I bet on politics on prediction markets: $6k - $400k
Joined July 2025
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Padda retweeted
I will bet @NateSilver538 $25,000 today that I will outtrade his most advanced model over the entire 2028 Presidential primaries without using a single model of my own.
Padda retweeted
Israel election: -$6k. Wrong in a couple of places, but the bigger lesson was execution.
The tell: on election day Yashar spiked to ~80% on record turnout. The surge was mostly Arab voters, and they don't vote Yashar. My fair-value model said fade Yashar / buy Likud. I traded it, then ended up buying back at 68¢ an hour before the exits and was too busy to unwind. The exits flipped it to Likud.
Two more mistakes:
• Sold my Eisenkot No at 30–40¢ while my model had it worth ~50. I doubted my model against the 'sharks'.
• Pulled my 94¢ limit sells on 'Netanyahu out No' an hour before someone dumped Yes and briefly crashed it to 4/96.
One good trade: Likud 30–34 seats No. Channel 14's 31-seat exit poll + early counts got it overbought. Three mainstream exits had Likud at 24–25, so that No was close to a bond.
Vs Brazil: Israeli exit polls do 80% of the move in minutes, then a night-long count. Much harder to trade.
Lesson: election day needs my full attention — hard to do with a busy private life.
Padda retweeted
The issue with this is that every event is inherently 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn’t
So if you routinely are buying things at 60 cents, you’re overpaying and gonna lose
This quoted post is unavailable.
Padda retweeted
1) Thinking of starting a weekly series on trader deep dives. @LolakisPM always keeping me locked-in. SO lets see what makes them so locked-in.
Polymarket has now taken down the market on whether any of the Cornell Seven will be charged.
After the lawsuit dropped, plenty of people wondered if charges would follow, and Polymarket was about the only place to get an unbiased and accurate forecast on that.
I get why betting on something this grim feels wrong to people, but these markets have real social utility
Padda retweeted
This is a good thing
Traders read case files
Traders price likelihood that this leads to a criminal case
Society can get a decent probability on the case going anywhere
What’s the problem? It’s not like the market caused anyone to be raped ?
Nor was anyone in this case either lol
Padda retweeted
POLYMARKET COMMUNITY PODCAST EP 3
Wednesday oct 14, 2 pm eastern time.
Dont miss tomorrow show, well be interviewing the
victim of the 6 figure scams that happened last week.
well be discussing everything safety crypto and ledger current drama.
join polymarket official discord to ask live QnA during the show and enter the chance to win special prizes!!!.
Padda retweeted
A new scam group is draining wealthy crypto traders through Steam games.
Here's how it works:
It starts with someone you regularly talk to in Discord servers, sometimes for months. Someone you might consider a friend.
1/4
Padda retweeted
Wild ride, but I think this is purely speculation on Nobel Peace Prize rather than any actual information. The Nobel Committee has greatly tightened up security after last year. It shouldn't happen again. We'll see in 25 minutes.
While played up in media reporting, "insiders" are incredibly rare and have grown even rarer after regulatory crackdowns.
polymarket.com/event/nobel-p…
Bought about 18,000$ worth of no shares on Yulia Navalnaya at 95c a few days back, then I dumped them all at 60c today after seeing the sus price movement
Quickly realized there was no leak and the price move was a pump and dump scheme, so bought no again
Probably the most stressful day of trading I have ever experienced, but came out ok!
Padda retweeted
Look at him, thats my Qual.
Your what?
My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face.
I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants
I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument
But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists
I predict the trend accelerates
Letter from @AQRCapital below
Padda retweeted
starts,in less than 2hours , hosted by,guest @Impij25 and ice. giveaway coming for viewers! live QnA in polymarket main discord server!
xitter.gq/i/spaces/1qJVmyewebaGB
Padda retweeted
Big week for polymarket.🥳🥳🥳
EP02 of the official polycommunity podcast will be this
wednesday 4 pm eastern time.
The first ep was a banger and you can expect more
giveaways this week as long as you participate in
the live QnA on Pm official discord server.
This week guests: padda and Ice.
come ask questions!!!!
Polymarket has a market on whether any of the Cornell Seven get indicted
Given how misleading and emotionally charged the reporting is on this case it’s especially valuable to have prediction markets to give us an unbiased view
