Sean Sebold retweeted
I’m glad the conversation has shifted in this direction…and I am glad others are beginning to understand it. But all this started back in 2008 with QE and “abundant reserve” monetary policy. Both Warsh, and the WSJ, supported this overreaction in monetary policy. It wasn’t actually needed. And counterfactual proof that it worked is nonsense. Before QE, there was an active market for short-term interest rates and banks all had Federal Funds Trading Desks (FFTD). The Fed could influence the rate by adding or subtracting reserves, but banks traded billions of dollars of overnight money every day. After QE, banks are flooded with reserves and all those FFTD’s are gone. There is no longer a market for federal funds. So, where does the funds rate come from? Well, the Fed just makes it up. In short, it is “price fixing”. The Fed literally makes up the cost of money in the short-term. They claim there are market signals, but this signals are distorted by heavy-handed capital and liquidity rules and regulations. So, while the market may influence long-term rates, it has no say in short-term rates. The only way to fix this is do QT until there are no excess reserves anymore and banks start trading federal funds again. We are a long way from that. There are massive losses on both bank books and the Fed’s balance sheet, more losses than the subprime market had in 2008. We have had 40-year highs in inflation. The Treasury funded trillions of dollars of government growth at artificially low rates (basically 0%) The market waits for the Fed to tell it what short-term rates are and has no input itself. This entire QE experiment has been a failure.
Today’s WSJ @WSJopinion picks up on this same point about interpreting different reasons for rising yields.
Sean Sebold retweeted
Economics in One Lesson should be mandatory reading for every single high school student.
Economics in One Lesson: The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics a.co/d/0f10VRyY
Average rate of return for the Nasdaq composite from 1/1/2000 for 20 years until 1/1/2020 is 4.03%...
Sean Sebold retweeted
The market has been open for 45 minutes.
$FMCC volume 2,980,720
$FMNA volume 6,625,597
These companies should not be on the OTC.
@pulte @SecScottBessent @BillAckman @michaeljburry
Sean Sebold retweeted
𝗩𝗗𝗛: 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗦 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗔𝗠𝗘 𝗗𝗜𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡.
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why.
His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris — these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachés, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war — they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
𝗔𝗹 𝗝𝗮𝘇𝗲𝗲𝗿𝗮. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera — the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel — is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘯.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming — Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through — and he believes he will — the regime falls. Not in years. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻.
𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗼, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝘀𝗮𝘆. 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮.
Sean Sebold retweeted
“Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests.
Wow.
Sean Sebold retweeted
ICE conducts targeted operations to enforce federal immigration laws that have existed for decades, and they do it with the utmost professionalism. They don’t choose who gets deported, the law and federal judges do. They didn’t pass the laws nor can they change them. If you don’t like the laws, take it up with Congress. That’s their constitutional duty…ours is enforcing them.
facebook.com/share/v/1Bm3jcZ…
Where did this guy go?
Show this to an ICE protester, watch them jump through hoops to square the circle. Show this to your Democrat friends or family and watch them show you the decay of critical thought, politics and culture. They cannot answer how they still support Barack Obama like a saint, but oppose strict immigration policy. Why is EVERY conservative media platform not playing this on rerun? Because half of them are in on the theater.
Honestly, I don’t know how else to say it other than I’m embarrassed for people. Genuinely embarrassed that we are so in need of superficial “revolution”, we let them doctor up a fake narrative to risk our lives for as citizens. But again, half of y’all talk about rights and don’t even believe in the word citizenship. If you did, you would agree there’s an illegal immigration problem. Barack Obama said 500,000 is too many, we let in 15 million. Can a Democrat, Liberal, Leftist, square this circle for me?
Royce White for U.S. Senate MN 2026
America 1st, Just Right™️
Sean Sebold retweeted
Seems like a good time to re-up this invaluable piece of advice from Chris Rock
Sean Sebold retweeted
Campaign contributions from the American Federation of Teachers to Democrats:
1996: 99.1%
1998: 98.9%
2000: 99.2%
2002: 99.3%
2004: 98.0%
2006: 99.1%
2008: 99.1%
2010: 99.4%
2012: 99.4%
2014: 99.0%
2016: 99.7%
2018: 99.8%
2020: 99.6%
2022: 99.97%
2024: 99.89%
Money laundering.
2.7% is an unacceptable level of inflation. Interest rates are too low. This is why the Fed should be independent. They should be able to make the hard decisions. They won't. Look at gold, look at silver.
Sean Sebold retweeted
Students, can we count on you to be our 12th man this Saturday? Take a look at all of the great incentives you could score just by showing up 💪
#TTR
Sean Sebold retweeted
The longest home winning streak in Division I college football currently belongs to Villanova at 21 games actually.
