Retired university teacher of US (business) history. Welsh & European. Durham resident. Not looking for followers, will block freely incl bots, trolls & anons.

Joined March 2009
The last episode in my 10-part serial about wildlife crime & conservation on the Pembrokeshire bird-islands. It’s been a great pleasure to get this stuff out where somebody might actually read it. Previous episodes at nation.cymru/?s=Howell+Harri….
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SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see. On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior) Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable. The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran. SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon. $SPCX $TSLA Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
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During the January 6th attack on the nation's Capitol, Daniel Rodriguez drove a stun gun into the neck of Officer Mike Fanone. He was knocked unconscious, had a heart attack and suffered a traumatic brain injury. It ended his career. Rodriguez got over 12 years in prison for his assault on police. On day one, Donald Trump gave him a "full, complete and unconditional pardon" and sent him home. This is far and away the most corrupt White House in American history.
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כשאתם מצביעים, תזכרו שעל זה הבחירות. על הכיבוש - שליטה צבאית במליוני אנשים שלא יכולים להצביע היום. תזכרו את זה, והצביעו משותפת @ListJoint
הייתי היום במסיק של קול רבני ליד חווארה. איך שהגענו, חיילים שהיו באזור עצרו לידנו ואמרו לנו, בחיוך ובשמחה - ״היום אין מסיק״. השבנו שבלי צו, אנחנו מוסקים. וכך העברנו, כמה עשרות פעילים, עשרים דקות של מסיק בהול, עד שהגיע קצין עם צו שטח צבאי סגור. ככה נראה כח שרירותי ולא מבוקר.
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I've edited and written my fair share of harrowing stories but I really felt sick to my stomach the entire time I was editing this
Israeli forces have detained dozens of Syrians from the country’s south, some of them teenage boys taken from farms and family homes. Their families still don’t know where they are being held or why, reports @subhash_anagha for @newlinesmag. newlinesmag.com/reportage/th…
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Children of Gaza.
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Israeli settler terrorist Pinhas Shem Tov Ran erected a roadblock in the Nablus-area village of Aqraba last month and began checking Palestinians’ IDs without authorization. When a Palestinian man refused to comply, Ran shot at him and his 18-year-old daughter. Israeli police and the Shin Bet detained Ran at his home on October 11. Last Friday, he was charged with causing grievous bodily harm with intent, an offense carrying a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, and obstruction of justice, which carries up to three years. Today, he was released to house arrest. This is state-backed terrorism.
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Given that this was Trafalgar Week, I finally showed Master and Commander to my preteen kids - still sugared up from watching the MCU's Infinity Saga these past months. I almost wept as they sat there mesmerised, watching Captain Jack Aubrey, his good friend Dr Stephen Maturin, and the gallant HMS Surprise take on the Frenchies. They loved it so much they begged to watch the sequel. Alas, not. We were promised a whole ocean of sequels drawn from Patrick O’Brian's twenty-book treasury, yet we were left with only this one magnificent voyage. The disappointment cuts deep in its sadness. The picture came out just after everyone had stuffed themselves on Pirates of the Caribbean's rum-soaked capers. And although it was critically adored and pulled in respectable money worldwide, it didn't quite deliver the obscene domestic blockbuster numbers the studios now insist on before they'll green-light another expensive wooden ship full of extras getting wet and cold for months on end. So the Surprise sits at anchor in our heads, her powder magazines untouched, while we quietly grieve the French frigates we never chased, the dinners in the great cabin we never attended. We wonder how the Hollywood bean-counters - who never once smelled salt spray or heard a broadside - managed to convince themselves this particular adventure wasn't worth continuing. Alas, Master and Commander is one of those quiet sorrows that all film buffs will continue to carry like an old wound from a duel they never quite fought.
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Oh boy, are the Right excited by this graph recently published by The Economist! And of course none of them has bothered to read the article itself (TBF, it is behind a paywall!). So as always, let's add a little context and explain why these kinds of comparisons are so problematic 🧵1/25
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In-joke for British academics. The answer is almost certainly Yes.
Does this mean the Student List gets mitigating circumstances if their essays are in late?
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Elon Musk found us here. We’re indigenous to this land.
If people dislike Elon Musk so much, why do they still use the platform he owns?
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If they were occupying Israeli soldiers there would be wall-to-wall coverage. But these are Palestinian men, women, and children, so…
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Journalists, podcasters, editors, etc.: Ahmad is available for interviews. Hear what’s happening in Hebron directly from one of its residents whose home was just demolished. Lmk if interested.
In Hebron, 22-year-old university student Ahmad Imraish describes how Israeli forces forced his family out of their home at gunpoint and demolished it without warning.
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I was an admirer of British political culture in my teenage years. Seems a different universe. This is Britain now
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The ugly truth about France and some of the other European countries currently in turmoil - and which none of the politicians want to admit because it'd be political suicide - is that you can't solve the problem by going after immigrants (as the right asserts) or the rich (as the left asserts), but you could solve it by going after the old. One extraordinary statistic for you: people over 60 in France, a quarter of the population, own 60% of France's wealth, non-financial and financial (ofce.fr/pdf/revue/2025/3-192…). And here is another crazy statistic: that same quarter of the population, those above 60, receive nearly two-thirds of all social spending by the French government (previssima.fr/actualite/prot…) - which is famously among the highest in the world (France's government spending is an insane 57.3% of GDP). Last statistic: they make up about 40% of voters because they're a third of registered voters (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/266…), and they turn out far more than anyone else (franceinfo.fr/elections/sond…). Put our 3 statistics together and there's almost a bit of an apartheid situation here: the old own most of the country's wealth, collect most of the social spending and have the political power to keep it that way. Which makes them a de-facto rentier class, living off assets and transfers paid for by younger generations. And, of course, at the risk of stating a truism, the future is built by the young. Yet France keeps effectively taking money away from them to give it to those whose working lives are already behind them - and need the money far less since they already own the country's wealth. What about inheritance, I hear you ask? That's the funniest/saddest aspect: given that life expectancy has kept rising, the French now inherit a home at 54 on average. The most common case is someone in their 80s leaving it to heirs in their 50s, in effect the very old transferring wealth to the about-to-be old (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fic…). You can add this to our earlier apartheid statement: on top of all the rest, even when the old finally let go of their wealth, it stays within their own "camp". That's my personal situation, incidentally: I'm 42, my father is 71 and he is starting to look at ways to pass things on to me and my siblings, when our professional lives are already well settled, so it'll arrive when it changes things the least, which is pretty much the French system in a nutshell. Now, I get that there'd be some unfairness in going after them: they paid into the system their entire working lives, playing by the rules of a social contract that told them if they paid up they'd collect at the end. Changing the rules now means breaking that promise, which is admittedly unfair. But there's no magic wealth tree in any society: you can only take it where it is. That's the way most major societal transformations end up happening. They're often triggered by a catastrophic event (the so-called "four horsemen": mass-mobilisation war, revolution, state collapse, plague) BUT what really drives change is a transfer: wealth gets pried from the privileged class who've been sitting on it and handed to those who'll build what comes next. So, in theory and in an ideal world, you can do without the catastrophic event and directly proceed with the transfer... The fact that in France, and elsewhere in Europe, it's the youth protesting is probably no coincidence - even though they don't frame it as a generational fight. And even though, cruel irony, the left politicians many of them march behind promise to bring the retirement age back to 60 (lcp.fr/actualites/legislativ…), which would make the situation even worse. Let's say they understand intuitively that the system is stacked against them, even if they haven't yet figured out how. And politicians are obviously doing what politicians do, meaning pandering to the people who actually vote, while pointing the young towards easier - and politically convenient - scapegoats. To be clear I'm not saying it's the only problem in France, VERY far from it. I'm also not saying that all old people in France live a lavish lifestyle at the expense of younger generations: there are also plenty of very poor retirees who, if anything, would deserve more. What I am saying is that it's probably the biggest elephant in the room: everyone can see it, nobody dares mention it - no politician, from any side, wants to run on cutting grandma's pension - and it makes every other problem harder to fix.
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Republicans let an unelected South African ketamine junkie fire 270K American workers, steal our data, starve the world's poorest children, shut down investigations into his companies, and set himself up with billions in government contracts. And DOGE cost more than it saved.
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As Israel prepares to go to the polls on Tuesday, the issue that has received shockingly little attention is Israel's having reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed nearly 75,000 people. What genocide? trib.al/8D4jsmv
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Important evidence of rape and other sexual violence by Israelis against Palestinian civilians collected by Professor @maynard_nick and his colleagues, detailed, evidence-heavy peer reviewed paper published @bmj_latest
Please read and share this article from *The BMJ* on *"Sexual violence against Palestinians". It’s difficult reading, but must be shared. Five doctors and legal scholars examine the evidence and call for independent investigations and accountability. bmj.com/content/395/bmj-2026…
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The reason why Netanyahu says Israel must prepare for banking sanctions is because he knows that he would do next, further ethnic cleansing of Palestinians etc, will trigger them.
1/ Benjamin Netanyahu got the last set of polls last night. They argue Likud and his block are eroding fast. Then, came his remarks on Israel's economy. These are among the most extraordinary he has made in a long political career. Whatever their intent, they carry real weight for the Israeli economy – before Tuesday's election, and regardless of who forms the next government. In an interview with journalist Roy Katz, aired Friday, the prime minister said American military aid to Israel is coming to an end. "It's over. It's only a question of time," he said. Israelis should get used to no longer receiving tens of billions of dollars in U.S. defense assistance, he added, "because America has changed." That alone is remarkable. There is a growing recognition in Israel that U.S. military aid in its current form will have to change, and might end, as bipartisan support for Israel erodes in Washington. Netanyahu himself has spoken before about wanting to wean Israel off the aid. But there is a distance between that recognition and a sitting prime minister effectively announcing the end of one of the pillars of the U.S.–Israel strategic relationship. The current Memorandum of Understanding – $38 billion over ten years – runs through September 2028. It is embedded in a web of interests that includes the American defense industry, and Israel's diplomats in Washington work hard to sustain it. Israel's friends in Congress, operating in an increasingly difficult political environment, are still fighting to preserve the special relationship. When the prime minister himself says "it's over," that is a hard message for Israel's defense establishment, and for those in Washington still trying to help. And that was only the opening. "There could be sanctions, including banking sanctions," Netanyahu said. Israel, he explained, must prepare an economy capable of bypassing them. This is a different order of magnitude entirely. Some background is needed. In the world of international sanctions, comprehensive banking sanctions against a country are among the most powerful tools available to major powers. They are not import restrictions, consumer boycotts, or even arms embargoes. Broad financial sanctions go after an economy's circulatory system. Israel's banks depend on the global financial system: correspondent banks, clearing, credit lines, the ability to move money across borders. Without access to banks abroad, the Israeli economy stops functioning. And such sanctions don't hit only the banks. They hit everyone who banks with them – companies, exporters, importers, investors, employers. When foreign banks become nervous about a country's financial institutions, they tend to cut ties well beyond what the law strictly requires. In other words, a sweeping financial sanctions regime would push Israel toward the category of Iran or Russia. It would be worse. Iran and Russia sit on vast oil and gas reserves. Even under sanctions, they keep selling – mainly in Asia and parts of the Global South. Israel's economy is not built on commodities. Its strength comes from integration into the global economy: human capital, technology, research, advanced services. According to the Israel Innovation Authority, Israeli high-tech exported roughly $85 billion in goods and services in 2025 – 58 percent of all Israeli exports – and accounted for about half of the economy's growth. It is the engine of the economy, and it depends on foreign markets, foreign capital, and the free movement of money. Netanyahu did not say who might impose banking sanctions. A prime minister raising this possibility, in the same breath as forecasting the end of U.S. aid, should prompt immediate questions. Is he referring to European sanctions? American ones? above all: how did Israel get to the point where this is being discussed at all? There was more - and much worse.
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Indicted War criminal Netanyahu has promised an IDF operation "of a scale not seen since the Six-Day War." Recall, during & after the 1967 War, Israel violently expelled 300,000 Palestinians and 130,000 Syrians from their homes, leveling 131 Syrian villages and destroying 30 Palestinian villages, hamlets, herding communities, and refugee camps in whole or part. Source: palestinenexus.com/articles/…
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'Today, after nearly five years of war, and 22 months of the second Trump administration, the mental map guiding Russian strategy has changed. First, Russia now sees Europe, instead of the United States, as its principal geopolitical adversary, a shift that has driven Russia’s defense establishment to call for an approach known as “castling” to deal with the main threats. Related to this, Moscow now attributes new strategic agency to Europe itself because of the dramatic military modernization taking place in many European countries and the growing interest among some European leaders in developing or extending their own nuclear deterrent. A third shift concerns Russia’s theory of deterrence: Moscow’s traditional understanding of nuclear coercion is giving way to new thinking about nonnuclear strategic deterrence using advanced conventional weapons systems aimed at Europe. ... One of the most notable trends in Russian strategic thought over the past year has been the emergence of the idea of “castling.” A term borrowed from chess, castling in geopolitics describes the repositioning of forces and resources to optimize a state’s strategic posture. Moscow’s defense experts have used the concept to describe a strategy for dealing with a new reality: for the first time since World War II, they have argued, Europe, rather than the United States, has become Russia’s principal geopolitical adversary. According to this view, European countries are now the principal source of Ukraine’s military capacity, political resolve, and strategic resilience; it is Europe and not the United States that has made Ukraine its proxy and is encouraging Kyiv to pursue Moscow’s strategic defeat. As a consequence, Moscow must direct coercive pressure at Europe—its elites, its decision-making centers, and its critical infrastructure. By doing so, Russia can instill into Europe’s calculus what theorists in Moscow call a “deterring fear”: a European reluctance to antagonize Russia through further support to Ukraine. Such action, they argue, can also rebuild Russian credible deterrence for long-term competition with the West, which is now centered on Europe. .... Drawing on this experience, Russian military theoreticians center NNSD on using massive, deep, precision strikes against the adversary’s critical military, political, and economic infrastructure. The strategy, they suggest, should be aimed not only at Ukraine but also at its European supporters. Although the exact contours of NNSD are still emerging, the concept appears to be more escalatory than the hybrid warfare and deniable asymmetric campaigns that Russia is currently pursuing in Europe.'
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