Sucker for physical and mental torture. Building Spot AI, investing via The Explorer Fund, writing at https://xitter.gq/t.co/AZysGFLfVB
San Francisco, CA
Joined July 2007
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Evolution is a giant trial and error game, lots of bets placed and only few successful or lucky ones forwarded to next generation. It’s power law, scientific method, and market theory at insane scale. #evolution
This is really impressive but most people who did math competitions can get good at this really really quick.
2025 you will always need a 5 and that leaves 405, and then 5 again ( since it ends in 5 ) leaving 81 - which is 9^2. ( this is a sub second math ) and then it’s about how quickly you have trained your eyes to find the numbers from the cards.
Trying for an hour today with random cards but only making 2025 total - I could get 60seconds plus down to 20ish seconds. You can then layer on different numbers and train yourself really quickly.
Absolute masterpiece @iamjakestream - everyone should read it.
And this is not a phase, it is an irreversible trend.
Maybe the dumbest ideas I have had reading this - but we need a public market of accredited investors where companies can list with 10x less regulation and once they are between $50m - $200m in revenue. This unlocks a whole new ecosystem of investment which we might need.
Last night I was up till 12 - connecting all my agents ( Claude, grok, muse, ChatGPT, codex, instinct) to a single ai brain in @NotionHQ .
I also have a seperate copy in markdown files being maintained by @Google.
Brain 🧠 felt too important to have only 1 copy.
Let the swarming and deep workflows begin.
Tourist Visas is a pain most Americans don’t understand - it’s a piece of paper just to go see another culture or history and the fact that this piece of paper governs how much of the earth you can get access to see is insane in 21st century.
The paperwork from bank history, to employment history to visa offices being open for few hours in a few cities across usa 🇺🇸 is insane.
I am so glad @alymoursy is solving this with AI - super pumped for this project
Today we're launching @VeezaAI (YC F26) - an AI tourist visa agent for people with weak passports.
Yes, you read that right. Weak passports.
If you have a US or EU passport, you book a flight and go. For the rest of the world, every trip starts with forms, bank statements, and fighting for an appointment.
We've suffered through this for 30 years. Those days are coming to an end.
Pick your destination. Veeza AI does the paperwork and books the appointment.
start at: veeza.ai
I am sorry @adcock_brett - great promo - I was like let’s see how this promotions works and it tells me I am in luck and my favorite pizza from goop is available in promo - asks me to connect phone number and Gmail and then says sorry - it’s actually NOT available.
Bad user experience. Back to @bot and muse
We're giving away $1,000,000 of free pizza right now
Download and order from the Hark app: hark.com/download
Type "order a free pizza" in chat. It's first-come, first-served, delivered only in the U.S. (review details below)
I have never wanted to buy Tesla - it never appealed to the raw instincts of me but this - this one absolutely freaking hits me in the gut, you instantly want to feel that power in your hands, and you want to floor it
This might be the best graph of the day
Introducing The Cheeky Pint Benchmark.
We made our intern watch every episode of Cheeky Pint to bring you this breakdown of pints drank by guests to the nearest sixth.
Congratulations to @elonmusk who is currently in the lead with three full pints of Guinness.
Most men don't need more therapy-speak.
They need a problem hard enough that they forget to think about themselves for six months.
(why only men - I only have lived experience as a man, and therefore speaking as one)
Current AI thesis:
- data company
- inference company
- open weight model training
- hardware downstream of chips / robotics
- defense
What I am inspired by : cameras and how we can have more digital eyes than human eyes in the world - how to use that to build the best understanding of the world.
Happy to report that spot has two @spot_ai
1. We have 10,000 distributed NVIDIA gpus across the United States collecting and processing video data
2. 60+ million hours of data collected monthly of real world physical environments.
Excited to share in about a month what we have been cooking
This part of the post is not just about technology diversion but a far bigger social change that we are likely to witness this century.
Before machines in 19th and 20th century - farming and production were limited by how much labor you can gather. Big machines and factories made economies of scale favor rise of giant corporations.
Since intelligence ( general or super ) will have an inference cost, the companies / countries able to access large amounts of it - is going to create mega corporations.
We will see a $50 trillion company by 2050.
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
I have long believed this to be a ceos main job.
You have to constantly be expanding your TAM.
One thing I got wrong is TAM expansion means nothing if you can’t get yourself into dominant positions in your initial segments / markets
The importance of TAM expansion
Late night chat with @nakul led to a discussion about TAM expansion.
tldr Every great company needs to constantly and continuously expand their TAM and launch products / services that go after new customer behaviors and new addressable markets. In fact, you cannot be a generational company with just the same product / addressable market that you started with.
if Google had stayed search + ads + youtube only, we wouldn't have Chrome, GCP, Waymo, and many others.
if Facebook had only stayed Facebook and not done Insta or WhatsApp (or Muse!), the company would worth a fraction of what it is today.
Same for every other generational company
Seems obvious in retrospect but worth stating.
The year is 1965 - us economy is roaring and has grown 100x in 100 years.
The world economy is $2T and the American economy is $700 billion.
If you asked any economist that if 🇺🇸 will grow 100x again in next 100 years - the answer would be NO
Argument 1: we went from pigeons to telephone for communication, loudspeakers to radio/tv for entertainment, horses to cars and flights for travel, oil was discovered - energy and electricity become abundant, assembly line, big banks like J.P. Morgan etc etc. such rapid innovation won’t be repeated
Argument 2: world economy is $2T - for us to become $70T means we will be 35x world economy’s current size - a difficult thing for a linearly trained mind to understand.
Yet 60 years in - we are at 60x, we will grow faster than 100x.
Computers, internet, phone, self driving cars, ai that can talk, work and play complicated games, silicon chips that can compute a trillion times more, space and rockets, digital currency and prediction markets, biotech and so much more.
I met my very good friend’s godson yesterday. My friend is 66 and his godson is 18 - we discussed how we would live again if we were 18.
What are your best advice / reads for an 18 year old.
This is my heaven on earth.
No matter what is happening in the world, the country or the city or with me in my life.
Run through presidio to Chrissy fields and the most amazing views in the world and end it at this beautiful place.
Beautiful people. Good produce. Great views. Live music. Every Sunday
