投资笔记｜AI前瞻｜美企洞察｜国际宏观
Anaheim, CA
Joined November 2021
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Alpha Cat retweeted
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
Alpha Cat retweeted
$GOOGL on call: "Given the supply constraint environment, we started utilizing third party compute capacity at the end of Q3 and will ramp usage in Q4. We expect margin headwinds in the near term as we utilize this capacity. Moving to investments, our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range of 195 to $205 billion remain unchanged. We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027, and will provide further details on our Q4 call."
Alpha Cat retweeted
⚡Iterating at lightning speed! Gemini 4 Carbon is SOTA across key benchmarks and combines frontier capabilities with deep safety & security research.
Alpha Cat retweeted
Anthropic has more cash than almost every company in America.
The nearly 6-year-old artificial intelligence lab disclosed on Monday in an S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it had $112.4 billion in cash, plus another $19.3 billion in short-term investments, as of June 30.
Read more: cnb.cx/4f0cFPJ
Alpha Cat retweeted
$INTC: Server CPU pricing adds another lever to revenue growth
Morgan Stanley’s October 26 weekly says Intel is ramping server supply while raising like-for-like prices by double digits for more transactional customers. That is distinct from Intel’s 48% year-over-year server ASP increase in Q2, which was driven mainly by premium-product mix. Those premium products also carried higher unit costs.
Xeon 6 combines Intel 3 compute dies with Intel 7 I/O dies through EMIB packaging. Increasing compute-wafer output alone does not guarantee an equivalent increase in finished CPUs: the I/O dies, packaging and testing must scale together. Server buyers also need validated memory, firmware and I/O configurations, making substitution more involved than simply choosing another processor with the same core count.
This is bullish for Intel’s server business. Higher prices on comparable CPUs point to improving pricing power rather than growth driven only by more expensive models. Combined with expanding supply, that strengthens the case for server revenue and earnings growth.
$ARM $AMD $INTC
Alpha Cat retweeted
$SKHY: "The recent moves by some customers to adjust HBM specifications illustrate that demand is indeed overwhelming supply. With HBM supply remaining constrained, customers need to build more AI accelerators and systems using limited quantity. So we see the stack lowering as a strategy to increase the number of cubes that can be obtained for the same capacity."
Alpha Cat retweeted
THE CEASEFIRE HAS COMMENCED
The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia took effect at 4:00am Moscow time on October 27, 2026.
Timing was accelerated two days ahead of schedule to protect the safety of civilians and to facilitate the delivery of critical humanitarian aid. The ceasefire’s geographic area has expanded beyond Oleshky, within the Kherson Region, to provide safe passage for the humanitarian convoys.
General Valery Gerasimov, Joint Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has confirmed.
Alpha Cat retweeted
Cute 🥰
I was the opening act for a family of ducks.
Thank you, Berlin. What a GTC.
Europe is building its AI ecosystem and economy, from AI factories to agents to robots.
DSX POD: Vera Rubin modular factories built, cabled and tested in the factory, then delivered ready to produce intelligence.
Agents: models, harnesses, sandboxes, knowledge and tools. NVIDIA Agent Toolkit brings the pieces together so companies control what their agents know, access and do. NVIDIA OpenShell enhances safety.
Physical AI: new customers across AI-RAN, robotaxis and robotics.
Personal AI: after four years building with Microsoft, RTX Spark brings personal agents to the Windows PC.
Thank you to President @EmmanuelMacron, Prime Minister @andyburnham and Chancellor @bundeskanzler for hosting me. Great to celebrate Sferical One with Sweden’s technology leaders. And thank you to President @TokayevKZ for the warm welcome.
And to our partners and NVIDIA teams: thank you for making it happen.
The keynote is here: youtu.be/rF1EsryCAwc
Alpha Cat retweeted
Do not quote retweet this or I will be forced to give people $42.0 or $420!
This is not engagement farming, it’s 1am and I’m bored AF and we all deserve a 420 break!
Do not quote retweet or you might get smashed with X Money
Alpha Cat retweeted
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st
Approximate change YTD:
- H200: +160%
- B200: +120%
- RTX PRO 6000: +65%
- H100: +35%
Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
Alpha Cat retweeted
InP, CoWoS/CoPoS, Silicon Wafers
InP:
> Supply capacity is about 60–75 million wafers, while demand reaches 260–300 million, a supply gap of over 70%.
> Production MOCVD tools have a ~1.5-year wait, with delivery lead times of 16–22 months. Only 3–4 suppliers worldwide, so mass production isn’t possible.
> Building InP fabs and qualifying them takes at least 2–3 years.
> S/D ratio off InP EPI wafer supply trending towards 75% by 2030.
CoWoS/CoPoS:
> Fubon estimates CoPoS monthly capacity: only ~5K wafers by 1Q28, ~30K by 4Q28. CoWoS: ~90K wafers in 2Q26, ~220K in 4Q28
> Nomura estimates TSMC CoWoS capacity: 675K wafers in 2025, 1.275M in 2026, 2.73M in 2027
Silicon Wafers:
> Global silicon wafer supply-demand gap will widen from about 8% at end-2026 to 15% in 2027 and 24% in 2028
> 12-inch wafer prices are expected to rise about 15–25% in 2027
$AXTI $TSM
Pics below are translated using Claude AI
Alpha Cat retweeted
Did you see what $NVDA just announced?
While Wall Street debates the AI bubble, NVIDIA is aggressively expanding its supply chain.
- Substrate capacity: 2.5x over 3 years
- Advanced packaging: 4x+ by end of 2028
- CPO optical engine capacity: 15x by mid-2027
That last number deserves serious attention.
The market is questioning AI demand. NVIDIA is preparing to manufacture the next generation of optical interconnects at scale.
$NVDA $COHR $LITE $AVGO
Alpha Cat retweeted
霍华德·马克斯在彭博社：
橡树资本联席主席霍华德·马克斯正在与亿万富翁空头合唱团分道扬镳。虽然雷·达里奥和迈克尔·伯里警告人工智能交易正接近爆破点，但马克斯于10月18日告诉彭博社，他目前并未看到经典泡沫。他的测试是心理层面的。真正的泡沫需要对风险视而不见的投资者，而这种盲目在华尔街每天争论泡沫时根本无处可寻。“如果足够多的人谨慎地质疑某个领域是否存在泡沫，那么就有充分理由相信，即使它是一个泡沫，市场也会表现得非常克制。”
马克斯并没有挥手抹去警告信号。他承认人工智能建设中存在高估值、投机性融资和沉重债务。但他表示，投资者热情尚未达到共识极端，他指出纳斯达克100指数今年已至少回落10%，以此作为证据，证明这并非过去崩盘前那种毫无节制的狂奔。这是熊市充斥的市场中最响亮的逆向声音，它重塑了问题：不是泡沫是否存在，而是广受恐惧的泡沫还能跑多远。
Alpha Cat retweeted
Trump on Iran:
The world is very thankful for what we're doing.
You're gonna see some very low oil prices very soon.
Alpha Cat retweeted
Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion. They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn't listen.
I pray that France, a beautiful country of amazing people, will stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn.
And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.
