a Zeleny

Four analyses are pointing at related pieces of the same large Democratic advantage in the 2026 midterms, and together they describe a strange Democratic lead that was already visible in the early vote. @TruthAnswersAll “15% Band” formula shows the final Senate and governor results fit a simple pattern: Republicans received about 85% of Trump’s 2024 share, while Democrats received Harris’s 2024 share plus 15% of Trump’s. The shift was roughly constant across red and blue states. @DataRepublican noted that a consistent ~15-point shift toward Democrats was already visible in the early vote once in-person early voting ramped up, and that the final results matched what the early numbers had been showing. I examined the early-vote registration data. Early ballots were up roughly 16 million from 2022. In states that report party registration, those ballots were about 42.6% Democrat and 31% Republican. A Democratic candidate advantage on the order of 14 million would require roughly 89% of the added early ballots to have gone Democratic — a concentration that does not line up with the reported registration split. @WallStreetApes compiled the EAVS report figures showing ~20.3 million new valid voter registrations between 2022 and 2024 in 37 states that do not require documentary proof of citizenship. That volume is large enough to matter for the absolute size of the Democratic edge. The numbers connect through scale and timing. The ~15-point shift measured in the finals and already visible in the early vote is the outcome. My ~89% figure is the concentration among new early ballots that should have been required to produce a margin of that size given the registration composition. Wall Street Apes supplies a large pool of new registrations that could contribute to the absolute number of additional ballots. Together, the analyses describe a large Democratic advantage that started early and was unusually uniform.

🚔 A Warning from the DOJ to California Officials— Count These Noncitizen Ballots and Face Federal Charges: “On July 16, the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) made the California Secretary of State aware that there are likely numerous noncitizens registered to vote in the federal election in California. He then asked for her cooperation to ensure the accuracy of these findings and to prevent noncitizen votes from diluting citizen votes. The legal consequences for either facilitating or ignoring federal crimes are significant. An alien voting in a federal election is a federal crime—and knowingly facilitating such conduct is equally unlawful. Under 18 U.S.C. § 611(a), aliens are prohibited from voting in any election involving federal offices. This is also a state offense in California. See Cal. Elec. Code § 18560(a). And under 52 U.S.C. 20511(2)(B), knowingly violating that state statute in a federal election is also a federal offense. Further, under 18 U.S.C. § 2, anyone who aids, abets, counsels, induces, or procures the commission of a federal offense is equally liable. If persons knowingly tabulate ballots cast by individuals identified by federal agencies as noncitizens, they risk becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime. Any assertion that ballots must be counted simply because California’s registration system relies on self-attestation of citizenship does not relieve election officials of their obligations under federal law when they are on actual notice of noncitizen voting. Nor can state procedures supersede federal criminal statutes.”