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Someone asked me one time how many followers I had. I honestly didn't know or even how to look. I got on twitter for its original purpose: To allow me to shout my thoughts into a dark void and not at unsuspecting staff, or the delivery guy.
Day 1707 of the war in Ukraine and here's the latest daily thread. It's one of those days when things are a little more awkward than usual, but I'll do my best to maintain the high standards you expect.
Fact checked news & analysis , always delivered with humanity and humour.
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Mendel's narrative that Ukraine has "rejected" easy peace deals or bears responsibility for the war’s continuation and destruction is disinformation. Here's why:
1. The Istanbul Talks (April 2022)
Claim:
Ukraine was offered a favorable deal in Istanbul to keep its territory (minus Crimea/Donbas) in exchange for neutrality and army reduction, but Zelenskyy unilaterally declined.
Rebuttal:
Demilitarization as a Trap: Russia’s Istanbul demand for a drastically reduced Ukrainian military (capping forces at levels that would leave Ukraine defenseless) was designed to make future invasion effortless. Accepting demilitarization without ironclad security guarantees was an invitation to total conquest down the road.
The Guarantee Catch: Russia demanded a veto over any future collective security response if Ukraine were attacked again. Under Moscow's terms, if Russia invaded a second time, Russia itself would have to agree before any external power could legally intervene to assist Ukraine.
Bucha and Russian War Crimes: The Istanbul talks collapsed primarily due to the discovery of mass atrocities in Bucha, Irpin, and Izium as Russian troops retreated from Kyiv. Russian war crimes demonstrated that "agreements" with Moscow meant surrendering Ukrainian citizens to occupation, torture, and mass graves.
No Real Russian Commitment: Russia never offered a binding, full withdrawal from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Kharkiv during those early talks; Moscow was attempting to consolidate military control while stalling for time after its initial push on Kyiv failed.
2. Late 2022 & The Kherson Liberation
Claim:
After Russian forces withdrew from Kherson city, Ukraine refused a potential ceasefire brokered or suggested by the US to continue the war.
Rebuttal:
Operational Momentum: In late 2022, Ukraine had just scored major strategic victories in Kharkiv and Kherson. Accepting a premature ceasefire would have allowed a severely weakened, retreating Russian military time to entrench, dig extensive defensive lines (which they later did with the Surovikin Line), rearm, and forcibly draft hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops.
Freezing the Conflict Benefits the Aggressor: A ceasefire without Russian withdrawal simply converts temporary frontline positions into de facto borders. Ukraine’s experience from 2014 to 2022 (Minsk I & II) proved that a frozen conflict only gives Russia time to prepare its next offense.
US Policy Alignment: The claim that Zelenskyy single-handedly "persuaded" the US to force Ukraine to fight ignores the fundamental principle repeatedly articulated by international law and Western coalition strategy: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
3. Early 2023 "Back-Channel Deal"
Claim:
A deal was on the table to return to pre-February 2022 borders in exchange for neutrality and recognizing Crimea as Russian, but Ukrainian leadership turned it down.
Rebuttal:
Unsubstantiated Fantasy: There is zero official evidence that Vladimir Putin ever agreed to abandon Russia's illegally annexed "four new regions" (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk), which Moscow formally incorporated into the Russian Constitution in September 2022.
Constitutional Reality in Moscow: Following Russia’s formal annexation decree in late 2022, Putin repeatedly insisted that the "new territorial realities" were non-negotiable. Reverting to pre-2022 lines was explicitly ruled out by the Kremlin's public and private declarations.
Rewarding Aggression: Surrendering Crimea formally would validate Russia's aggressive land grabs, violate international law regarding territorial integrity, and leave the Black Sea permanent security threat unaddressed.
4. The July 2024 Energy Ceasefire & Kursk
Claim:
Ukraine disrupted an energy ceasefire mediated via the Middle East by launching the Kursk operation.
Rebuttal:
Asymmetric Warfare and Strategic Initiative: The Kursk offensive was a tactical and strategic necessity designed to relieve pressure on the Eastern front in Donetsk, force Russia to reallocate troops to its own border, create a territorial bargaining chip, and demonstrate that Russia’s border was vulnerable.
Russian Destruction of Energy Grids: Russia began its systematic campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the fall of 2022—long before Kursk. Moscow’s attacks on civilian infrastructure were designed to freeze the civilian population into submission, not to negotiate a genuine energy truce in good faith.
Leverage for Peace: A state defending itself against an existential threat cannot rely on unratified, informal promises while its eastern territory is being taken day by day.
5. Blaming the Victim for Destruction and "Degradation"
Claim:
Because Ukraine did not accept Russia's terms, Ukrainian leadership is responsible for the destruction of the country, casualties, and degradation of the state.
Rebuttal:
Shifting Moral and Legal Guilt: Every dead Ukrainian, ruined power plant, and displaced refugee is the direct legal and moral responsibility of the aggressor - the Russian Federation - which launched an illegal, unprovoked full-scale war of conquest. Blaming Ukraine for defending its territory is classical victim-blaming.
Capitulation vs. Survival: Capitulation does not stop human suffering; it merely converts battlefield fighting into mass repression, occupation terror, forced Russification, conscription of Ukrainians into the Russian military, and the elimination of the Ukrainian nation-state.
Summary
The premise of Mendel's narrative rests on the false assumption that Vladimir Putin was acting as a rational actor offering genuine peace in good faith.
Throughout the conflict, Russia’s fundamental goal has remained unchanged: the total political control or subjugation of Ukraine. Ceasefire proposals offered by Moscow under terms of demilitarization and territorial concession are not paths to peace; they are operational pauses designed to secure Russian gains and set up the next phase of conquest. Defending sovereignty against an existential threat is not a choice made out of stubbornness - it is a necessity for survival.
Let’s go through the peace deals Zelenskyy rejected.
• Istanbul agreement, 2022
Ukraine needed to refuse NATO accession, reduce the army, Russia would withdraw from the Kyiv reg., possibly from the Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. At that point the scale of destruction was still limited and the number of dead was far lower. In April 2022 Zelenskyy declined the deal.
• End of 2022
Russian forces withdrew from part of the Kherson region. Zelenskyy traveled to meet Biden and, acc. to my sources, later confirmed by Mr. Blinken in the New York Times, persuaded the WH to continue the war. The precise terms of any proposed deal remain unknown, but sources indicate there was readiness to declare at least a ceasefire.
• Beginning of 2023
Through unofficial channels between the United States and Russia, an understanding took shape: Putin agreed to withdraw to the borders that existed before the full-scale invasion—freeing nearly everything conquered that year—in exchange for Ukraine’s refusal of NATO accession and recognition of Crimea as Russian. Zelenskyy and Yermak refused. Since then nearly a million people have been killed or wounded, several million have become refugees, parts of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions have been occupied, more of Zaporizhzhia has been taken, Kherson lies in ruins, the Chernihiv and Sumy regions face constant shelling, Kyiv itself has become almost a front-line city, the energy system has been destroyed, businesses cannot operate, exports have stalled, and the country is degrading.
• July 2024
An arrangement that began with an energy ceasefire, modeled on the Istanbul understandings and mediated through the Middle East. While negotiations were under way, Zelenskyy also planned the Kursk operation, which ultimately disrupted all the arrangements.
• March 2025
After the Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskyy, European leaders gathered in London in early March. The British government stated that a number of options were on the table and that Ukraine had to choose. As always, nothing came of it.
Whether Putin was prepared each time to implement any agreements remains unknown, yet on several occasions he carried out what he had promised. Does this remove his responsibility for the deaths, the horrors, and the destruction in Ukraine? No.
But the country is degrading, the state apparatus is degrading, and corruption finishes what Putin’s missiles, drones, and bombs did not destroy. Inhumanity has effectively become a state strategy and a national ideology promoted at every turn.
Ukraine simply cannot win this way—there are neither economic, nor demographic, nor any other grounds for it. Therefore, if Zelenskyy does not agree to a deal with realistic terms now, Ukraine will be forced to capitulate. And that is deeply alarming, because it can actually cost the country its independence and sovereignty.
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
🔴 I am the only foreign journalist reporting from Kherson at this moment so I will be doing updates from the ground throughout the day.
As of 09:00, the enemy adheres to the regime of silence 1/2
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
🇺🇦🇪🇺 NEW: Ukraine says it has completed its part of FREYJA, the multinational project to develop a European ballistic missile defence system.
But where does the rest of the project stand?
• 🇺🇦 Fire Point - FP-7.X interceptor and launcher development.
• 🇩🇪 Hensoldt - Radar cooperation agreement.
• 🇩🇰 Weibel - Proposed radar option.
• 🇳🇴 Kongsberg - Developing command-and-control integration.
• 🇩🇪 Diehl Defence - Potential missile seeker supplier.
The project involves 10 founding countries and more than a dozen defence companies.
Fire Point has already conducted multiple interceptor tests, but integrating the radars, guidance systems and command infrastructure remains a major challenge.
Next milestone: A working prototype targeted for H1 2027, with the first ballistic missile interception test planned around mid-2027.
FREYJA is not operational yet. Its ambition is to provide Europe with a substantially cheaper alternative to existing ballistic missile interceptors.
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
🚨BREAKING: We have moved for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction enjoining Trump from continuing to unconstitutionally impose themselves upon election administration procedures that the Constitution and federal law assign to the States.
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Absolute fire here from Monique Ryan:
“She is a negative force in Australian politics.”
For decades Pauline Hanson has been platformed and legitimised despite the racism, bigotry and division.
If you’re going to give her the platform and the reach, then hold her to account.
Now that we are seeing signs that the both the tech market and property market are in the shit in 🇨🇳, I think its time for the allies of 🇺🇦 to start pressuring 🇨🇳 to stop supporting 🇷🇺 in the war or we will help your economy collapse further by embargoing purchases of your stuff
China's 2008 is happening now.
Property investment in China dropped -21% YoY in the first 9 months of 2026, its largest decline for this period of the year on record.
This marks a deterioration from a -20% YoY decline in the first 8 months of 2026.
The latest drop is also significantly worse than the -16% decline recorded during the 2020 pandemic.
Property investment in China has now contracted every month since 2022, its longest declining streak on record.
For perspective, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, this figure never fell below +1% YoY growth.
China's property sector is experiencing a historic downturn.
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Genocide in Ukraine - EU Edition Jennie @jenniesjoylab & Will @willthiel
3am Eastern/9am Kyiv
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1pJkOXBgPvyJj
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Join us on Capitol Hill at Independence Ave and New Jersey by Longworth House Office building until 6 pm today Monday. 🍁
Remember to call your Representative and Senators, visit their district offices, and tell them to support Ukraine.
#CrimeaIsUkraine 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Elon Musk said nobody has any plan for how to end the war in Ukraine. Not true, I have a plan. The plan is building as many ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and strike drones as humanely possible and launching so many of them into Russia that Russia begins to crumble.
Yeah, . . . naw. I think I’ll definitely wait until @KaterynaLis tells me the cliffs notes on that, if there is even are any in that. Looks like a prison sentence reading that much covfefe.
Dreamin’. . . and I’m not saying the D’s won’t hold both houses, because they will, possibly in useful majorities. The best that can be expected by 🇺🇸 is to NOT drop sanctions, keep ‘selling’ weapons to 🇺🇦 and work on themself. 🇪🇺 steps up with urgency or waits for Pearl Harbour.
Democratic control of Congress after the 3 November midterms could restore American aid to Ukraine and curb President Donald Trump’s Russia deals
Trump has largely halted direct US aid to Ukraine, and current supplies come from earlier packages
euromaidanpress.com/2026/10/…
Will Thiel 🇦🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Here is some short video explanation about lies of Elon Musk about Starlink and Starshield used in Ukraine from Ukrainian volunteer and former advisor to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine @sternenko .
Once again @elonmusk showing what a totally clueless fucking moron he is, or how in the bag he is for Absurdistan🇷🇺
🇷🇺 law does not allow conscripts to be sent out of the country unless a war is declared, which it hasn’t. Every 🇷🇺 soldier in 🇺🇦 is there for the money promised
Attention all African countries citizens: If a 🇷🇺 agent offers to sponsor your visa and travel to go to Absurdistan🇷🇺 to take a ‘construction’ job, don’t lie to yourself. You’ll be sent to 🇺🇦 to die in their imperialistic invasion and become another victim of their colonisation.
































