Ryan retweeted
Hi everyone, we’ve been working on something 🙏🏼 I’ve written a second letter to Andy Burnham, alongside 360 sports people, to urge him to meet with me and fund research into my much neglected health issue which impacts millions of others.
I can’t believe 360 people signed in just 1 week, so many amazing names and messages still coming in of people wanting to add theirs (so feel free to message to add yours, we’re keeping on the pressure!!!)
The list includes 114 Olympians, with 77 medals between them (and that’s not even including Worlds and Europeans 🤯). Also some huge names from football and many other sports!!
Thank you SO much to everyone that signed, I can’t tell you how much it means to me when I’m truly at rock bottom ❤️❤️❤️
I know everyone wants their issues taken seriously, but this has been neglected like nothing else. WE HAVE 0 APPROVED TREATMENTS!!! Please listen 🙏🏼 @andyburnham @number10gov @UKLabour @DHSCgovuk
Ryan retweeted
Not a lot going on in the Middle East.
Russia still going nowhere.
North American surplus unchanged.
Chinese demand ticking higher.
Ryan retweeted
Saudi Aramco and Singapore just announced an initial arrangement to store Saudi crude at Jurong Rock Caverns beginning in the 2nd half of 2027.
Jurong Rock Caverns, some specs:
• Capacity: 1.47M m³ (~9.25M bbl)
• 5 caverns, 9 storage galleries
• Depth: 150m underground
• Owned by JTC, operated by Vopak
• Stores crude oil & condensate
• Phase II expansion (~1.3M m³) was proposed, but no confirmed start date
#oott
Ryan retweeted
The POWER in my hand ✋🏻 This is a slice of Western Link sub sea cable.
At 600kV DC and 2.25GW continuous rating, this segmented copper, paper / polypropylene HVDC cable is the highest voltage power cable in use IN THE WORLD and the highest power single cable IN THE WORLD 🏴🏴😍
Ryan retweeted
We can't brute force compute all possible moves in Go, a static game with a simple 19 x 19 grid, yet somehow people think we're going to simulate a dynamic system of trillions of cells each containing trillions of molecules.
If you had an exponential amount of compute you could solve simulate biology exactly and wouldn't need to run any experiments.
Some of you will think "of course, but that's an unrealistic assumption" and others will think "no, you need experiments even with that much compute. That's just How It's Done".
You would of course need evaluations once you have a solution, but you don't in principle need experiments to find it: Experiments are a way to save compute, dating from a time when it was much more expensive.
And I think the presentation is exponential but real systems aren't irreducibly exponential. AlphaFold worked, after all.
Ryan retweeted
The problem for Indonesia is that foreign countries such as Singapore are prepared to pay more for gas , than what their own citizens can afford.
Indonesia earns approximately S$2.15 billion annually from supplying Singapore with natural gas, making Singapore a commercially important export market.
However, Singapore has diversified its supplies. LNG now accounts for nearly 60% of its total natural gas supply. 
This means an Indonesian decision to halt gas exports would impose a huge economic cost on Indonesia, while creating smaller supply-replacement challenges for Singapore.
The impact would not necessarily be symmetrical.
Ryan retweeted
Everyone should check out this new game: Crude Desk
The game is modeled after fast-paced trading floor tests used by commodities firms during job interviews. You play as a junior trader supporting a head trader on a desk, making rapid-fire decisions as complexity ramps up each level
Crude Desk was created by Deacon Larson, a University of Southern California student and former commodities trading intern
Try to beat me on the leaderboard! #oott
Ryan retweeted
Heard some funny stories about LLM trading experiments.
Some folks still haven't figured out that making a walk-forward backtest with a LLM model in the loop that actually was actually trained on the whole period is just a slightly subtler lookahead bias.
Ryan retweeted
The entirely unsurprising erosion of what new entrant grid batteries can expect to earn has come around shockingly fast... and before annual NEM share has even hit 2%.
Ryan retweeted
Lets not forget that an LLM can write code so fast today only because of the trillions of lines of code that were written by hand and released as open source. Try writing COBOL, ALGOL, or Eiffel with an LLM, where the training corpus is minimal, and then tell me.
Ryan retweeted
Not just the back end bidding up—Brent front vs M12 21d rolling correlation is dumping to levels unseen since last spring’s prompt spike(uncertainty blowout).
Setup flipped completely. Front is grinding slow, but long dated paper is rallying faster than back then.
Back end decoupling from the front signals a regime shift. Time to reprice the "crude dumps once this ends" consensus.
#oott #iran
The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
Ryan retweeted
Okay, so matrix multiplication on silicon isn’t thinking, but the flow of sodium ions through protein channels embedded in a lipid bilayer is?
Why do materialists turn to animist reasoning when the substrate is carbon-based instead of silicon?
Ryan retweeted
The Olympic sprinter now bedbound for 22 hours a day bbc.in/3TWaqpx
Ryan retweeted
people probably find that last claim about "obviation" provocative and exaggerated, but I mean it. and that's just the start...if you properly document your infrastructure and network topology, you can graduate to having it manage the entire research platform/stack for you.
Ryan retweeted
I'll say it again for the AI risk experts in the back:
We've already run a real life, large scale experiment on what happens when a superintelligence is unleashed on a narrow objective.
Look no further than U.S. capital markets.
Millions of investors, analysts, traders and algorithms, backed by trillions of dollars and wired together through prices, all chasing one goal: the highest risk-adjusted return on capital.
And it is spectacularly good at its job. It funds the best ideas, punishes the worst ones, and turns new information into prices faster than any of us can react. No individual can out-think it. 99+ percent of professionals can't beat it.
But look at what else it's done along the way:
- Optimized the measure instead of the intent. Quarterly earnings became the scoreboard, so companies learned to manage the scoreboard.
- Treated anything without a price as free. Pollution, addiction, obesity, depression, political fragmentation, fragile supply chains, the long-term health of the communities it operates in.
- Found every gap in the rules, then paid lobbyists to help write the next set and pull up the ladder behind incumbents.
- Remade the world around its objective. Companies, pension funds and our retirement accounts now answer to the S&P 500.
- Made itself impossible to switch off, because everything else now depends on it.
None of this required malice. Nobody sat in a room and chose these outcomes. It's simply what a very capable optimizer does when its objective is a narrow proxy for what we actually care about.
And note that we never solved this alignment problem. We've managed it, imperfectly, with regulation, taxes, disclosure rules and the occasional crisis to show us where the guardrails were missing. Over time, the market has captured the instutions designed to constrain it. We've been at it the better part of a century, and the misalignment is the worst it's ever been.
So the next time someone tells you AI is only dangerous if it "wants" something bad, or if its goals are mis-specified, point them at the S&P 500. It doesn't want anything. It just optimizes.
That's the whole problem.
Ryan retweeted
Finally launching OverwatchX Mosaic!
The latest available satellite imagery, assess tanker traffic, spot STS, and inspect oil and gas infrastructure. Track damage and activity in Saudi Arabia, Israel, or Iran. See any new hits in Yanbu, Hormuz, or anywhere else all on one page.
