Tom Dusevic (@tomdusevic) header
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Columnist @australian; Author 'Whole Wild World' (NewSouth)

Joined February 2015
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
Jason Furman has launched Econvitals, a new macroeconomics system. It uses about 500,000 lines of code that he vibe coded using AI models to create a data layer that pulls about 110 sources, including a Fedspeak tracker and a fiscal simulator. (1/4)
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
One for old timers - from Riverbank Frank. The Complete Koori Footballer youtu.be/NABb6LMZ0yE?si=0Yfa… via @YouTube
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
How GST revenue is shared between the states remains contentious. There may be no perfect solution, but e61 CEO Michael Brennan, former Treasury Deputy Secretary and Productivity Commission Chair argues there are practical reforms that could make a meaningful difference. e61.in/michael-brennan-on-wh…
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And here's a link to the note e61.in/nsw-state-budget-prev…
How much has the Budget hit property values? Hard to say - but even before the Budget house prices in Australia’s two biggest market were in their sharpest decline in 5yrs, notes e61
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
Pity the NSW Budget's bottom line. It's the only state budget still suffering from fiscal long COVID, with 8 years of successive operating deficits. Now Treasurer Daniel Mookhey faces two fresh challenges on the long road back to surplus. The first is renewed cost of living pressures in an election year as petrol prices and interest rates take their toll. The second is revenue write-downs, due to the slowing property market. As Australia’s big property state, NSW will be where economists, journalists and politicians judge the likely fiscal impact of rising interest rates and tax changes announced in the federal Budget. It’s a salient lesson in the downside of long, gradual fiscal recoveries. The longer the path of recovery, the greater the chance something unforeseen will disrupt it before full health is restored. But there is good news. Mookhey has an emerging track record on spending restraint. Despite still being in operating deficit, NSW is arguably better positioned than any state other than WA. The question is whether the property weakness is a head cold, or something more serious. e61.in/nsw-state-budget-prev…
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
Reporting on the Albanese Government's fifth Budget has focused on capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts. But beneath the headlines, five important stories have largely flown under the radar. In our last budget61 piece on the federal Budget, @SPelinAkyol, Elyse Dwyer (@dwyerel), @NickJGarvin , Matt Nolan (@ZjubNZ) and @lachlanvass unpack three stories buried within the themes of tax, housing and the NDIS – and two stories notable for their absence: JobSeeker and illicit tobacco. e61.in/five-things-we-think-…
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
Two state budgets this week showed WA in surplus and Victoria deep in deficit. In this week's plus61, Jack Buckley and Aaron Wong argue this widening divide is emblematic of a federation increasingly stuck between two principles, neither fully equalising across states, nor letting them go their own way. e61.in/a-federation-in-no-ma…
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Tom Dusevic retweeted
Intergenerational equity is a major theme ahead of this year's federal Budget. But the simple story of young vs old hides something more complicated. In the latest edition of budget61, jack Buckley (@JackBuckleyEcon), Matthew Maltman (@1finaleffort), and Matt Nolan (@ZjubNZ) show why many of the issues framed as intergenerational problems are really about two other things: a system that is front-loading costs onto young people's lowest-earning years, and a lightly taxed windfall from rising asset prices that will flow unevenly to younger generations through inheritance. Understanding what the problem actually is matters for what we do about it. Simply taking from one generation and giving to another risks making some of these inequities worse. e61.in/rethinking-intergener…
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Superb work from Maltman. Take the time and don't miss the footnotes
I’ve got an essay out in Inflection Points this morning arguing we can improve our supply-side conversation. I also argue we should see zoning reform in the same vein of 1990s microeconomic reform: lowering prices, boosting productivity, and expanding markets.
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Erin Clarke shows how Gen Z young men are more likely to hold traditional gender beliefs than older men—and far more so than their female peers. e61.in/new-data-shows-gen-z-…
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OUR LEADERS ARE PLEASERS, NOT DOERS How should our politicians be judged? Both sides understandably compare themselves to ‘the other lot’, and proclaim themselves better. And commentators sometimes say that today’s policy or promise is better than it used to be. Yet those are relative yardsticks. They’re like the old joke – two people are running from a grizzly bear, and one yells “we can’t outrun it!” The reply is “I don’t have to outrun it: I just have to outrun you!” And it’s true that relative yardsticks are pretty vital, if for no other reason than they’re important in deciding how you should vote. Yet I think it makes more sense to use an absolute yardstick – how will history judge this campaign? Australia relies on China for prosperity and the US for security, but the ability of China’s economy to keep generating Australian prosperity is faltering, while the willingness of the US to provide us security is subject to their toxic and volatile politics. So today’s changed backdrop says history will look at this election with deeply enquiring eyes. History’s grizzly won’t care if one side has marginally better policies than the other, or even if a few of the policies of both sides are better than they used to be. History will rightly see that as rounding errors. World events are rapping on our door, but the response of both sides has been to plug their ears and to try to plug ours. They are pleasers, not doers. I’ve long loved a speech given in April 2008 by Don Russell – former chief of staff to Paul Keating and Ambassador to Washington. He said “political figures tend to fall into two groups. There are those who subscribe to the notion that if you are nice to the electorate, the electorate will be nice to you. The other group tends to believe that the electorate is much more impatient and believes that, unless you are being useful, the electorate will inevitably tire of you and replace you. Loosely speaking, these two groups can be described as the ‘pleasers’ and the ‘doers’ …. Pleasers will try not to upset people; will seek approval from as many groups as possible; and will try and shield the electorate and themselves from bad news. Doers will identify problems and be seen to deal with them. Doers tend to maintain a dialogue with the electorate and tend to want to educate people. They tend to seek acknowledgement for tasks accomplished. For a doer, transparency can be an asset; the identification of problems is the basis for the next set of recognised achievements. For a pleaser, transparency can be scary; once a problem is identified it might need to be dealt with, which could have unpredictable and possibly painful consequences. Doers also tend to have more fun. The life of a minister might be shockingly hard and thankless but at least the doer has something to show for it when it is all over. The doer also experiences the exhilarating thrill of doing something worthwhile and important. The pleaser on the other hand lives the life of a thousand miseries. And at the end, he or she will find that a legacy which consists of a mishmash of half-baked policy initiatives provides little comfort …. A government’s narrative is important: the big picture story that senior ministers and Prime Ministers tell about the state of the nation and the strategy of the government. A government’s narrative differentiates it from its opponents, energises its supporters and builds a case for national action. At times of crisis and national difficulty, it is essential that the government of the day articulate a clear and coherent story about the nature of the challenges, and the strategy they have in hand to deal with them …. Doers find a clearly articulated narrative helpful; pleasers find them troublesome. A narrative helps build the case for change and it provides the benchmark against which achievements can be measured and acknowledged. A narrative leverages up the influence of senior ministers; it empowers departments like the Treasury and gives guidance to all. It reassures the electorate that the government is on the job and most importantly the electorate appreciates having a benchmark against which they can judge performance.” Ahhh. Those were the days ... These days, however, our nation’s government and the alternative government are both pleasers, pretending that today’s challenges can be met with business as usual. I fear history will judge that as mediocre.
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Australia's birth rate is falling but political parties have no policy solution. Baby bonus treasurer Peter Costello says it will crash productivity. theaustralian.com.au/nation/…
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It might be the Prime Minister’s last stand, but taxpayers be warned: the big spending era will roll on: bit.ly/3QGgyNc
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Good work here from the AFR's @michael_read_ on the dark arts of the budget and how there's more money flowing out of Canberra than it cares to admit ... afr.com/policy/economy/insid…
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The extra out of pocket costs won’t break the bank for retirees – but the policy game has changed forever: bit.ly/4gqwG1a
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I'm going to go out on a limb and conclude the leading two suburbs here are the locations of Cro-run aged care homes
Here are the suburbs with the highest % of people born in Croatia by state/territory. Bell Park, VIC takes the top spot, with 6.5% of its residents born in Croatia 🇭🇷
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