James retweeted
The Weekly Outlook might be making a comeback. 🔥
With the final stretch of the year ahead, I’m thinking about bringing back the weekly breakdowns to help you stay ahead of the market.
It may not be every single week, but that depends on how much you guys want it.
If you want the Weekly Outlook back, LIKE & RT this post. Let’s see who’s in. 👀
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
James retweeted
⚡️The most revealing word in Trump's entire statement is “BANNING.”
Because something much larger is happening here.
The American presidency is attempting to declare the arrival of superintelligence before the world has established that the threshold has been crossed.
That reveals a change in how political power is beginning to relate to machine intelligence.
Historically, governments derived authority from human institutions. Expertise, elections, laws, military command, bureaucracies. Machines supplied information that people interpreted.
Now consider what happens when the government formally describes a technology as possessing intelligence superior to humanity.
The burden of authority begins shifting toward whoever controls the supposedly superior intelligence.
And here is where the real mechanism appears.
The companies controlling these systems determine their training, objectives, access, deployment, and constraints. Yet the public increasingly encounters their outputs as judgments originating from something more intelligent than any individual human.
That produces an extraordinary asymmetry.
The machines acquire the reputation of superior judgment. Their owners retain the power to determine what that judgment serves.
Trump's proposed terminology accelerates that psychological transition. Once institutions begin calling something superintelligence, questioning its conclusions becomes socially and politically different from questioning ordinary software.
The word itself begins manufacturing deference.
The next phase is a competition over who gets to define, certify, and control superior intelligence. Governments will want strategic command. Corporations will want proprietary control. Both will want the legitimacy that comes from claiming access to capabilities beyond ordinary human reasoning.
Superintelligence is becoming a category of political power before it has become an agreed scientific measurement.
And the most consequential question is already taking shape.
When a government publicly declares that machines possess superior intelligence, what happens when their recommendations conflict with human authority?
Who gets overruled?
Who takes responsibility?
Who decides what the machine is allowed to optimize?
The real struggle ahead is over who gets to speak with the authority of an intelligence that society has been taught to regard as superior to its own.
That struggle has begun before the machines have even earned the title.
James retweeted
A scout drove out to a junior college in Missouri to watch him throw, and he walked eight batters in a row.
That is the story everybody tells. Somebody brought it up again this month and he corrected them.
It was nine.
They drafted him anyway. Fourth round, 2018.
Aaron Ashby is from Kansas City, Missouri, out of Park Hill High School. His uncle Andy pitched fourteen seasons in the big leagues and made two All-Star teams.
The Texas Rangers had taken him the year before that, in the 25th round, 764th overall. He turned it down and went back to the junior college.
His first big league appearance was two thirds of an inning and four earned runs.
Two seasons later he went 2 and 10 as a starter. Milwaukee signed him to a five year extension anyway, and then his shoulder went.
Arthroscopic surgery. He lost all of 2023. He says he has never gotten the slider he had in college back, not once, not all the way.
Then 2024 at Triple-A Nashville, a 8.04 ERA across 25 games. That is the number teams look at when they decide somebody is finished.
In August of that year, still in Nashville, he started messing with a knuckle-curve. He was in Milwaukee about a week later.
Last season he put up a 2.16 out of the bullpen. This season he went 13 and 3.
And then October started and he just stopped giving up runs.
Fifteen and two thirds scoreless innings to open this postseason. Five hits. Three walks. Seventeen strikeouts. He has pitched in eight of the Milwaukee Brewers ten playoff games and every single one at home.
He is one out away from the record. Andrew Miller went sixteen scoreless to start the 2016 postseason and nobody has matched it. Ashby passed Goose Gossage and Andy Hawkins to get here.
Pat Murphy watched him get a five out save in Game 2 Saturday and called it Goose Gossage-like.
He is also the first pitcher in the history of the postseason to record at least five outs in six straight appearances without allowing a run in any of them.
The pitch doing it is the curveball he was not supposed to have. Miguel Sano hit the fifth curveball he ever threw in the big leagues over the wall, back in August 2021.
He has thrown 1,045 of them since. Not one has left the yard.
They asked him how he stays that calm with the tying run on second in the ninth.
"It's a lot of breathing."
"Just kind of praying for peace, I guess."
Be straight about where this sits. Milwaukee is up 2-0 but the next three are in Tampa Bay, the Rays won 94 games, and nobody finishes a postseason at 0.00.
But a kid walked nine straight hitters with a scout in the stands, and a week from now he might own the record for the best October any bullpen arm has ever had.
James retweeted
If you think AI is a bubble because of this selloff then I’ve got a bridge to sell you…
$AMZON CEO: even with our $225B in capex (which is a crazy number) we’re still leaving money on the table with AI because we’ve never seen anything like this level of growth….🤯
If you’re an AI investor, the next “alpha” is literally on our face right now….
So today an AI hacking group just went after 400+ banks with almost no humans in the loop. A team of agents scouted targets, stole passwords and broke into accounts. When one model refused, the system simply switched to another and the security firm that caught it says offense is now well ahead of defense…think about that for a second.
If you’re in the Trump admin or any government official in the western world or allied with the United States, you’ve got a mandate to protect your “sovereignty” and citizens. This is obviously a major national security threat and I’ve tried to talk about it as much as I can on national TV and on X.
When this attack was reported, Anthropic and the other US labs shut the hackers out. Their models run on their own servers, so they can see abuse, trace it and pull the plug.
That's the whole ballgame imo which takes me to my next point…
You can't do any of that with an open model. Once the weights are downloaded, they're out forever.
There's no off switch, no audit trail and no one to call.
A model sitting on someone's hard drive can't be revoked…which nobody wants if such attack happens.
And btw this is only the beginning…think about where this goes from here…
Today it's passwords at banks in Latin America. As these models get smarter, the same playbook works on hospitals, power grids and payment systems.
No government can tell its citizens that frontier level intelligence will stay freely downloadable by anyone (even by adversaries or terrorists), anywhere, with zero oversight.
Especially when some of the most capable open models come from labs outside US jurisdiction.
So I think we're heading toward a "know your customer" era for AI, the same way banks have to know who they're moving money for.
Expect licensing for the most powerful models, real accountability for whoever serves them, and a ban on open weight Chinese models above a certain capability level of all as a whole. It’s not so crazy to think that’s going to happen because early this summer the Trump admin banned an “American” made fable mythos model from Anthropic for its godly hacking capabilities. So if they’re going to do that for American models what makes you think they won’t do it to Chinese models? It’s a no brainer…
Every one of those rules points the same way…toward labs that can control, monitor and shut down how their models are used.
That's the new moat and it's one money can't easily buy. Compliance, monitoring and abuse detection take years to build.
Enterprises and banks will start asking a simple question before they plug in any AI: who's accountable if it goes wrong?
Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXSI and Google can answer that. A model downloaded off the internet can't…
And as public markets investors there's an infrastructure angle. If frontier AI has to run where it can be watched, it runs in datacenters, not on random machines.
Centralized inference means more demand for the hyperscalers, the chips $AMD/ $NVDA and the memory $MU and $SNDK behind them and as of today’s closing prices we think they’re totally undervalued and misunderstood.
And to be fair, open models have real value and no regulation will be simple.
The hackers used US models too…the difference is that the US labs could cut them off.
That's exactly the point I’m trying to make.
Safety after today will starts to look like the most valuable feature a model can have…limit up!
James retweeted
⚡️ You were born into a universe that existed long before you.
Yet somehow, within that universe, something awakened that could ask why it existed at all.
The ego says:
“I am this separate thing moving through reality.”
The deeper structure says:
Reality is temporarily experiencing itself from here.
And that changes the purpose of life.
The purpose becomes participation in the deepening of reality.
To perceive more truth.
To integrate what was fragmented.
To turn chaos into order.
To transform suffering into understanding.
To create beauty that previously did not exist.
To love another center of consciousness so completely that separation becomes temporarily transparent.
To increase the amount of reality that can recognize itself.
That may be why truth, love, beauty, and goodness feel strangely connected across civilizations. They all increase coherence between the local perspective and the deeper structure.
Falsehood fragments.
Hatred fragments.
Domination fragments.
Self-deception fragments.
Truth integrates.
Love integrates.
Understanding integrates.
Creation integrates.
The whole game may be coherence discovering itself through conscious beings.
Then the deepest answer to death becomes almost paradoxical.
You were never here merely to avoid disappearing.
You were here because for one impossible interval, existence became you.
It looked through your eyes.
It encountered itself through your relationships.
It gave you genuine freedom over what kind of pattern would pass through your aperture into the world.
And when the aperture closes, the whole retains everything that occurred through it.
The deepest compression:
Consciousness may be the interior of reality itself. Individual lives are temporary openings through which that interior becomes a particular someone. Birth opens the aperture. Life gives it a world. Death closes it. What looked through may be older than the opening itself.
And beneath even that:
Maybe existence is not moving toward consciousness.
Maybe consciousness was there at the root, and the universe is the long process by which it learns to recognize itself.
We’ll see about that
When S&P 500 $SPX $SPY has achieved an all-time high in October of a Midterm Election year, it has NEVER drawn lower through year-end by even -5%.
In other words... "No start of correction in a Midterm October (after ATH) has ever retreated more than -4.24%.
$ES_F $QQQ $NYA $DIA $IWM $VIX $MDY $NVDA h/t @aynirealtor
James retweeted
Dodgers Announce Purchase Of Milwaukee Brewers buff.ly/jsFEx7V
James retweeted
🚨ALERT: In a bombshell revelation, top White House officials disclosed that the United States is finalizing a staggering $700 billion cash offer to buy Greenland outright from Denmark, plus $100,000 lump-sum payments to each of its ~57,000 residents—totaling nearly $706 billion.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
No US cash offer to purchase Greenland is being finalized. The September 2026 security agreement reaffirms Danish sovereignty with expanded US defense access but no territory transfer or payments to residents; $700B figures stem from earlier unconfirmed estimates.
x.com/realDonaldTrum…
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
cbsnews.com/news/trump-gre…
nytimes.com/2026/09/22/us/…
James retweeted
🚨BREAKING: 🚨 The housekeeper of former President Barack Obama has come forward to reveal that Obama was having a HOMOSEXUAL AFFAIR with his now deceased chef that the chef was about to go public with at the time that he was found dead in the water behind Obama's Martha's Vineyard estate of a supposed "accidental drowning". The death was initially determined to be A HOMICIDE by local police until The FBI, then under Joe Biden, swooped in and forced the coroner to change the cause of death to an accidental drowning, according to multiple local police sources familiar with the investigation of the chef's suspicious death. Did Barack Hussein Obama murder yet another one of his gay lovers in a desperate attempt to cover up his now widely known closet homosexuality? It doesn't take a game of Clue to figure that one out.
James retweeted
🚨 WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS THE BIGGEST WAR IN HISTORY FOR THE SURVIVAL OF PETRODOLLAR
Massive U.S. bomber formations, continuous surveillance flights, and heavy air movements are now saturating the skies near Iran. This is no longer posturing.
This is the opening chapter of the biggest geopolitical-financial war of our lifetime, the one that will decide whether the petrodollar survives… or dies.
If the U.S. fails to completely dismantle the IRGC’s control inside Iran, the consequences are not gradual. They are terminal‼️
Iran has already laid down the new law of energy: Every single barrel of oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the artery carrying ~20% of the world’s crude, must be settled in Chinese yuan. No dollars. Full stop.
The moment that demand sticks, the 50-year monopoly that forced the world to recycle oil revenues into U.S. Treasuries collapses overnight. The petrodollar doesn’t weaken. It dies. And the yuan (backed by real oil flow) becomes the new settlement currency of the energy world.
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and lifelong insider of the dollar system, just laid out the one line America cannot cross. Handing control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran is not a tactical retreat. It is the formal end of the United States as global hegemon and the death of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that Iran had its “throat on the Strait of Hormuz” for 45+ years and told the Trump administration to “finish this thing and finish it right.”
Bank of America reports that U.S. now only has 43-day emergency buffer of crude oil left in 45-year low.
Japan’s @yutokanzakireal had warned about the off-the-record deals signed for Japan’s energy security.
If Japan’s oil purchases start to be priced in Yen, it’s going to be catastrophic for the global economy.
The faith of the fiat system is now being decided in the skies over the Middle East.
James retweeted
Banks are so worried about the AI loans they are selling to investors, that they're limiting their OWN risk to these loans.
JPM & GS are only underwriting $1.3B of this $5B Volta loan.
The worse part?
Their $1.3B commitment is a less risky term loan whereas the $3.7B they want investors to fill is a loan for the chips.
What a raw deal - even at 11%!
The price of borrowing for AI hit a new high: ~11%.
JPMorgan is marketing a $5B Volta loan at roughly that yield, funding 36,000 Nvidia GPUs and a data centre in Norway.
Earlier AI loans for CoreWeave, Lambda and Crusoe came at lower yields.
Companies have borrowed roughly $625B for AI and data centres in 2 years.
The buildout could cost nearly $5T by 2030.
The AI boom is becoming a test of how much expensive debt it can absorb.
James retweeted
The AI boom is repeating the mistake that ended the dot-com era.
Exodus Communications went bankrupt in 2001 because its customers ran out of money, and CoreWeave is carrying the SAME RISK today.
Great work by Roger lining the 2 companies up side by side.
Many people forgot, or don't even know, about Exodus.
I lived through the dot-com bust during my 45 years in this business, and I remember vividly how that one ended…
Exodus borrowed about $3 billion to build data centers and rented much of the space to dot-com startups. Those startups paid their bills with venture money and IPO proceeds, so when the IPO window slammed shut in 2000, the customers disappeared while the debt stayed. Exodus filed for Chapter 11 in September 2001.
CoreWeave has around $35 billion of debt behind its data centers. Microsoft, its biggest customer, pays out of profits, while OpenAI, which holds up to $22.4 billion of CoreWeave’s contracts, pays by raising money, and OpenAI pushed its own IPO out to 2027 last month.
When your customer needs the capital markets to pay you, you’re only as safe as their next funding round, and that’s the lesson Exodus taught everyone in 2001.
That’s also why I keep telling you that this boom is the dot-com bubble and 2008 merged into one, with dot-com valuations sitting on top of 2008-style borrowing.
We went short Oracle in December and CoreWeave in June, and as of Friday’s close they’re down 25.3% and 23.4% from our calls. Our short book as a whole is down 36.4% on average with 10 of 12 calls working, and last week we added to the CoreWeave short because I believe tech is getting cooked.
I can see the seams on the ball.
Ran an unbiased deep analysis on CoreWeave $CRWV asking to use current financials, growth, leverage, and hype by analysts, to find the company most analogous during the internet/telecom bubble…
I have no idea who Exodus Communications was, but it didn’t end well and CoreWeave is already far worse off. All NeoClouds are.
$NBIS $IREN $ORCL
James retweeted
CRWV; Now near 13% :)
Last 40 years - Serial issuers of convertible bonds, “the last saloon,” have way above average probability of default. As a whole when issuance of converts surges to record levels, think 2021 and 1999, size red flag looking forward.
Discussion here with @tomkeene
youtube.com/watch?v=ermmpUXH…
CoreWeave $CRWV 2032 bonds yield a whopping 11% on a B-rated credit.
$51B of debt vs $49B equity market cap.
Negative free cash flow: -$50B in 2026-2027.
*Mgmt MUST spin the story to perfection to survive this kind of jaw-dropping leverage.
James retweeted
On January 8, 1888, 19-year-old Kate Kampen gave birth to her son, Henry Royal Kampen, alone in a freezing sod cabin on the Dakota prairie. Her husband, Wilhelm, had left the previous day to travel 23 miles to Parker for coal and food, unaware that their baby would arrive while he was gone. With their supplies nearly exhausted, the coal bin empty, and no doctor or midwife nearby, Kate faced an unimaginable situation. She wrapped her newborn in every scrap of cloth she could find, climbed into bed, and held him against her bare skin, using her own body heat to keep him alive. She had no way of knowing that an even greater danger was approaching.
On January 12, the devastating Children’s Blizzard swept across the Great Plains, bringing ferocious winds, blinding snow, and temperatures plunging far below zero. Hundreds of people were caught in the storm, and 235 lives were lost. Wilhelm was stranded in the open prairie when the blizzard struck. After his horses collapsed, he stumbled toward shelter and eventually crawled into a barn, where he survived for three days by huddling among pigs for warmth. Meanwhile, Kate remained in the cabin, holding Henry close through the freezing nights, with no fire, no help, and no certainty that her husband would ever return. For days, her own warmth and determination became her newborn’s only protection against the deadly cold.
When the storm finally passed, Wilhelm made his way home, frostbitten and barely able to stand, but alive. He built a fire, and the cabin slowly warmed again. Kate and Henry had survived against extraordinary odds. The couple went on to raise seven children, build a life on the prairie, and Kate lived into her nineties. Her story is a powerful reminder that courage does not always announce itself with grand gestures. Sometimes, it is a frightened young mother lying in the darkness, refusing to let go of her child. The world may never know the names of countless ordinary heroes, but their extraordinary acts of love and survival deserve to be remembered.
James retweeted
Eli Lilly created an anti gay drug
$10k per share
I've been taking Reta since June titrating from 0.5mg to 4mg currently getting to lose this extra 40lbs. I'm 26lbs down and also lost my attraction towards men. I've been gay for the last 11 years and every time I'm with a male I feel shame and want throw up afterwards. I'm feeling attracted towards women in a way I've never felt before and I don't know how to deal with this. What did reta do to me?
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This is an ad.
x.com/pepfessions/st…
James retweeted
🚨 THE AI BOOM COULD BE INFLATING TECH PROFITS.
Tech profit margins have surged above 30%, while spending on equipment and software has reached nearly 5% of U.S. GDP, surpassing Dot-Com bubble levels.
But there's a catch.
When Nvidia sells a GPU, it records the profit immediately.
The company buying it, however, spreads the cost over several years instead of taking the full hit to earnings today.
So billions are being spent on AI, while much of the cost will only show up in future earnings.
And nobody knows if these massive investments will generate enough revenue to justify them.
If AI returns disappoint, today's record tech profits could face serious pressure as those costs keep piling up.
And with the entire stock market depending so heavily on AI, a major earnings disappointment could trigger a much bigger market crash.
James retweeted
Paul Tudor Jones says US stocks are 252% of GDP - vs. 170% at the dot-com peak - and a 35% mean reversion would wipe out 89% of GDP
"We're clearly in a sovereign debt bubble"
The trader who called the 1987 crash told "Invest Like The Best" why both AI and this market worry him:
> "The Genie's Out Of The Bottle" (1:30):
- After he warned about AI on CNBC, Warren Buffett sent him a note: "I agree with you 100%, but the genie's out of the bottle." At a closed-door conference, the consensus on AI safety: labs will act "when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident"
> Watermark Everything (5:01):
- His one fix: "demand that all AI is watermarked" - and "make it a felony if someone knowingly violates that three times"
> The IPO Wave (16:11):
- The 2000-02 bear market came from the 1999-2000 IPO flood. Next year's planned IPOs: "five, six percent of market cap" - after a decade of buybacks shrinking supply. That money "is going to come out of existing tech stocks"
> 252% Of GDP (17:56):
- 1929: 65%
- 1987: 85-90%
- 2000: 170%
- Today: 252%
A 30-35% mean reversion is a wealth hit of "89% of GDP" - and capital gains taxes, 10% of revenue, "go to zero"
Every day I break down what the smart money really thinks about AI
