Robb Willer (@RobbWiller) header
Robb Willer (@RobbWiller) profile picture

Professor of Sociology, Psychology, & OB @Stanford Direct @PASCL_Stanford and the AI for Public Benefit Lab (@ai4pb_stanford)

Palo Alto, CA
Joined August 2014
Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)Photo by Robb Willer (@RobbWiller)
Saturday's No Kings protests were massive, inclusive, and nonviolent. It was an honor to team up with @owasow to analyze how nonviolent resistance can wins hearts, minds, and elections.
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Robb Willer retweeted
Even if you're familiar with the nationalization of politics and @dhopkins1776's brilliant book, the the uniformity of the senate shift in '26 is striking
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Hinojosa: I say that the left right paradigm just does not meet the moment of our time. What this is about is about 99.9% of us in the same boat against like 15 billionaire tech guys who are controlling government…
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Here’s Gina Hinojosa manifesting her election as governor in her high school yearbook (via kitannarae on TikTok)
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People in Minneapolis placed “I Voted” stickers on memorials dedicated to Renee Good and Alex Pretti on Election Day.
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From our FirstView: "Economic Self-Interest and Support for Redistribution: New Evidence Using Election Results Data" by Jieun Lee, E. Grant Baldwin, @markarian_g, Benjamin J. Newman. buff.ly/3MP27Bj
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Here's the under/over performance in some key Senate races, using 2024 presidential results + 2026 national environment as the baseline expectation
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This contentious interchange between the NY Times and @GinaHinojosaTX was truly amazing. Hinojosa offered one of the best explanations of populism I've ever seen. Her comments were a total rejection of Corporate Dems' neoliberal formula. Her Texas victory is a game changer.
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We find that Democratic counters have little effect and Republican counters have modest effects. But the Joe Rogan/Tucker Carlson counter almost halves following and significantly lowers issue-specific and overall Trump approval.
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The promised forward-looking competition to forecast research results, with 1M+ in prizes committed. 500k+ in the first round:
New working paper: Can AI forecast treatment effects in economics from pre-registration documents? Answer: Yes. 1/
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what a graph
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Using the Many Authors data, Claude counts 34-40 unretracted papers in which Gino was responsible for a study and no co-author reports seeing the data, and Claude also says these papers have been cited over 1000 times since 2024.
A new document was just posted on the Gino Case. It's 48 pages long. I asked Claude to summarize it (See below). The counterclaim of defamation by Harvard against Gino is still pending.
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Stevens made a list of demands of Abdul - denouncing not just one dumb ad from an outside group but also apologizing for other statements she didn’t like and pulling another ad that included Tucker Carlson - all to keep her endorsement while ALSO saying her endorsement was never in doubt. Did Stevens make any demands of Rogers to earn her support?
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I think frontier labs have an ethical responsibility to make efforts to communicate to the public about the risks they’re taking proportionate to the scale and severity of those risks, even if they believe (and are correct about) their work improving the odds that things go well.
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Problem solved! 🙃
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There's a vogue for what I call the Techno-Optimist Fallacy, wrongly inferring "all instances of technological progress are good" from the true premise "technological progress has been very good on average." There are many counter-examples. slowboring.com/p/the-techno-…
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New blogpost: my lab's AI policies and norms. I'm trying to figure out how researchers should make use of AI to accelerate discovery without letting it replace human understanding or falling off the "slop cliff." Here are some ideas. babieslearninglanguage.blogs…
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The Filedrawer.org platform includes a “light pass” review layer that checks every reported estimate against the result tables and every analysis against the pre-analysis plan. I’ve also been adding integrations for automated reviewers: Coarse, @RefineDotInk, OpenAIReview, and my colleague @JunyanJiang’s new system Edyth. If you file a study on Filedrawer, you can use Edyth for free on that report (thanks @JunyanJiang!) A neat thing about pointing automated review systems at these reports is that they can help you motivate follow-up studies.
A couple of weeks ago, @RobbWiller mentioned creating a public resource that generates automated research reports as a way of addressing publication bias. After many rounds of tinkering, I’ve created a repository for my own site, but I'm opening it up to anyone who wants to contribute. Filedrawer.org is an agent-friendly platform that takes an existing project, creates a report, runs a light pass that checks every reported estimate against the results and every analysis against the pre-analysis plan, and suggests new research designs with downloadable QSFs so you or other scholars can extend the work. Reports can even obtain a DOI! You host all data and scripts on GitHub, with Filedrawer.org only hosting metadata from your public repo. It checks locally for PII before you post, lets you import outside reviews, and you can use either local open-weight models or proprietary models via @OpenRouter. I’m committing to host it, as I already have several projects there, and thanks to GitHub, hosting the metadata is very cheap. No individual-level data reach Filedrawer.org or the models: they see only the survey schema, the plan, and aggregate results. Right now, it handles survey experiments, conjoints and methods comparisons, since that’s my wheelhouse. It’s open source, so if your work is observational, qualitative or field-based, I’d love help extending it.
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A couple of weeks ago, @RobbWiller mentioned creating a public resource that generates automated research reports as a way of addressing publication bias. After many rounds of tinkering, I’ve created a repository for my own site, but I'm opening it up to anyone who wants to contribute. Filedrawer.org is an agent-friendly platform that takes an existing project, creates a report, runs a light pass that checks every reported estimate against the results and every analysis against the pre-analysis plan, and suggests new research designs with downloadable QSFs so you or other scholars can extend the work. Reports can even obtain a DOI! You host all data and scripts on GitHub, with Filedrawer.org only hosting metadata from your public repo. It checks locally for PII before you post, lets you import outside reviews, and you can use either local open-weight models or proprietary models via @OpenRouter. I’m committing to host it, as I already have several projects there, and thanks to GitHub, hosting the metadata is very cheap. No individual-level data reach Filedrawer.org or the models: they see only the survey schema, the plan, and aggregate results. Right now, it handles survey experiments, conjoints and methods comparisons, since that’s my wheelhouse. It’s open source, so if your work is observational, qualitative or field-based, I’d love help extending it.
Replying to @YamilRVelez
This is really cool. It would be great to make a publicly accessible "turn your old data into short research reports" resource that anyone could use to put their old data out there as working papers. It would help with some file-drawer problems.
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