2outted

$INTC is trading at a ridiculously cheap valuation, in my opinion. I expect things to get significantly more on track from H2 onwards. Granted, this isn’t the $100B–$120B bull-case scenario I previously modelled. However, I believe this forecast is highly realistic, particularly when factoring in the headwinds Intel signalled during its latest earnings call. It also doesn’t assume anything close to the 70% YoY growth AMD is projecting for next year. This is a more measured outlook, with room for upside if execution improves. Intel likely won’t be free-cash-flow positive for another year, largely because of the substantial investments required to scale its foundry business and attract external customers. But that’s investment in future growth, not simply spending for the sake of spending. The market seems to be heavily discounting Intel’s long-term potential because of its near-term cash flow requirements. I don’t think that’s justified. Google is also investing aggressively for future growth, yet the market recognises the value of those investments. Intel deserves to be evaluated with a similar long-term perspective. My view is that Intel doesn’t deserve to trade below $100 per share. I expect free cash flow to turn positive from 2028 onwards, as foundry investments increasingly translate into external customer revenue, scale and profitability. The real opportunity is in what Intel is building for 2028 and beyond, not just the next quarter.