Trader/investor, always learning. Don't take my posts as advice to buy/sell. Love God, Love One Another, Be Grateful, Be Humble, Have Fun
California
Joined March 2017
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☀️ $SPRU THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES!
Solar stocks are heating up again, and Spruce Power's valuation is getting hard to ignore.
✅ Approximately $27M market cap
✅ $81.5M cash including restricted cash
✅ $802M gross solar portfolio value
✅ 83,000 owned home solar assets
✅ 10 years average remaining contract life
✅ $3.3M Q2 net profit
✅ Record $26.5M quarterly Operating EBITDA
✅ $30.3M quarterly revenue
✅ $42M remaining under share buyback authorization as of Q2
✅ Steel Partners increased its ownership in September
🔥 HISTORY COULD REPEAT ITSELF?
Last November, following earnings, SPRU reportedly surged from $2.60 to over $6, a 130%+ rally!
NEXT CATALYST: Q3 EARNINGS NOVEMBER 12!
With a beaten down valuation, improving profitability and a potential refinancing catalyst, could another explosive move be setting up?
$SPWR $RUN $NOVA $ENPH $SEDG $FSLR $ARRY $CSIQ
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$INTC is trading at a ridiculously cheap valuation, in my opinion.
I expect things to get significantly more on track from H2 onwards. Granted, this isn’t the $100B–$120B bull-case scenario I previously modelled. However, I believe this forecast is highly realistic, particularly when factoring in the headwinds Intel signalled during its latest earnings call.
It also doesn’t assume anything close to the 70% YoY growth AMD is projecting for next year. This is a more measured outlook, with room for upside if execution improves.
Intel likely won’t be free-cash-flow positive for another year, largely because of the substantial investments required to scale its foundry business and attract external customers. But that’s investment in future growth, not simply spending for the sake of spending.
The market seems to be heavily discounting Intel’s long-term potential because of its near-term cash flow requirements. I don’t think that’s justified.
Google is also investing aggressively for future growth, yet the market recognises the value of those investments. Intel deserves to be evaluated with a similar long-term perspective.
My view is that Intel doesn’t deserve to trade below $100 per share. I expect free cash flow to turn positive from 2028 onwards, as foundry investments increasingly translate into external customer revenue, scale and profitability.
The real opportunity is in what Intel is building for 2028 and beyond, not just the next quarter.
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$82,500 of $AAOI $140 calls were just purchased at $2.75 per contract.
Expiring Jun 17, 2027.
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The company said it would request a hearing with Nasdaq, and the timely request could temporarily halt the scheduled suspension until the committee's decision.
$PARA
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$INTC - INTEL CORP | CEO TAN LIP BU | BOUGHT $9.71M @ $64.73 | AFTER -40% 5D SELLOFF
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$SURG
Does NOT have rs voted on
Recently closed $27m asset sale to strengthen balance sheet
Has been dropping bullish pr for weeks
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$SURG CEO Brian Cox highlights the prepaid wireless agreement with Etime system, which committed to purchasing at least $48M in airtime, top-up and refill transactions from SurgePays. The Agreement generates new volume, strengthening SurgePays POS. bit.ly/4yTVXsn
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$SURG $48M over the next year on a $8M market cap
$SURG SURGEPAYS SIGNS A PREPAID WIRELESS AGREEMENT WITH ETIME SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST $48M IN ANNUAL PURCHASE VOLUME, INCLUDING A MINIMUM OF $4M PER MONTH FROM OCTOBER 1, 2026, TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2027, WITH ANNUAL RENEWAL AT THE SAME MINIMUM, ALREADY IN EFFECT SINCE EARLY OCTOBER
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$INTC In exactly one (1) month, INTC is down approx. -52.5% (~$66.30). That is -58% from 52-week highs (ATH). Stock is down -35% (-32$) in two (2) days.
The stock has been cut in half in a month. Worthy reaction? That is rhetorical. The answer is no. Intel now has its lowest Daily RSI in 2.5 yrs, when the stock cratered -27.5% (also Earnings). This is the lowest MACD reading in the history of this name.
Valuation
Fun fact on the ridiculousness of this valuation - especially to those who think Intel should be a $20 stock:
• $INTC: about $319B market cap, $59.9B TTM revenue, 5.7x sales, 2.8x book
• $AMD: $768B market cap, $41.3B TTM revenue, 19.5x sales, 12.3x book
• $PLTR: $431B market cap, $6.2B TTM revenue, 71.7x sales, 45x book
- $INTC brings in more revenue than $AMD at about 40% of its value.
Intel Products alone
• Q3 client plus DCAI: $15.4B revenue, $5.3B operating income
• Annualized, that is about $21B of operating income
• At 15x, Intel Products alone is worth about $319B, the entire market cap
What that leaves for Foundry
• $105B of net PP&E, about one third of the market cap
• Foundry revenue of $6.7B, up 58% YoY
• At this price, 18A, 14A and every outside customer come close to free.
Comedy.
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There's potentially some very significant news for $AAOI coming out of a recent supply chain expert interview.
According to a Wistron Group industry expert, $MSFT and $AMZN have already reserved production capacity with $AAOI.
The expert specifically highlighted $AAOI's U.S. manufacturing footprint as a major competitive advantage. Hyperscalers can visit facilities, resolve technical issues, and address quality concerns much faster than with overseas suppliers.
But there's another interesting takeaway.
When asked about $AMD's Helios rack-scale platform, the expert identified Innolight and $AAOI as likely priority suppliers, citing their manufacturing maturity and readiness to support the project's requirements.
This is particularly interesting because it potentially positions $AAOI across multiple major AI infrastructure buildouts, rather than relying on a single customer or platform.
If accurate, the implications are substantial. Reserved capacity suggests customers are actively securing future supply, while potential Helios participation would provide another avenue for growth.
The market continues to focus on $AAOI's valuation and execution risks, but the underlying customer demand picture may be getting considerably stronger.
$AAOI is down about 70% from its high. Is the story broken, or is this where it gets interesting?
We went back through it all:
• The Texas ramp: ~200K to 930K+ units a month by end-2027
• Why capacity isn't revenue
• Bear / base / bull: $30 / $80 / $166
• What U.S. limits on foreign transceivers could mean, and the catch for $AAOI
Earnings are Nov 5. Full breakdown down below.
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$INTC has a strong balance sheet, with $54B in cash and $230B total assets, yet the market is valuing the company at $350B despite projected full-year 2026 revenue of $60B — At these levels, the valuation is difficult to justify given the scale of its assets and revenue. It doesn’t take a genius to recognize that Intel looks severely oversold at current prices.
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America, more than any other nation in world history, was shaped by the Christian tradition of spreading the gospel unto all nations.
Join us in celebrating International Religious Freedom Day.
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Quanome receives $13.5M of $100M Ai inference contract. $15M from CEO. Adds $18.8M in processing power. Quantum-enabled technologies, software applications and systems finds new ways to understand matter, model complex systems and scientific/industrial challenges. Links in thread
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Today, @KodiakRobotics has reached another defining Physical AI milestone as we build the future of freight.
We’ve signed a binding agreement with @DTLTrans that is the first of its kind in the industry.
DTL will deploy the Kodiak Driver in 75 driverless trucks they own and operate.
This validates our Driver-As-A-Service business model, and it represents the latest signal that Physical AI is ready to scale and redefine logistics. Let’s go!
globenewswire.com/news-relea…
