Alex (@AlexSchettino) header
Alex (@AlexSchettino) profile picture
Italy
Joined February 2017
Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)Photo by Alex (@AlexSchettino)
Separated the signal from the noise in April. $IREN thank you. (Still long shares and leaps)
$IREN higher high, lower high, lower high, major bottom. The time has likely come.
32
8
2
218
67,295
$IREN complete insanity
36
11
2
258
35,912
Can only laugh
3
1
72
5,915
This shit has gotten so ridiculous especially given the earnings $IREN just had. Tick tock fuckers. @citrini @SemiAnalysis_ @dylan522p
$IREN at this point I guess you just gotta laugh at the bs.. scumbag manipulation @citrini @dylan522p @SemiAnalysis_ @SECGov
4
1
38
1,485
$IREN As I see it, net asset value today is ~$33/share. That's assigning nothing to the operating business. I've seen estimates from others (who shall remain nameless) ranging from $28 to $40. Even with a pretty penalizing 25% liquidation haircut, we're trading below liquidation value. And that's assigning $0 to their 35 GW pipeline.
10
19
4
228
28,521
If in fact Vera Rubins are "exceptionally scarce" as Dan stated on $IREN earnings call the other day, and the company plans to deploy ~133k Vera Rubins across Childress 5-6 and Sweetwater 1 sites throughout next year, it's becoming more likely that $IREN hits around $20b ARR minimum by year end 2027. This ARR target is highly dependent on what rental rates VR200s get contracted, and with older GPU models (like the H100s) recently getting contracted at double the rental rate from a year before, I don't see why Vera Rubins wouldn't be contracted at rates near $14 per GPU*hr late next year given they were contracted by $WYFI at $7.14 per GPU*hr in Q2/2026. I mean supply of compute continues to become more scarce compared to demand and projections for future compute shortfall continue to widen. This just increases my mid-point price target based on the compute coming online next year (boxed in the center of the chart below). I don't really see $IREN management trading lower pricing terms for higher customer prepayments with their Vera Rubins because of the insane premium they'll command next year, but I could be wrong. Either way, my $500+ price target for $IREN in 2028 is becoming more likely after each quarterly earnings.
I’ve said this before.. I believe $IREN will be generating a bare minimum of $16b ARR by year end 2027. This projection is derived from a bottoms-up approach by calculating approximate GPU quantities per model across each site in $IREN's 2027 roadmap multiplied by various GPU rental rates for each model, and adding it on top of the $4b ARR minimum for 2026 (even though they'll likely generate more than this). The upper end of my model projects $22b ARR, so I’m expecting a range of $16b to $22b in ARR as of right now. This range can definitely shift higher but I aligned with Dan’s recent comments regarding the trade-off between $ per IT MW and customer prepayments. See chart below.👇 GPU Model & Quantity Assumption The GPU quantities for each site were calculated based on the specifications across 2026 sites, assuming that gets copied and pasted into future sites. -> ~80,000 B300s (Childress) -> ~7,600 GB300s (Canal Flats) -> ~132,700 VR200s (Horizon 5-6 and Sweetwater 1) I used the EV/ARR valuation approach to arrive at projected share prices, and since there's debate on here about what multiple $IREN would receive by early 2028, I provided a range from 6x to 15x to show the possibilities. In my opinion, because ARR is expected to 4x from year end 2026 into year end 2027, and then potentially 2x the year after that, I'd think this growth rate would command higher multiples than most are using assuming, especially if we enter a bull market. Balance Sheet - $23b in debt (includes funding for all of 2028 buildout) - $10b in cash Share Dilution I assumed 500m shares outstanding, which takes into account today's 400m shares, NVIDIA's investment (+30m shares), and dilution associated with funding all of 2028 buildout (+35m shares if diluted at an average of $50/share). All this adds up to 465m shares -> round up to 500m shares for conservatism. Keep in mind, I’m assuming customer prepayments remain the same with what we’ve seen in the past when really they’ll likely increase. This could also potentially mean less debt and/or dilution but I’m trying to be conservative with my estimates. Also, if the GPU rental rates I laid out below represent realistic rates that $IREN could contract next year, then it makes the share prices (color coded below) that much more realistic. As I alluded to before, the range of GPU rental rates I applied may shift higher considering the rate in which pricing power is increasing, but I'm taking into account the possibility of contracting lower than expected GPU rental rates in exchange for higher customer prepayments for the foreseeable future. On a final note, at the center of my valuation table I boxed the share price that signifies a middle ground expectation (~$375 per share). This does not necessarily represent my personal base case since I expect $IREN to hit closer to $22b ARR by year end 2027, and with a 12x EV/ARR, this would put the price closer to $500 by 2028. I've been vocal about this on here. I'm just pointing out the middle ground to challenge those claiming that $IREN will be less than $300 by 2028. To me, that doesn’t make sense as it clearly assumes $IREN contracts very low rates throughout next year. Anyway, I hope this framework helps investors better understand the potential possibilities on what share prices we can see for $IREN based on their GPU deployments next year. As always, constructive feedback is welcomed. @BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 @Agrippa_Inv @OInvests @ChairmansLedger @ilzmcfly @mcF_dan @StockAnalystPro
10
13
4
127
18,561
$IREN topped exactly a year ago and bottomed a year later to the exact day. Full circle.
11
2
60
2,727
$IREN 7 now. After that earnings report I have never seen a greater disconnect between share price and fundamentals.
$IREN 6 red weeks in a row.
6
3
133
5,077
$IREN literally saved the stock market and deserves a 50 percent green candle tomorrow !
12
23
726
27,027
$IREN 90 percent pre payment, 5 year deal 22.5m/mw bye bye bear case UPDATE YOUR FUCKING MODELS
$IREN "This quarter Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft with NVIDIA Exemplar status, AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200 million, and operating ARR doubled to a billion.The more than $4 billion of contracted ARR is funded and now targeted for January, after a customer-requested design change and supplier timing moved it from year-end; it may extend to the end of February. Since quarter-end we have signed a five-year contract at about $22 million per megawatt with 90% of the GPU capex prepaid by the customer, and a short-term contract at $40 million per megawatt. We own the land, the power and the data centers under all of it, which gives us more ways to fund growth and lets us set its pace."
3
4
103
2,878
F'ing Republican FUD that the market would crash if the Dems win. Watch, and learn, little ones. AND FUCKING REMEMBER IT FOR NEXT TIME
DEVASTATING outcome for Bitcoin because of the election 😂😂😂
1
1
5
618
Gina Hinojosa may not be as bad for Texas data centers as it looks. Her plan asks for: no subsidies, union labor, no NDAs, and proof household power and water bills won't rise. Much of that is already underway: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI pledged in March to bring their own power and pay for transmission Microsoft pledged to pay full property taxes without seeking tax breaks Nvidia is working with Vistra, NextEra and Constellation on data centers that cut power use when the grid is strained
100
301
76
1,939
355,092
Market rips post elections no matter the outcome.
8
2
1
40
2,265
$IREN sets its IPO high November 2021. Price bottoms 12 months later and goes on an exponential run until setting its new high in November 2025. Price now bottoming 12 months later once again setting up for another exponential rally into 2030? Simulation.
4
36
3,191
Balls + dumb = succesful Smart + balls + hypersuccesful Smart + no balls = monstrously depressed IQ prob isn’t ur problem
164
1,111
85
14,390
638,307
$IREN 6 red weeks in a row.
18
1
72
11,478
I’ve said this before.. I believe $IREN will be generating a bare minimum of $16b ARR by year end 2027. This projection is derived from a bottoms-up approach by calculating approximate GPU quantities per model across each site in $IREN's 2027 roadmap multiplied by various GPU rental rates for each model, and adding it on top of the $4b ARR minimum for 2026 (even though they'll likely generate more than this). The upper end of my model projects $22b ARR, so I’m expecting a range of $16b to $22b in ARR as of right now. This range can definitely shift higher but I aligned with Dan’s recent comments regarding the trade-off between $ per IT MW and customer prepayments. See chart below.👇 GPU Model & Quantity Assumption The GPU quantities for each site were calculated based on the specifications across 2026 sites, assuming that gets copied and pasted into future sites. -> ~80,000 B300s (Childress) -> ~7,600 GB300s (Canal Flats) -> ~132,700 VR200s (Horizon 5-6 and Sweetwater 1) I used the EV/ARR valuation approach to arrive at projected share prices, and since there's debate on here about what multiple $IREN would receive by early 2028, I provided a range from 6x to 15x to show the possibilities. In my opinion, because ARR is expected to 4x from year end 2026 into year end 2027, and then potentially 2x the year after that, I'd think this growth rate would command higher multiples than most are using assuming, especially if we enter a bull market. Balance Sheet - $23b in debt (includes funding for all of 2028 buildout) - $10b in cash Share Dilution I assumed 500m shares outstanding, which takes into account today's 400m shares, NVIDIA's investment (+30m shares), and dilution associated with funding all of 2028 buildout (+35m shares if diluted at an average of $50/share). All this adds up to 465m shares -> round up to 500m shares for conservatism. Keep in mind, I’m assuming customer prepayments remain the same with what we’ve seen in the past when really they’ll likely increase. This could also potentially mean less debt and/or dilution but I’m trying to be conservative with my estimates. Also, if the GPU rental rates I laid out below represent realistic rates that $IREN could contract next year, then it makes the share prices (color coded below) that much more realistic. As I alluded to before, the range of GPU rental rates I applied may shift higher considering the rate in which pricing power is increasing, but I'm taking into account the possibility of contracting lower than expected GPU rental rates in exchange for higher customer prepayments for the foreseeable future. On a final note, at the center of my valuation table I boxed the share price that signifies a middle ground expectation (~$375 per share). This does not necessarily represent my personal base case since I expect $IREN to hit closer to $22b ARR by year end 2027, and with a 12x EV/ARR, this would put the price closer to $500 by 2028. I've been vocal about this on here. I'm just pointing out the middle ground to challenge those claiming that $IREN will be less than $300 by 2028. To me, that doesn’t make sense as it clearly assumes $IREN contracts very low rates throughout next year. Anyway, I hope this framework helps investors better understand the potential possibilities on what share prices we can see for $IREN based on their GPU deployments next year. As always, constructive feedback is welcomed. @BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 @Agrippa_Inv @OInvests @ChairmansLedger @ilzmcfly @mcF_dan @StockAnalystPro
25
26
7
219
36,110
If he’s right again there’s undoubtedly nobody better on this app calling each macro move
You're not ready for the rally that's coming
12
6
1
460
34,920