Papá. Executive Director, @CubaStudyGroup. Advisor, @PCubaEmprende. RT = noteworthy ≠ endorsement. Slow drilling thru brick walls. Antillano 🇺🇸🇪🇸🇵🇷🇨🇺
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Today @ForeignAffairs published a 2,800-word essay co-authored by @MJ_Busta and me on why Cuba should negotiate. TL;DR:
“The best path forward is a negotiated deal in which Havana makes concessions substantial enough for Trump to sell as a victory, and in so doing staves off a humanitarian collapse and puts Cuba on the road to recovery. Anything short of that raises the risk of deepening social unrest and U.S. military intervention to stabilize a cratering economy just 90 miles from Florida, an outcome both governments would prefer to avoid.” foreignaffairs.com/cuba/cuba…
The formula for Cuba messaging that resonates with persuadable Cuban American voters is simple: “Be tough on the government, easy on the Cuban people.” Demand accountability for authoritarian repression while supporting policies that empower everyday Cubans.
Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns were master classes in this approach. He carried Florida twice with record Cuban American support. Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell, who both flipped Miami-Dade congressional seats in 2018, also understood this.
Yet, for mystifying reasons, few other Democratic candidates have followed their example. Those who try to out-hardline the hardliners, or split the difference between DSA-style activists and voters, end up with muddled messages that risk costing them votes rather than winning new ones.
I don’t expect this election to be an exception.
It’s disappointing to have to say this, but @CBSNews, this is a serious failure of editorial reporting. I clearly state in this clip that while I have not personally been to Cuba, I have spoken with Cubans who have described it as a dictatorship, and I believe them. To claim I declined to answer the question is categorically false. That is not journalism. It is misinformation.
I really don’t mean to pile on here, but the full CBS clip isn’t better.
Again, the formula is simple: “Hard on the government, easy on the people.”
Ms. Nixon gets only half of it right, which is as good as getting it wrong: she criticizes counterproductive U.S. policy while refusing to acknowledge the authoritarian nature of Cuba’s single-party communist government.
She gets deportations right, which are heavily unpopular with Cuban Americans, but that’s separate from the character of the state they left behind, to which thousands are being sent back.
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
According to @EFEnoticias, a @StateDept official has said that after the announcement of a new Supreme Court in #Venezuela (projected by US officials for end of 2026), authorities will declare the “vacancy” of the presidency and hold a vote in 6 months efe.com/mundo/2026-10-26/gob…
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
After more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home.
"I am here. With you," Machado announced on X Sunday morning shortly before other members of the opposition confirmed her arrival without providing details. cnn.it/4slYBFE
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.
It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
Our reporting from 1958-59 shows the tenacity that propelled the Cuban rebels to power, and the uncertainty that followed. Read the second chapter of “Archive Cuba” now economist.com/interactive/th…
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
Checked like four times that this was real
Admittedly, I misread “discrete.” My sense is many within the Cuban government are deeply frustrated by the intransigence of their colleagues. Whether this message helps build consensus for change or deepens internal divisions remains to be seen. One thing remains clear, Cuba cannot recover without normalizing relations with the U.S.
Calling publicly for “a discreet partnership with the CIA” seems like a contradiction in terms. But more broadly, a brighter future in relations between former adversaries tends to flow downstream from security cooperation.
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
To those who seek to create positive change in Cuba - now is the time.
The disappointment of failed promises, corruption, and the privileged lives of only a few; seize this opportunity to create the change you desire through a discrete partnership with the CIA.
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
us special envoy steve witkoff to president putin: “you talk so much about my president, president trump, being a humanitarian. you are a humanitarian also, sir, and i salute that.”
truly hard to watch.
Ricardo Herrero retweeted
Spanish-language text messages hitting Miami smartphones to tout Florida’s Attorney General for his role in bringing charges against Raul Castro over the Brothers to the Rescue shootdown
Just in time for the kickoff of in-person early voting…
Miami judge signs warrant for Raul Castro on state charges in Brothers to Rescue case miamiherald.com/news/politic…
