US journo + editor; Hromadske, New Yorker, AJE, et al; mieszkam w Warszawie Signal: at thephatic dot 39
Joined March 2009
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randy r potts retweeted
With a dedication to Polish "realists".
Russia, in late 2026, is again demanding that Poland withdraws from NATO.
Suspicious is an understatement, since these talks are supposed to be about Ukraine but not like they are hiding their ambitions.
Россия на переговорах в Абу-Даби потребовала вернуть НАТО к границам 1997 года
ift.tt/tKM4yNv
randy r potts retweeted
This report makes some people, like Elon, look treasonous, but it perfectly explains the confusion around the shutdown of Starlink/Starshield a couple of weeks ago, as well as the simultaneous pinning of a U.S. satellite by a Russian one.
Model IV- Devastating Results: In October, Elon Musk didn't just throttle Ukraine on the ground: SpaceX coordinated with Russia in orbit to freeze ICEYE-X36 so Russia could extract U.S. radar and battery tech, compromising U.S. and NATO satellite sovereignty. Our new 28-page quantitative study, 3-page Executive Brief, and 5-Act orbital animation prove the structural damage across the Western kill chain and global commodity markets. (Pete Hegseth and Emil Michael played direct role. Is the White House complicit? It's hard to see how they are not.)
Since Project CORONA in 1958, Moscow chased U.S. spy satellites for 68 years with zero close-hold successes because Russian radars are blind across 265.1 degrees of Earth. In June 2026, U.S./NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 easily escaped a Russian approach in 60.8 minutes.
68 Years in 41 Hours: How Elon Musk Helped Russia Shatter U.S. and NATO Satellite Supremacy 👇
-The Ground Throttle Failed, Triggering the Orbital Brake: Following the Oct 9 Putin-Trump call and Russian diesel waiver (OFAC GL 135), SpaceX capped Ukrainian military Starshield terminals at 101-161 km/h on Oct 13-14 (-22.98% daily drone intercepts, p = 0.0019). Yet autonomous drones guided by U.S. NRO/NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 struck Rosneft's Ryazan refinery on Oct 15 AM anyway. Hours later (04:15:44Z), SpaceX posted a misleading 401m Starlink collision alert (internal v1-v4 pass: 1.93-2.00 km) to freeze X36 under FCC Condition 16 (-96.64% maneuver drop) while 31,000 Stargaze cameras tracked Russia's COSMOS 2612 sprinting into a 640m hold for 41.4 to 47.7 hours.
-Tech Extraction, Prague Wipe & Finland's Seizure: At 640m (+57.9 dB / 616,068x flux gain), Russia recorded X36's Title 50 1,200 MHz radar template to track both X36 and twin X37 from 500+ km away (+13.85 to +26.86 dB standoff SNR). On Oct 18, COSMOS 2612 timed Stellar Exploration's shared 8S battery 2-orbit thruster lockout (191.12 min), firing its departure burn +0.67 seconds after X36 recharged. Within 24 hours (Oct 19), Stellar cut U.S. ownership in Prague from 85% to 33% (Notice OV12312900) to block DoD audits, SpaceX onboarded Chinese operators into Space Safety (Oct 6 & 16), and on Nov 5 Finland stripped commercial ICEYE of command over its 3 military radar satellites.
-245 NRO Spy Sats Exposed & The 6.3-Min Hormuz Warning: All 245 classified NRO Starshield satellites (348 active hulls) fly in that exact compromised 525-559 km shell (confirmed Oct 28 by Putin on live TV praising orbital coordination with "Mr. Musk"). Perched 66-99s behind X36 on its descending orbit from Ryazan/Kyiv (~08:02Z) to Qeshm Island/Hormuz (~08:09Z) and Diego Garcia (~08:18Z), Russia now gives Tehran a live 4.6-7.1 min blind-spot warning (corroborated Nov 7 at Qeshm) while locking COSMOS 2611 and 2613 onto twin ICEYE-X37.
-Pentagon Enablement, Depleted Magazines & Two Market Shocks: Handed $11.88B+ in CoCo contracts by Sec Def Hegseth and CTO Emil Michael ($5M-$25M xAI sale 72h before seizing Maven and cutting CENTCOM reviewers 16-to-1), unthrottled spring AI targeting and Iranian salvos left U.S. forces with 3.7-5.5 Patriot raids and forced 74%-86% of 5th Fleet destroyers off-station to reload at Diego Garcia (LTG Sylvia fired Oct 28). Market impact splits into two unpooled shocks: (1) freezing X36 cut Ryazan restrikes 76.4% (p = 0.0000337), restoring +122.15 kb/d for GL 135 until Nov 4-5 restrikes stranded 4 diesel tankers; and (2) 5th Fleet VLS reload lag collapsed unescorted Hormuz clean products 81.2% (-2.923 mb/d), driving LR2 TC20 to $21.86M and 4:3 Gasoil/Brent cracks to $85.14-$89.43/bbl.
5-Act orbital animation and 3-page Companion Executive Brief attached. Link to the full downloadable 28-page Sovereign & Market Risk Exposure Report in reply below.
randy r potts retweeted
According to the report, Elon Musk called in a false collision report to stall the American satellite for 40 hours so the Russian one could approach it. 4/
randy r potts retweeted
A security agent for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just warned the reporters here — for Hegseth’s first press conference in 6 months — that we will be physically removed from the briefing room if we are not professional and maintain decorum. We asked if that meant no shouted questions and got no clarity. It’s the first time any of us could ever remember being threatened like this. Shouted questions are normal. “This is crazy town” one journalist said, noting the White House has never threatened reporters like that. We’re in the room, back row:
randy r potts retweeted
Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk, Piotr Naimski, Benjamin Nathans, Franziska Davies, Mykola Riabchuk, Stefanie Eisenhuth, Yosyf Zisels and others are coming together at the Pilecki Institute!
Join us for "The Making of Solidarity", a two-day conference bringing together scholars, cultural practitioners, legendary dissidents and participants in Eastern and Central Europe’s opposition movements.
Check the full agenda and register here: forms.gle/oTa46KSrGF2RpvwF6
What can we learn from dissident and opposition movements of the past? How did they differ across countries? What insights do they offer into the challenges we face today, from rising populism and authoritarianism to algorithm-driven disinformation and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine?
On 16–17 November, we will explore these questions through research, literature and first-hand testimony. The conference agenda includes:
🔹 An opening keynote by Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk, followed by Benjamin Nathans and Franziska Davies discussing how we write the history of dissent and whose voices remain overlooked.
🔹 A conversation with KOR co-founder Piotr Naimski about building solidarity, alongside a presentation by Jan Skórzyński on the Workers’ Defense Committee.
🔹 A conversation with Ukrainian dissident and human rights activist Yosyf Zisels about a life of dissent.
🔹 Contributions from Mykola Riabchuk, Tereza Hendl, Andrii Portnov, Radomyr Mokryk, Noemi Smolik and many others, exploring cultural opposition, anti-imperial critique and the texts and networks that carried dissent across borders.
Organised by the Pilecki Institute Berlin in cooperation with the Jan Nowak-Jeziorański College of Eastern Europe in Wrocław (KEW) and the Stus Center.
📅 16–17 November 2026
📍 Pilecki Institute Berlin
The Making of Solidarity
A Conference on Eastern and Central European Dissidents
@InstPileckiego
@ThePileckiInst
@edwardlucas
@TimothyDSnyder
@EdwardGLuce
@evayavkubi
randy r potts retweeted
Join us next week. I’ll be speaking about more than East-Central European dissent, also accounting for the long lineages of liberation movements in Central and Northern Asia, based on our work with Turkmen-Qazaq scholar of transitional justice @DurdiyevaSelbi
Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk, Piotr Naimski, Benjamin Nathans, Franziska Davies, Mykola Riabchuk, Stefanie Eisenhuth, Yosyf Zisels and others are coming together at the Pilecki Institute!
Join us for "The Making of Solidarity", a two-day conference bringing together scholars, cultural practitioners, legendary dissidents and participants in Eastern and Central Europe’s opposition movements.
Check the full agenda and register here: forms.gle/oTa46KSrGF2RpvwF6
What can we learn from dissident and opposition movements of the past? How did they differ across countries? What insights do they offer into the challenges we face today, from rising populism and authoritarianism to algorithm-driven disinformation and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine?
On 16–17 November, we will explore these questions through research, literature and first-hand testimony. The conference agenda includes:
🔹 An opening keynote by Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk, followed by Benjamin Nathans and Franziska Davies discussing how we write the history of dissent and whose voices remain overlooked.
🔹 A conversation with KOR co-founder Piotr Naimski about building solidarity, alongside a presentation by Jan Skórzyński on the Workers’ Defense Committee.
🔹 A conversation with Ukrainian dissident and human rights activist Yosyf Zisels about a life of dissent.
🔹 Contributions from Mykola Riabchuk, Tereza Hendl, Andrii Portnov, Radomyr Mokryk, Noemi Smolik and many others, exploring cultural opposition, anti-imperial critique and the texts and networks that carried dissent across borders.
Organised by the Pilecki Institute Berlin in cooperation with the Jan Nowak-Jeziorański College of Eastern Europe in Wrocław (KEW) and the Stus Center.
📅 16–17 November 2026
📍 Pilecki Institute Berlin
The Making of Solidarity
A Conference on Eastern and Central European Dissidents
@InstPileckiego
@ThePileckiInst
@edwardlucas
@TimothyDSnyder
@EdwardGLuce
@evayavkubi
randy r potts retweeted
He always looks a little sad that he has to do this to people, but they left him no choice.
randy r potts retweeted
why aren't we talking about this non-stop? this is one of the most unhinged war crimes Europe has ever seen. ever.
55 murdered. 19 are still missing under the rubble. russian mega bombs pulverised so many civilians in this underground shelter in Komyshuvakha that it has been over a week since the rescue operation began, and it is still ongoing.
@NPU_GOV_UA
randy r potts retweeted
BREAKING. #France attributes to #Iran the #cyberattacks on supermarket #fridges —which took place overnight from October 11 to October 12 in over 700 retail locations across France. This cyber-offensive, carried out for the purpose of sabotage and resulting in tens of millions of euros in damages, is linked to the Shahid Kaveh unit, an entity affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/presse…
randy r potts retweeted
Jestem Białorusinem, który od 14 roku życia działał w podziemiu demokratycznym, przeszedł przez reżimowe areszty i na własnej skórze miał "przyjemność" odczuć, czym jest OMON (odpowiednik ZOMO).
I z pełną odpowiedzialnością mogę stwierdzić, że jeśli ktoś w Polsce chce zobaczyć, jak wyglądają białoruskie standardy, musi włączyć TV Republika.
Bo ta siermiężna propaganda, toporne manipulacje i chamstwo są na poziomie najgorszych wzorców białoruskiej telewizji reżimowej.
Ten pański "dom wolnego słowa" jest w rzeczywistości ściekiem i rynsztokiem.
Szanowni Państwo,
Do białoruskich standardów zastraszania dziennikarzy, którzy relacjonowali wydarzenia na krakowskim rynku dołączyło kierownictwo RTV Euro AGD. Apeluje o całkowity bojkot tej firmy, zwracanie już zamówionych towarów, rozmowy z sąsiadami i przyjaciółmi na temat szkodliwości korzystania z tej sieci. Na wolnym rynku nie może być tolerancji dla niszczenia wolności słowa. Tym razem chodzi nie tylko o wolność słowa ale także o osobiste bezpieczeństwo każdego z nas, które zostało zagrożone nieudolnością władzy wobec terroryzmu.
Tomasz Sakiewicz
randy r potts retweeted
The floods in Gaza are not because of the autumn rain but because of the Israeli genocide that destroyed drainage systems and blocked up water courses with the debris from its bombardment.
@netanyahu and his cohort need to be in the Hague answering the warrant from the @IntlCrimCourt
randy r potts retweeted
1/ Transcript of Trump's remarks on Ukraine on CBS '60 Minutes':
ROSS DOUTHAT: You came into office promising to make peace in Ukraine.
TRUMP: Yeah.
DOUTHAT: There's [snorts] still a war going on. What's the biggest obstacle to peace?
randy r potts retweeted
Pro-Ukraine candidates swept across most of the country. Trump's ending message on the campaign trail was pinning Americans economic woes on Kyiv. Yet voters responded by voting in an overwhelmingly Pro-Ukraine 120th congress.
Track Ukraine's 2026 projections for the incoming United States Congress:
SENATE RACES: 25 of 35 seats are on track to go to Green-rated candidates.
🟢25 Green
🔴7 Red: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Florida
🟡2 with no stated position: Montana, Mississippi
🟣1 who has taken some pro-Ukraine positions: Iowa
INCOMING HOUSE: 219 seats are on track to go to Green-rated candidates, past the 218 needed for a majority.
🟢219 Green
🔵1 Track Ukraine Pledge signee: Richard Ojeda (@Ojeda4America)
🟩2 Green, but all their pro-Ukraine statements were oddly removed from local North Carolina news outlet WSOC-TV 9 during the general election
🟡105 Yellow: 50 with no stated position, 14 who have made pro-Ukraine points, 40 who were rated Green until the Ukraine Support Act vote, 1 who has taken some pro-Ukraine positions
🔴106 Red
⚫2 runoffs, TBD
INCOMING SENATE: 70 of 100 senators are rated Green.
🟢70 Green
🟡6 Yellow
🟣1 who has taken some pro-Ukraine positions
🔴16 Red
⚪5 with no Ukraine voting record yet
⚫2 appointments TBD
Maps, ratings and sources by @TrackUkraine
ALT Map titled "2026 SENATE RACES: Track Ukraine ratings of the projected winner in each of the 35 races," marked "@TrackUkraine" and "Projections as of Nov. 5, 2026." Green (25): OR, ID, SD, NE, CO, KS, NM, TX, AK, MN, IL, MI, OH, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, AR, ME, NH, MA, RI, NJ, DE. Red (7): WY, OK, KY, TN, AL, LA, FL. Yellow, no position (2): MT, MS. Purple, yellow with pro-Ukraine bullet points (1): IA. States with no Senate race are gray. A bar at the bottom reads 25, 2, 7, 1.
ALT Map titled "THE INCOMING HOUSE: Track Ukraine ratings of the projected winner in all 435 districts," marked "@TrackUkraine" and "Projections as of Nov. 5, 2026." Legend: Tossup 0, Pledge Signee 1 (blue), Green Rated 219, Yellow Rated (No Position) 50, Red Rated 106, Yellow (With Pro-Bulletpoints) 14 (purple), Yellow (Green Until Support Act) 40 (orange), Runoff, TBD 2 (black), Yellow (Other) 1 (brown), Green but Pro-Statements Taken Down 2 (light green). Green fills most coastal and urban districts; red and yellow fill much of the rural interior. A bar at the bottom reads 219, 50, 106, 14, 40, with thin slivers for the smallest groups.
ALT Map titled "THE INCOMING SENATE: Track Ukraine ratings of all 100 senators. State color = one senator, dot = the other," marked "@TrackUkraine" and "Projections as of Nov. 5, 2026." Legend: Tossup 0, Green Rated 70, Yellow Rated 6, Red Rated 16, Yellow Rated (With Pro-Bulletpoints) 1 (purple), Appointment TBD 2 (black), No Ukraine Voting Record (No Grade) 5 (white). Green covers most of the map. Fully red: UT, WI, MO, AR, KY, TN, TX, FL. Yellow: ID, NC, SC, LA. Montana and Ohio have white fills. Black dots in MN and TN mark seats awaiting appointment. A bar at the bottom reads 70, 6, 16, 1, 2, 5.
randy r potts retweeted
Are you fucking kidding us?
The US Secretary of Defense posts “Patriots in control,” a notorious QAnon slogan. THREE MINUTES later, Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev responds with “WWG1WGA,” another QAnon cult mantra.
What the actual fuck is this? A coordinated trolling operation? A joint US-Russian QAnon convention? Or have the lunatics finally taken over both asylums?
These people are running two nuclear powers, for fuck's sake.
randy r potts retweeted
Not a threat. Just a reminder that it would be a shame if something happened to them.
The White House warned more than 3,000 conservative groups that it is monitoring their public statements following Republicans’ crushing midterm defeat.
The warning comes as prominent Republicans blame Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war for losing control of Congress.
The administration says the memo is not a threat but an effort to keep its increasingly divided conservative coalition united.
Source: WSJ
randy r potts retweeted
This is why Republicans lost every statewide office and the State House in Georgia. I’m trying to lower your bills and you guys are asking me where I’m going to pee.
randy r potts retweeted
Worth noting MSNOW has never asked a single politician what their plan was to protect Muslims or to promote “Muslim safety”. I studied the past three years from ten major media outlets and found Jewish safety was mentioned 4,200% more than Muslim/Arab safety, at 254-to-6
MSNOW: What is your message now to Jewish voters nationally and what you will do to protect them?
Abdul El-Sayed: I’m committed to Jewish safety, and we are united against discrimination. The U.S. spends billions to carry out genocide and apartheid against Palestinians. The genocide in Gaza with our complicity is continuing right now. Nobody wants to talk about that.
randy r potts retweeted
Easy to point out what candidates did and did not do well in hindsight…
But if Colom pulls out a victory in Mississippi, walking the line of a Trump rally to engage w/Republican voters like this will look like a pretty damn smart move.
I walked the Trump rally line to listen, not make assumptions. I talked with voters, asked questions and heard what matters to them.
When I'm elected, I'll represent all 82 counties and every Mississippian, no matter who they voted for. That's what being your senator means. #MississippiMatters