Research Associate @cissmunich | @PRIOresearch Research School Member | pol. violence & instability | analog player in a digital world | aggressively mediocre
Germany
Joined April 2015
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Christian Oswald retweeted
1/ Happy to share that "Factorial Difference-in-Differences" (FDID), with Anqi Zhao and @pengding00, is out in JASA - ACS. doi.org/10.1080/01621459.202…
It has been a truly thrilling experience working with Anqi and Peng.
Christian Oswald retweeted
Our paper “Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide” is now published in the Journal of Economic Literature. It took us a while but we are happy!
We put together a lot of material to make the paper useful in practice: psantanna.com/JEL-DiD/
Hope you like!
Christian Oswald retweeted
In political science and economics, a small set of instruments (e.g., rainfall, population, regional characteristics) has been used to identify many endogenous effects. This "collectively" invalidates the instruments. Our paper @ISQ_Jrnl provides a solution for causal identification using non-linearities in the first-stage estimation.
doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqag020
Christian Oswald retweeted
1/🧵 A major update to our paper: "Scaling Reproducibility" w/ @YangYang_Leo.
We move beyond reanalyzing a single design to (almost) full-paper replication!
Paper: bit.ly/repro-ai
Christian Oswald retweeted
4w ago I was a Claude Code skeptic. I'm not a coder. None of the use cases were relevant. I managed teams & projects, drowning in email & overdue reminders. So I tried creating tools that would help me and... holy crap.
Now I'm sharing the tools I built:
claudeblattman.com/
Christian Oswald retweeted
1/ 🐎 Our gift for the Year of the Horse:
An AI-assisted workflow that scales reproducibility in empirical research. w/ @YangYang_Leo
Paper: bit.ly/repro-ai
Christian Oswald retweeted
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
Christian Oswald retweeted
Hi all, I've uploaded the 2025 update to my PhD Applied Econometrics slides:
➡️ More on regression & causality
➡️ Dynamic panel data models
➡️ Streamlined diff-in-diff extensions
➡️ More on spillover effects
➡️ Results from new papers on many topics
Link in the original tweet
Hi #Econtwitter, I'd like to share the slides from the PhD Applied Econometrics course I just had the privilege to teach at @AreBerkeley
Regression & causality, selection on observables, panel data, IV, RDD --- usual topics but hopefully in a modern way
github.com/borusyak/are213
Christian Oswald retweeted
This spring I'm GSI-ing graduate formal models. I struggled with proofs at first, and it's not part of math camp so I drafted a guide. I'm sharing it in the spirit of public goods / in case some are interested; I'd be grateful for comments/feedback! dropbox.com/scl/fi/qby8xnfni…
Christian Oswald retweeted
A Critical Look at the Issue of Causal Inference
@DeatonAngus and Nancy Cartwright raise doubts about the view that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) should be assigned a special status. See sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
For a response by @guido_imbens, see: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Christian Oswald retweeted
Glad this paper with @guido_imbens is out in the JEP.
The LaLonde paper has had a big impact on my academic journey and continues to teach us about the challenges and possibilities of conducting credible inference using nonexperimental data. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Many thanks to Tim for the tireless editing and suggestions. @TimothyTTaylor
Christian Oswald retweeted
New software: "Projoint: The One Stop Conjoint Stop" (with @aaronrkaufman & @YusakuHoriuchi), makes conjoint surveys easier & less biased, including everything from a drag-and-drop web survey design tool to specialized analysis software. Comments welcome. yhoriuchi.github.io/projoint…
Christian Oswald retweeted
If you have been curious about which topics are increasing in popularity in econ, @paulgp has a new tool for you!
paulgp.com/econlit-pipeline/…
This lets you search over AER and AEJ's + 30k NBER WP!
Very neat!
Christian Oswald retweeted
How do promotion prospects drive patterns of repression in China? @baggottcarter, Jonghyuk Lee, and I find that the most promising officials hesitate to use repression for fear of backlash riots, except for in separatist regions journals.uchicago.edu/doi/ep…
Christian Oswald retweeted
Latest from my colleagues at Forecasting Research Institute (FRI):
Superforecasters still outperform top LLMs.
But for how much longer?
Linear extrapolation from recent ForecastBench data suggests LLMs will surpass top humans in November 2026.
And linear extrapolation is itself a tough benchmark for both humans & LLMs to beat
🔮 When will AI forecasters match top human forecasters at predicting the future?
In a recent @cowenconvos podcast episode, @NateSilver538 said 10–15 years while @tylercowen predicted 1–2 years.
Who was right? Our updated AI forecasting benchmark, ForecastBench, suggests that Tyler Cowen is more likely to be right.
Christian Oswald retweeted
Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @The_JOP paper with @jenjpan & @xuyiqing, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/734267🧵
Christian Oswald retweeted
Whoa—my book is up for pre-order!
Model to meaning: How to interpret Statistical & ML Models in #RStats and #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
Note: The web version stays free forever.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
Christian Oswald retweeted
"Political violence in democracies: An Introduction" that I coauthored with Ursula Daxecker & Neeraj Prasad is now out & open access, @JPR_journal . We introduce 14 excellent articles and discuss the state of research on political violence in democracies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/ful…
