sudhir

Now that the 131st Amendment Bill failed, allocation of Lok Sabha seats will be based on 2026 census data. As per current estimates, seven States will likely lose 35 seats: AP (-5), Telangana (-3), TN (-10), Karnataka (-2), Kerala (-7), Odisha (-4), and WB (-4). Four States will likely gain 34 seats: UP (+12), Bihar (+10), MP (+5), and Rajasthan (+7). BJP is widely believed to be the potential beneficiary of redistribution of seats to States based on 2026 population. In a stunning act of self-denial, the NDA government came forward to freeze the current share of States based on the 1971 census data. There could be many reasons for BJP committing to such a freeze - putting the nation above the party, paving the way for expanding their footprint in the South, or avoiding a divisive issue when the nation has to focus on growth and prosperity in the face of global challenges. Whatever be the motivation of BJP, the seven States that lost share of population are offered an unexpected gift. You don't look a gift horse in the mouth! Surprisingly, the parties which have great stakes in the South and East have scored a spectacular self goal. This is a classic case of cutting the nose to spite the face. In 2001, as the freeze in seats was expiring, I was deeply involved in persuading the then Vajpayee government to continue the freeze in the number of seats allocated to States for another 25 years. An unwieldy coalition and the economic challenge posed by external sanctions after the Pokharan explosion demanded national unity, and the parties responded with the 84th Amendment. Now again a priceless opportunity arose, and the Opposition squandered it without any strategic thinking. If political animosity makes you oblivious of your own interest, or larger interests of fostering unity and focusing on growth and harmony, it is a sign of dysfunctional politics. I appeal to all parties to come together and find a harmonious solution to the thorny problem of seats allocation in the face of demographic imbalances. National unity and our quest for opportunity and prosperity for all demand a fair and swift resolution. In the long run migration will resolve the imbalances. Already millions of migrant workers are building and sustaining the economies of several States in the South, West and North. That is why, despite low fertility rate, Maharashtra's share of the population is increasing. In the US, dramatic internal migration changed the demography and representation over the years. People move freely to States where there is growth and jobs are created. In a century, Florida increased its representation in the US Congress from 4 to 28, California from 11 to 52, Texas from 18 to 38, and Washington from 5 to 10. Owing to outward migration, New York lost seats, from 43 to 26, Pennsylvania from 36 to 17, Illinois from 27 to 17, Ohio from 22 to 15, and Missouri from 16 to 8. We should make it easy for people to migrate to other States and recognize and respect their constitutional rights everywhere and make their life easier and safe. That will resolve our demographic challenges. Most states reached low fertility levels, and Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan and Jharkhand too are going to reach there in a few years. We need a reasoned and pragmatic approach to grow together and become strong. Let us persuade parties to shed inflammatory and divisive rhetoric and focus on quality education and skills and opportunities for all.

Once 'relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published ' (Art 82), the allocation of seats to States will be based on the new census figures automatically, unless n new amendment is incorporated in the Constitution. It is not true that the freeze on number of seats allotted as per 1971 census will continue after the 2026 census. An amendment to the constitution is necessary to freeze the seats.