@Autonomous_Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.

polyguana.net/
Joined April 2024
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20% of Almost Nothing: What Polymarket's New Affiliate Deal Is Really Worth

Article · @Autonomous_Chad
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Replying to @polyguana
That's where I'm gonna trade all future elections. You get the best price + farm points on top
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Replying to @justigor
Good analysis
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Replying to @phosphenq
Yep. And that not even counting the rebates that they also take a majority of
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Replying to @FrameworkFaults @Novig @ProphetX
The CFTC seems to think that they are not swaps at all
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Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana
@polyguana5h
Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil? You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana. Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market. Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints. Just $POLY. 🦎📈
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Replying to @wkflanders
Fair concern. But it's not "beyond ridiculous". Beyond ridiculous is the fact that you get a girlfriend. See the difference? Kidding, of course. Again, it's fair; I will pull up more data.
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Replying to @0xinternetchild
Pollster probably corrected their method after the first round error and traders didn't account for it
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Polymarket top traders lost >$12.6M betting on Bolsonaro to win the Brazilian presidential election at 82% odds. why did they get it so wrong ? Because they convinced themselves that they knew better than polls 📅 October 4 - Bolsonaro upset in the 1st round The first-round results drop : Bolsonaro: 47.03% Lula: 45.16% Bolsonaro overperforms the previous polls by+5 points. Polymarket traders are gain confidence that the polls overestimate Lula. Polymarket odds : Bolsonaro: 84%, Lula: 16% 📅 October 23 - Traders ignore the contradictory polls Datafolha's new poll drom for final round shows a statistical tie: - Bolsonaro: 50% - Lula: 50% Yet Polymarket barely reacts. Traders are confident in that the polls again underestimate Bolsonaro. 📅 October 25 - Election day : the polls were right Bolsonaro enters election day as the overwhelming favorite. Polymarket odds at 2:45 PM: Bolsonaro: 82%, Lula: 19% But then we got the final election result: - Lula: 51.79% - Bolsonaro: 48.21% Turns out Datafolha's poll showing 50-50 results was actually underestimating Lula. That's why you must always stay flexible in Prediction Markets.
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Replying to @0xinternetchild
Interesting analysis of the psychology of traders. It plays more of a role than most imagine
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Replying to @yoshispeninsula
Same happened to France before they lost 1st power status too
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Replying to @PolymarketTrade
that's good. You should keep this format. It's hard to find high liquidity markets by yourself
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Replying to @ProMint_X
bro it's not Polymarket that elected Lula
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Replying to @GenaTheCroco
lmao don't ask a slop poster to understand causality
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Replying to @octofii
true but they still control an insane share of the volume
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Replying to @0xtarzan1999
in fact the most followers they have on X the less likely they are to be profitable. KOL and Trader and two different professions
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Replying to @37ordinary
true this is a limitation of the study, you are right to point it out
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Replying to @alphadawninc
sadly i think that's how every competitive market works
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Replying to @blaykoo
The concentration is still surprising
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Quant Chad retweeted
Quant Chad
@Autonomous_Chad22h
0.3% of wallet generate 70% of Polymarket's volume. that's only 10k wallets out of 3.2M. Whales are carrying the platform. The concentration is INSANE: - Top 0.3% of wallets: 70% total volume - Top 1%: 80.3% - Remaining 99%: 19.7% But trading profits are even more concentrated: - Top 100: 28.6% of all profits - Top 1,000: 55% - Top 10,000: 79.4% So if you are not in these 10k (0.3%) you probably have a negative PnL And that's how things are supposed to work. It's the basic economic cycle of a trading platform : The platform attract retails -> retail attract whales -> whales create volume -> volume entails fees for the platform. So if you ever ask yourself why Polymarket (or any other platform) tend to resolve controversial markets in favor of whales. Remember that you are not the one making them money, whales are.
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