International Political Campaigns Expo

Every party leader is reading the same headline results this weekend. The ones who get ahead in 2029 will be those who look past the verdict to the evidence: who came back, who switched, who stayed home, and why. That is what a campaign diagnostic is for. It turns a result into a plan. These figures are preliminary: provisional @IECSouthAfrica results as at 09:30 on 8 November 2026, comparing the same voting stations in 2021 and 2026. They will change as counting finishes. Explore the live data, down to ward and voting-station level: missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… For campaign diagnostics: [email protected] Every diagnostic is only half the story because the other half is the #MissingVoter, which is every registered voter that stayed home and every eligible citizen that never registered at all. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Put it together and one headline number, −22%, turns out to be three different problems: → winning back lost voters in KwaZulu-Natal → defending a shrinking base in Gauteng → reaching new voters everywhere else Each needs its own strategy, message and budget. Treat them as one, and none of them gets fixed. The same holds for every party. Of the seven parties we track by name, only the @MYANC and @EFFSouthAfrica lost votes, but the parties that grew need a diagnosis just as much. Growth you can’t explain is growth you can’t repeat. Evidence: measured from @IECSouthAfrica results. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Outside its two problem provinces, the @EFFSouthAfrica largely held its voters. That sounds like good news, and it is only half the story. In every province the number of people voting grew faster than the @EFFSouthAfrica’s vote. Its best growth was 11%, in an election where votes cast rose by up to 39%. The base stayed loyal; the new voters went elsewhere. A loyal base holds the floor, but only new voters raise the ceiling. A campaign reading only its own numbers would call these provinces safe. A diagnosis shows they are where future growth is quietly being missed. Evidence: measured from @IECSouthAfrica results. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

In Gauteng, more people voted and fewer chose the @EFFSouthAfrica. Its vote fell by almost a third while votes cast rose by a third. The instinctive reading after an unfavorable result is “our people didn’t come out”. Here the data says the opposite: people came out, and went elsewhere. That is a retention and competition problem, not apathy. A turnout drive, the obvious fix, would be the wrong medicine. The real task is finding where those voters went and why. Without a diagnosis, a campaign treats the symptom it expects. With one, it treats the problem it has. Evidence: measured from @IECSouthAfrica results. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

In KwaZulu-Natal, the @EFFSouthAfrica lost about three of every four votes. It went from its second-largest base to its seventh. The collapse came as @MkhontoweSizwex arrived. It is tempting to conclude @EFFSouthAfrica voters simply moved to @MkhontoweSizwex. The data suggests that, but it does not prove it. Some may have switched; some may have stayed home. Why does the difference matter? Because winning back voters who switched and re-activating voters who stayed home are opposite strategies. This is exactly where a diagnosis matters to test the assumption ward by ward before spending a rand on it. Evidence: interpretation, consistent with the data, not proven by it. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

On the headline, the @EFFSouthAfrica lost 22% of its vote. That sounds like a national crisis that needs a national fix. The diagnosis says otherwise. 93% of the loss happened in just two provinces, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. Across the other seven, its vote barely moved. That changes the response entirely. A national overhaul would pour effort into places where the vote held, and still not fix the two places where it broke. A headline invites a big, general answer. A diagnosis demands a precise one. Evidence: measured from @IECSouthAfrica results. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

So how do you diagnose an election? In two steps. First, the data: read results down to ward level and find where voters are missing. That shows where support moved. Our @ResourceHub_HQ Missing Voter Tracker provides the data and granular analysis - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… Second, the people: go and ask them. Data can show where, but only voters can tell you why. Canvassing is a must. Done in that order, fieldwork stops being guesswork. Instead of spreading volunteers thinly across every ward, a campaign sends them where the vote actually moved. Here’s what the first step reveals. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Two parties can lose the same number of votes for completely different reasons. One lost voters to a rival. Another lost them to apathy. A third never reached the new voters who turned out this time. On a results table they look identical, but on the ground they need opposite responses: one persuades, one mobilises, one goes looking for people it has never spoken to. The real cost of skipping the diagnosis is one more lost election. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Our #MissingVoterTracker shows that at the same voting stations as 2021, 27% more people voted. In an electorate growing that fast, a party that “held steady” may have quietly fallen behind. That is why station-level data is key. Vote share tells you who’s ahead, but counting voters in the same places tells you where it was won and lost. #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Our @ResourceHub_HQ data team has been collating @IECSouthAfrica data via the Missing Voter Tracker and generating preliminary campaign diagnostics. Every party now knows where it landed, but very few might know how they got there: who turned up for them, who left, and who never came out at all. Get some answers by checking out the station-by-station data on our #MissingVoterTracker - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… This thread shares our team's preliminary campaign diagnostic for @EFFSouthAfrica 🧵 #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #PCRHCampaignDiagnostics

Our #MissingVoterTracker shows the story behind those numbers. At the same 3 912 Eastern Cape voting stations as in 2021: 🔹 About 192 000 more people voted. 🔹 Yet the @MYANC got 109 911 fewer votes. 🔹 The @Our_DA gained 71 158. 🔹 The @MYANC went from almost two in every three votes to fewer than half. And more registered voters stayed home (1.51 million) than voted (1.49 million). The hung councils are being shaped as much by the #MissingVoter who stayed home as by who voted - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… #LGE2026 #MissingVoter

#LGE2026: In all nine provinces, more South Africans voted than in 2021. In all nine, the ANC’s share of the vote fell. That is just one of the findings from our Missing Voter Tracker. The tracker compares what every party received at the same voting stations in 2021 and 2026, so growth and decline show up as real numbers of voters, not just percentages. What the provinces tell us so far: 📍 In Gauteng, the lead has flipped from the @MYANC to the @Our_DA. 📍 In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC has fallen to third, behind @MkhontoweSizwex and the @vote_ifp. 📍 In the Free State, the ANC’s lead over the DA has shrunk by 61%. 📍 In Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the North West, the ANC held its voters, but new parties took the growth. 📍 And 8.83 million registered voters stayed home. Every election tells two stories: who voted, and who stayed away. Our Executive Lead, Dr. @MilayoNdou, will unpack both on @Radio702, covering what the numbers reveal about each party’s campaign, and what the missing voter is telling us all. Explore the live tracker - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… [Provisional IEC data as at 8am, 6 November 2026.] #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #SouthAfrica #PCRH #ICPC

Every election tells two stories: who voted, and who stayed away. The results tell the first. The missing voter tells the second. So far, 8.83 million registered South Africans have stayed home in the 2026 local elections. Our @ResourceHub_HQ Missing Voter Tracker shows exactly where. By comparing the same voting stations in 2021 and 2026, the tracker reveals: → which parties grew and which shrank, in actual votes, not just percentages → where voters stayed home, down to individual wards → how 1.83 million more votes reshaped the contest, and why some parties still lost ground Catch our Political Campaign Watch Project Lead, @aaliyahvayez, on @CapeTalk at 10:30am today to unpack both stories: what the results say, and what the silence of the #missingvoter is telling every party. Explore the live tracker - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… #MissingVoter #LGE2026 #SouthAfrica #PCRH #ICPC

South Africans came back to the polls, and the ANC lost ground to the DA in every province. 📉📈 AS AT 8AM: Our #MissingVoterTracker compares each party’s votes at the same voting stations in 2021 and 2026. In Gauteng: the lead has flipped. The @MYANC was 71 606 votes ahead in 2021; the @Our_DA now leads by 242 196. In KwaZulu-Natal: ANC votes fell by 242 072, DA votes rose by 61 562. The ANC is now third, behind @MkhontoweSizwex and the @vote_ifp. More voters turned out. Fewer of them chose the ANC. Provisional figures. Check your province and ward - missing-voter-sa.politicalhu… #LGE2026 #MissingVoter