thor⚡️ retweeted
i don’t think anyone can confidently say that ai stonks are currently expensive, cheap, or fairly priced. that requires a crystal ball in future ai breakthroughs, the supply chain, credit markets, politics, and macro. and such a person simply does not exist.
however, charts, investor psychology, and positioning suggest that the ai trade was almost certainly a big bubble. and when bubbles burst, they will always overshoot.
so, what would give me the confidence to buy ai stonks in size is not “fundamentals”, that’s just too hard. it’s when charts look like they are finally going thru a lengthy bottoming process, investor psyche is utterly and thoroughly damaged, and ai is dismissed as a worthless fad on cnbc.
still the most important technology of the decade but patience will be rewarded.
thor⚡️ retweeted
here's how crypto has performed after previous hacks in the context of 4y cycles:
- Early bull/recovery: Bitfinex hack, August 2016. Around 120,000 BTC stolen. BTC sold off sharply, but was +15% after 3 months and +344% after a year versus its pre-hack close. The hack interrupted the recovery rather than ending it.
- Early bear: Mt. Gox collapse, February 2014. BTC briefly recovered, reaching +8% after 3 months, but was −56% after a year. A relief rally wasn’t confirmation of a cycle bottom.
- Early bear: Coincheck hack, January 2018. Around $534m of NEM stolen shortly after BTC’s cycle peak. BTC was −17% after 3 months and −68% after a year.
- Mid-bear: Terra/Celsius, May–June 2022. These were credit/solvency collapses, not ordinary hacks. Terra was followed by a further 32% BTC decline over 3 months; Celsius’s withdrawal freeze was followed by a 32% decline over 1 month. Interconnected leverage amplified the damage.
- Late bear: Bitstamp hack, January 2015. Around 19,000 BTC stolen. BTC was −14% after 1 month, roughly flat after 3 months and +64% after a year. The incident occurred near the eventual bear-market bottom.
- Late bear: FTX collapse, November 2022. From early in the exchange run, BTC was −20% after 1 month, +10% after 3 months and +65% after a year. A catastrophic failure can coincide with the final capitulation rather than start a new prolonged bear market.
- Bottom line: major hacks haven’t automatically ended bull markets, while failures during bears have sometimes triggered further forced selling. Whether losses are contained or spread through leveraged counterparties matters more than the four-year-cycle label. BTC recovering also doesn’t mean the affected customers or tokens recover.
thor⚡️ retweeted
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
thor⚡️ retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
thor⚡️ retweeted
There is a pattern in every single $100M runner on Robinhood.
There is initial traction on the coin that pulls in a lot of capital from everywhere. Once that euphoria slows down it shakes all the short term buyers out.
The flush from -60% to -95% migrates the supply to holders that won't sell and a "team" to pick up supply for another run.
When new demand comes in, it hits a thin sell side with maybe a catalyst to accelerate. This is when it gets parabolic.
Once you understand that this pattern repeats over and over again you can search for these spots.
Robinhood is a holders chain. Not a flippers chain.
thor⚡️ retweeted
GPT-6 Astra is here.
We hope it will begin to enable a new generation of entrepreneurship, scientific discovery, and building.
We believe it is the best model in the world for computer use, professional work, science, coding, cybersecurity, and more.
It took us some extra time to ensure that we could meet the safety and alignment standards required for this capability level, but we think you’ll find it worth the wait.
It scores 98% on FrontierMath Tier 4, 99.9% on ARC-AGI 3, and 100% on ExploitBench.
thor⚡️ retweeted
If you haven’t already, give the below thread I wrote about estimating “fair value” of $PONS using xRev comp to PUMP (80% buyback vs 50%)
> $145k/d (PONS 30d avg) → $0.24-0.30
> $200k/d → $0.34-0.41 (we are here)
> $360k/d (PONS 7d avg) → $0.60-0.74
> $843k/d (08/30 only) → $1.41-1.74
so at $0.40 = market is pricing in ~$200k/day forever. the 7d avg is already ~$360k. if that holds, fair value is $0.60-0.74
price targets scale w revenue numbers, but which number we use will impact fair value
the TLDR is if we see these past few days of 800k+ revenue persist, it will drag up the 7d / 30d avg revenues and across these timeframes the fair value will rerate as well
alright ran the same ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 math again now that price and revenue have both repriced considerably higher since my last post (see below)
when last shared, PONS xRev was 0.835x and I was looking for a fair value of $0.2 - $0.3 if revenue/day landed ~100-150k. We have since breached both rev/day numbers and fv levels as price hit highs of $0.40
so whats the new fair value? the answer again depends on where revenue lands
running the similar xRev math here with updated numbers once more
buyback yield = payout ÷ xRev
PONS trades at 1.6x PUMP's multiple for a holder to earn the same. 1.6x PUMP's median = 3.26-4.01x
what that means for price at different run-rates:
> $145k/d (PONS 30d avg) → $0.24-0.30
> $200k/d → $0.34-0.41 (we are here)
> $360k/d (PONS 7d avg) → $0.60-0.74
> $843k/d (yesterday only) → $1.41-1.74
so $0.40 = market pricing in ~$200k/day forever. the 7d avg is already ~$360k. if that holds, fair value is $0.60-0.74
obv the assumption doing the work is still the revenue number and not the multiple. $843k was one day and the current 30d avg is $145k
revenue can fall 46% from the 7d avg and $0.40 is still the top of the band. or from a different lens - at $0.40 and 7d run-rate PONS pays a ~37% buyback yield vs PUMP's 15.8%
thor⚡️ retweeted
If ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 would've launched last cycle it would've been launched by the VC cabal at $1 billion plus market cap.
Instead it launched sub $10k, grew organically & now sits above $550 MILLION in market cap.
This is how crypto used to be.
If you had conviction early and held you could with a single play make a fortune.
This rewards the long term believers and punishes the short term flippers.
A few more of these and retail will come flooding back into crypto.
Crypto is healing.
