jonathan

The past 24 hours over the Desert Southwest have been concerning from an NWS warning issuance standpoint. We’ve had: • warnings issued based on contaminated data • a TOR for a left split (spinning the “wrong” way) • several delayed/missed events (both tornadoes and giant hail) • polygons that miss the actual circulation • ongoing debris signatures that are missed I’m pro-expertise and pro-NWS — when they win, we all win. But critiquing poor performance scientifically is, at times, important. It’s tough to justify keeping 122 offices staffed for warning operations when consistency and quality are obvious problems. The case for centralized warning operations is getting stronger, which is both good and bad. I’m working on a longer piece and am not going to prematurely release it before I make sure every detail is presented fairly and completely — but there is a deeper conversation that needs to be had. If anyone has any specific examples (both from this event or otherwise) that you feel I should look into, DM me.

A developing medicane, or Mediterranean hurricane-like system, will pose wind and water hazards this week. Locally significant flooding is probable *somewhere*, but we don't have the confidence to determine where yet. I'll be dissecting my subjective forecasts in @MyRadarWX: