Bledi

My 2026–27 Winter Forecast ❄️ This is a summary, a video will follow next week. Forecast Summary Discussion: This fall's El Niño is at record levels and a strong El Niño usually means a mild winter across the North. As an example, the 2024 nino was the warmest Northeast winter on record. This year I'm leaning against that warm consensus. The PDO is firmly negative (rare in El Ninos) and the QBO winds in the tropical stratosphere are close to the fall 1957 El Nino. The early season polar vortex is running slightly weak, and models forecast a displacement toward Hudson Bay around Halloween. Euro weeklies are also hinting at a ridge in eastern Gulf of Alaska/west Canada where warmer years had a trough at this point. I weight fall observations heavily. This initially could mean a colder late Nov into early Dec before vortex strengthens again causing mid-late Dec though Jan to be warm in east with typical strong nino conditions dominating. The key then comes down to if we get a mid to late winter stratospheric warming. Due to these current observations, I've moved off my initial thoughts of a very warm 1997/1982-led analog blend toward 1957–58, 1972–73, 1965–66 and 1969–70, keeping 1997–98 at a lower weight. Its bold, but that's the forecast. TEMPERATURES • December: near to slightly below normal in the East and South (Northeast about −0.7°F), milder in the northern Plains. • January: the mild month, about +2 to +3°F in the Northeast, as the vortex recovers and the Pacific jet takes over. • February: the core of winter. 4 of my 5 cold analogs had a major sudden stratospheric warming in Jan–Feb, including late January in 1958 and 1973. • Overall: near normal to slightly cold in the East, colder than normal in the South. SNOWFALL: • Above normal (125–150%+ ) from Texas and Oklahoma through Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina. • Near to above normal in interior New England. I have the I-95 corridor near normal (90–110%) • Below normal (50–75%) across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and 75–90% in the northern Rockies. • February is the wild card. Feb 1958 buried the Northeast, but most analog Feb were below normal there. My forecast maps are below. Image 1 is temps and snowfall, image 2 is monthly temp departures. Notice how warm Jan is and 2nd half of Dec can be similar.