thor⚡️

here's how crypto has performed after previous hacks in the context of 4y cycles: - Early bull/recovery: Bitfinex hack, August 2016. Around 120,000 BTC stolen. BTC sold off sharply, but was +15% after 3 months and +344% after a year versus its pre-hack close. The hack interrupted the recovery rather than ending it. - Early bear: Mt. Gox collapse, February 2014. BTC briefly recovered, reaching +8% after 3 months, but was −56% after a year. A relief rally wasn’t confirmation of a cycle bottom. - Early bear: Coincheck hack, January 2018. Around $534m of NEM stolen shortly after BTC’s cycle peak. BTC was −17% after 3 months and −68% after a year. - Mid-bear: Terra/Celsius, May–June 2022. These were credit/solvency collapses, not ordinary hacks. Terra was followed by a further 32% BTC decline over 3 months; Celsius’s withdrawal freeze was followed by a 32% decline over 1 month. Interconnected leverage amplified the damage. - Late bear: Bitstamp hack, January 2015. Around 19,000 BTC stolen. BTC was −14% after 1 month, roughly flat after 3 months and +64% after a year. The incident occurred near the eventual bear-market bottom. - Late bear: FTX collapse, November 2022. From early in the exchange run, BTC was −20% after 1 month, +10% after 3 months and +65% after a year. A catastrophic failure can coincide with the final capitulation rather than start a new prolonged bear market. - Bottom line: major hacks haven’t automatically ended bull markets, while failures during bears have sometimes triggered further forced selling. Whether losses are contained or spread through leveraged counterparties matters more than the four-year-cycle label. BTC recovering also doesn’t mean the affected customers or tokens recover.