RaSu

$BTC So, what’s the conclusion? If you believe that $58K was the cycle bottom, you are also implicitly assuming that Bitcoin’s upside impulse will continue losing roughly 80% of its strength every cycle. But there’s a problem with that assumption. The latest cycle already showed a different degree of compression: the impulse decreased by approximately 65.8%, not another ~80%. So if you continue applying an automatic −80% reduction despite the latest structural change, the projected upside keeps collapsing: 713% → ~143% → ~29% That would imply that the bull cycle after the next one produces only around 29% growth. In other words, the $58K-bottom thesis combined with a fixed −80% impulse-compression model eventually leads to a structure where Bitcoin’s upside becomes increasingly negligible. That’s why I don’t think you can simply take the historical ~80% compression and apply it mechanically to every future cycle. The rate of compression itself is changing. And that is the key point behind this entire analysis.