0.3% of wallet generate 70% of Polymarket's volume. that's only 10k wallets out of 3.2M. Whales are carrying the platform. The concentration is INSANE: - Top 0.3% of wallets: 70% total volume - Top 1%: 80.3% - Remaining 99%: 19.7% But trading profits are even more concentrated: - Top 100: 28.6% of all profits - Top 1,000: 55% - Top 10,000: 79.4% So if you are not in these 10k (0.3%) you probably have a negative PnL And that's how things are supposed to work. It's the basic economic cycle of a trading platform : The platform attract retails -> retail attract whales -> whales create volume -> volume entails fees for the platform. So if you ever ask yourself why Polymarket (or any other platform) tend to resolve controversial markets in favor of whales. Remember that you are not the one making them money, whales are.

Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big. At best it's a niche product. Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume. No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without. Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them. The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it. And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan. So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market. The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet. Full case study in comments

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets. It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts. Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets : - Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game? - Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before? - Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score? - Who will score the 1st point in a Football game? They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton. If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate : - July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention. - September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general - October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets ---- next ---- - The CFTC bans mention markets ? - The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ? Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain. That's >$100M for builders. Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets. that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February. This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE. The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July. in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved: - $53.3B in monthly DEX volume - 10.8M daily transactions peak - Over $1B in stablecoin supply But since mid September, the momentum started fading : - Daily transactions down 42% - Active addresses down 31% - Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now. I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building : - Tokenized asset infrastructure - AI-powered financial services - Credit and lending protocols - *Prediction market infrastructure* This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space. Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders. No real grants. No promotion. No technical support. So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program. the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.

Breaking: The employee of OpenAI arrested for planting an audio recording device in the company's executive conference room was identified as @gainzy222 A bisexual crypto streamer based in Tel Aviv

Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average. This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard Let me explain 1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES Whales need dumb counter parties. Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that. To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against. This is called “soft flow” 2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE -> More soft flow -> more food for whales -> more trading volume -> more fees for Hyperliquid. PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user. It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses. If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform. Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform. The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform. 3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle. Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets. Each builder can target a specific retail audience : - sports fans - regional communities - crypto traders - finance bros etc. That's a huge distribution advantage. Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work. HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits. That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets