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Joined September 2013
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Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
1/5
I have the opposite conclusion.
Fed cutting has been a two-year policy error that (hopefully) ends tomorrow with a hike (91% prob now).
This chart shows that since the Fed started cutting rates on Sept. 18, 2024, the 10-year yield is UP 1.30%
@AnnaEconomist @fundstrat
The odds of a serious Fed policy mistake are uncomfortably high and rising. Markets are all but certain the Fed will raise rates a quarter point at next week’s meeting, and are pricing in more to come. But the economy is already growing near potential (2% real GDP growth) and operating at full employment (unemployment a bit above 4%). Inflation is too high, to be sure, running above 3%. But much of that is the fallout from higher energy prices and tariffs, supply shocks that rate hikes can’t fix and that should fade on their own so long as inflation expectations stay anchored, as they have. If the Fed tightens to bring inflation down faster, it must push growth below potential, and that is hard to do without layoffs, rising unemployment, and igniting a self-reinforcing negative cycle. The challenge is even more complicated because AI-related investment appears to be powering the economy, while the non-AI economy is already struggling. To hit its inflation objective, the Fed either needs to rein in the AI boom or put even more pressure on the rest of the economy. Neither is a good outcome. Of course, it doesn’t have to choose either. It can wait.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Current AI custom prompt:
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Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Warren Buffett on DEATH and trying to get Charlie Munger to have a SEX CHANGE operation…
…and the fact women live longer than men.
lolol
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
REPORT: Walmart and Other U.S. Retailers Reportedly Notify Chinese Suppliers to Resume Shipments But Tariffs Cost Will be on U.S. Firms.
Several Chinese exporters said that major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, have informed some Chinese suppliers to resume shipments after communicating with the U.S. government, with the tariffs to be borne by the American buyers.
According to Hong Kong's Ming Pao, at the ongoing China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), multiple exporters mentioned that U.S. retail companies — including Walmart, home improvement retailer Home Depot, and Target — have notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments that had been suspended due to the tariff battle that began earlier this month.
The report said these U.S. retailers informed Chinese suppliers of the decision after meeting with President Trump at the White House on Monday
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
My friend, mentor, and Nobelist Milton Friedman on the trade deficit:
“The trade deficit is not a deficit in another sense. It’s a capital surplus.”
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
I asked @grok 's Deepersearch to help me find some CEO quotes, backed by references. It came back with 10, which seemed great. But all of them were fabricated, including the URLs. I'm not quite feeling the AGI rn
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
China Retaliates Against Tariffs By Putting Worse Fortunes Into Cookies buff.ly/DJotmtb
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Ronald Reagan vs. #tariffs : 1987 speech finds new relevance in 2025
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
What just happened?
At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a "90-day tariff pause."
At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China.
By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low.
At 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was "unaware" of Trump considering a 90-day pause.
At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect.
At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines "fake news."
By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior.
Never in history have we seen something like this.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
A couple of folks have crunched the numbers (Evercore ISI - their chart, below; @fcastofthemonth) and concluded that the U.S. weighted average tariff, with all Trump's new orders in effect, will be higher than under Smoot-Hawley.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Flexport's team was able to reverse engineer the formula the Administration used to generate the "reciprocal tariffs."
It's quite simple, they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country.
The chart below shows the predictions of this formula plotted against the actual new tariff rates.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
It's also important to understand that the tariff rates that foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made-up numbers. South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on U.S. exports. Nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff.
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Oh boy. The narrative that now that '#Trump has won, #tariffs will by definition push #inflation higher,' is hitting my time line. However, well-respected and objective research shows that this is not the case.
Get informed here: jeroenblokland.substack.com/…
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Saved this for later! @FatAlpha
youtu.be/sUD0Hkxi86Q?si=VL1O…
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
1/[Full thread] We are short Lasertec Corp (TSE:6920) $6920, one of the largest corporate frauds in Japanese history ($23B market cap) and easily the largest outright fraud in the world by average daily volume. 330 page presentation now live in English and Japanese at scorpioncapital.com:
Japan’s Most Actively Traded Stock Is A Colossal Fraud And Ticking Time Bomb, Reminiscent Of Olympus, Toshiba, And Other Infamous Accounting Scandals
Sophocles Sophocleous, CFA retweeted
Most important answer from this years Q&A with Buffett - watch the last 30 seconds especially – at Omaha, NE
