In this house we believe:
-you can just do things
-competition is good
-it’s better to ask forgiveness than permission
-everything in moderation, including moderation
-there are no solutions, only tradeoffs
-clichés are clichés for a reason
-so too with the most replicable results in social science
How long before a lab sets up a what.cd bounty system for rare tokens
Bottomless Pit Supervisor, Esq. retweeted
Sometimes AI really does feel like magic inside a law firm.
The difference between having it and not reminds me of the difference between having an army of junior associates to leverage at Kirkland and having very few to leverage at Taft.
Lots of good junior associates made you feel like Superman under a yellow sun.
Bad junior associates or having very few were like Kryptonite.
Funny that AI has outpaced actual client work in keeping me in the office late at night.
I’ve just gotten addicted to the building.
But I suppose that if any of us were Superman, then we’d get addicted to charging up in the sunlight, too.
So like in the last week or so we’ve had a vulnerability in Chrome, a vulnerability in PHP, Indian certificates getting hacked, as well as some 400 Latin American banks. Earlier some journalists discovered a rogue Chinese agent network.
So my question is this: how many times do you need to see “Bin Laden Determined to Strike US” in a single week to start paying attention to “Al Qaeda”?
If you’re not forcing reboots for patches nightly these days, you’re probably doing something wrong
Replying to @JesterInABarrel
Broadcast message from root (Thu Oct 22 02:04:51 2026):
The system is going down for reboot NOW!
Just had my third irl meetup with a moot. Lotta fun, would totally recommend. Although I was pretty spoiled because the moot was @AlexanderPayton
Bonus @corbinmadisonr. Easy S-Tier twitter couple.
The book of Job is profoundly buddhist in a very interesting way. Makes me wonder if any cross pollination occurred, because Siddhartha Gautama predates job by ~100-300 years.
Sent an email to our director of information security because I hadn’t seen anything at all about this.
No response, but an hour or so later get notified the firm computers have to come down for critical updates tonight.
🤷🏼♂️
Replying to @an_average_bear @JesterInABarrel
I work in risk dept at a firm and took a sick day today for flu but my stomach was tight from the stress of everything else. Asked a coworker if people were worried about the hacks - nobody mentioned it today, not even a little fyi memo from IT.
The nuclear alchemy tech tree will potentially allow us to break Russia’s dominance on the platinum block catalyst metals. Nuclear alchemy is in fact inherently “weaponized,” from a global supply chain perspective.
Yes. And they’re about to meet this guy.
Replying to @Hound_Dog1956 @JesterInABarrel
That’s because law firms are woefully optimistic about the strength of their cybersecurity—like, on the level of a guy benching 225 and thinking he’s “pretty strong.”
There are a thousand reasons to shit on this. The fact that it exists notwithstanding that is one of my favorite things.
Replying to @MarathonFusion
In 2025, we published a bold proposal to use fusion reactors for gold production.
And now we’ve done it: Mercury transmuted into stable gold, using fusion neutrons, at 10x the record set by CERN in 2025.
We’ve reduced alchemy to a series of difficult but tractable engineering problems.
“Come, let us sit upon the ground and tell sad tales of the death of Blizzard North…”
Replying to @JesterInABarrel
Entirely predictable.
The video game industry is run by idiots, who miscalcuate IP brand value and ignore the underlying value of (real) talent.
Horrendous capital misallocation, and an incompetent investor base who couldn't find their ass from their dicks.
Bottomless Pit Supervisor, Esq. retweeted
Replying to @delong @David_E_Simon
Most AI revenue doesn't pass through Ramp - AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure (distributors for many companies); very big companies (Ramp prob covers 3% of US business spend; skewed heavily to larger tech firms and small business; underrepresenting medium and main st firms); no consumer revenues and no international customers (perhaps 30% of AI sales, excluding, China).
Ramp sees about $275bn of annual spending in all categories, US companies spend $21trn. So the sample is useful but small and misses out key types of customer and spend. Remember, we estimate GenAI globally is $160bn deduplicated per annum.
Ramp's spend index for Anthropic showed much faster growth than Anthropic actually grew between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 by my estimate, which is consistent with fast-moving digital firms but misses a slower wave of enterprise adoption... as a start.
Ramp's data is exceptionally useful, especially for OpenAI vs Ant market share. But there is possibly 90-97% of AI revenue that Ramp doesn't see (and for which it probably isn't very representative).
I'd love them to provide weightings or other tools to help us normalise against that missing spend. (Although we try to ourselves.)
This is going to seem quaint in hindsight in a couple months.
Two critical vulnerabilities have been identified in PHP, a widely used programming language that powers websites and web applications. These vulnerabilities (CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619) could allow malicious cyber actors to remotely execute code in PHP core, potentially compromising sensitive data and networks.
The FBI urges organizations to take the following steps now:
➡️ If an immediate update is not feasible it is recommended that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated.
➡️ Immediately update affected PHP installations following the guidance on php.net. Inventory where PHP runs in your environment, prioritizing internet-facing systems and vendor products that bundle PHP.
➡️ Monitor web servers for suspicious activity, including PHP processes unexpectedly launching command shells or downloading files. Ensure appropriate process-monitoring capabilities are in place to help identify potential exploitation.
➡️ If you find signs of compromise, isolate affected systems, preserve your web server and PHP logs, and report it to your local FBI field office or ic3.gov. Those reports help us identify the actors involved and warn other organizations before they become victims.
For the latest information, follow PHP’s announcement on php.net, CERT-EU Security Advisory 2026-018, and CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
Kinda crazy seeing it put together like this.
I wrote about the exponential curve of the last 30 months of AI development: oneusefulthing.org/p/30-mont…
And I asked Opus 5.5 to create the ultimate response to the test I use for all AI image generation models (make a picture of "an otter on a plane using wifi"), it made this video
price mechanism undefeated
🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it?
Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years.
The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons.
But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections).
For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future.
That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is.
This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses.
📄 Read the paper:
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26…
#Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS
If only my IT department realized this. Alas.


























