Chief DCF manipulator, market investigator and fundamental chartist. ACCA, CISI. Dynamic asset allocation. Not financial advice.
etoro.com
Joined January 2016
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$STZ DCF VALUATION MODEL
Constellation Brands is down near 50%, its deepest drawdown since the Great Recession. In a market where genuine bargains are increasingly hard to find, this valuation is starting to look almost too cheap to ignore.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
* Explicit long-term average growth @ 2%
* Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2%
* Adj. EBITDA Margin improving slightly 37% -> 39%
WACC @ 7.0%.
* Adj. EBITDA exit multiple of 9.4
* Tax rate 15% - forward marginal stat rate
* The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales to Capital ratio = 0.46, linearly regressed to the Beverage (Alcoholic) average rate of 1.06 in year 10
Day 2. Interesting to hear eToro CEO & Founder, Yoni Assia, in conversation with SpaceXAI Lead Field Engineer, Nick Miller. Also looking forward for the Fireside conversation between
Goldman Sachs Managing Director, Jonathan Penkin, with eToro Global COO & Deputy CEO, Dr. Hedva Ber.
I am here for the first time, even though I have been part of PI program since 2019. It's great to catch with fellow teammates and Etoro team who clearly put a lot of efforts in organising this event.
@etoro continue to positively disrupt the way how people invest under @yoniassia leadership.
So greatful to be part of the journey!
Well done @etoroteam.
You lads know that when you look at stable growth or mature/declining company, share price is almost always a discounted future cash flows?
Therefore, reading a DCF is a must before you put your money at work.
And remember, we live in a matrix where capital is setting rules. If you want to survive or hopefully even buybacks some of your valuable time, you have to invest. There's no other way, unless you are already rich of course, and in that case your goal is preservation.
Still holding this one I hope, subs?
$WKL.NV VALUATION MODEL
I bought Wolters Kluwer on 25 Feb 2026 without running a DCF. Now, after finally putting the numbers through the model, I’m glad I trusted my judgment. Amid the software-stock wreckage, a 62% drawdown looks increasingly hard to justify.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
* Explicit average 5Y/5Y growth @ 5.4%/3.8%
* Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6%
* EBITDA Margin 33% -> 34.5%
* WACC @ 6.5%
* Adj. EBITDA exit multiple of 9.6
* Tax rate 24% - marginal stat rate
* The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales to Capital ratio = 0.98
Be careful here.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH has historically experienced several severe corrections, despite its strong long-term returns.
Peak Bottom Drawdown Full recovery
Jun 2000 Nov 2008 −85.9% Oct 2017
Dec 2021 Oct 2022 −45.3% Jul 2023
Jul 2024 Apr 2025 −35.7% Jul 2025
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 −33.6% Jun 2020
Mar 2018 Dec 2018 −27.0% Apr 2019
An investor buying near the June 2000 high had to wait approximately 17 years to recover their initial investment in nominal total-return terms.
For some companies it takes years, but Lockheed adjusted to intrinsic value in just 4 months! Easy money.
Everyone wants the next exciting growth stock. My $LMT Lockheed Martin's valuation asks a different question: what if a boring defense contractor is being mispriced?
Key assumptions:
* Explicit average 5Y/5Y growth @ 5%/4%
* Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.5%
* EBITDA margin gradual improvement from 12% in Y1 to 14.8% inY10
* WACC @ 7.2%
* Adj. EBITDA exit multiple of 12.7
* Tax rate 18%
* The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = 2.5
Как раз такие привычки и создают богатство. Хорошие привычки! Мало кто из наших стран понимает это, вокруг одни понты!
