Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 (@JuliusProbst) header
Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 (@JuliusProbst) profile picture

Senior economist @Appcast/Stepstone. PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.

London, England
Joined November 2016
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Badenoch channelling @Frencheconomics on the rationing of labour, capital and energy
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Brutal revision to the OBR housebuilding forecast
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Too many in the West don't understand the *actual* root cause of this war: Russia fundamentally believes it is their God given right to rule over Eastern Europe & its people. It's not that complicated.
🚨 Putin plans to use Ukraine peace talks to push NATO back to its 1997 military posture According to The Telegraph, the Kremlin wants to force NATO to scale back its military presence in Europe to levels seen before Eastern European countries joined the Alliance. This could mean demanding the withdrawal of NATO forces from Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland. That is why Moscow is pushing for European countries to participate in negotiations over Ukraine. Diplomatic sources cited by The Telegraph say Putin wants to turn talks about ending the war into negotiations over the entire European security architecture. The issue may also have been discussed during Putin's three-hour meeting with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in St. Petersburg. However, European countries have previously rejected the Kremlin's demands to reduce NATO's military presence on its eastern flank.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Replying to @UKLabour
@UKLabour is still on the defensive on leasehold reform, for no reason whatsoever other than the lack of courage and resolve to get it done. We have heard these promises and assurances many times before without action ... tick tock. They promised to move "at pace"; is this it?
LABOUR IS BACKTRACKING It’s now a top-tier political issue, with @bbclaurak drawing a car-crash performance from @AngelaRayner. Rayner refused to give leaseholders a cast-iron guarantee that the cost of extending a lease or buying out the freehold will come down. Yet that was Labour’s position in opposition. Labour warned that governments could be “lobbied by vested interests” into setting enfranchisement rates “that will be punitive for leaseholders”. And @mtpennycook even tabled amendments to the legislation that became the 2024 Act, seeking to make premiums “as cheap as possible for leaseholders”. Yet for the past two and a half years, the government has been stalling on the commencement of these enfranchisement reforms, already on the statute book, claiming they will only come into force once it has made “fixes” to the 2024 Act through the forthcoming Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill. But Pennycook’s opposition amendments, which sought to establish a “guiding principle” of “reducing premiums for leaseholders to their lowest possible level”, are not being carried forward. Look at the small print of the government consultation on lease extension and freehold buy-out rates that neither Rayner nor Pennycook publicised in the media. It opened on 15 July without an awareness campaign and closed on Wednesday. Once these rates are picked by Ministers, they are locked in for 10 years: what leaseholders must pay. The policy will decide whether leasehold will live or die. Leaseholders were left out in the cold again, while the consultation’s obscure legal and technical jargon favoured freeholders and their lawyer and valuer lobbyists, who will have flooded it with responses. Even our supporters who are economists, have PhDs, or have backgrounds in finance and regulation said they had never encountered a more exclusionary or gamed government consultation in their lives. But buried in that consultation is Labour’s U-turn, in paragraph 14: “… it is not intended to use prescribed rates in and of themselves, as a means of further reducing premiums for leaseholders”. The enfranchisement rates policy is now merely to: “... reduce the potential for dispute and provide certainty for leaseholders, freeholders and professionals as to what to expect from this part of the enfranchisement process.” So much, then, for Labour’s manifesto promise to “act where the Conservatives have failed and finally bring the feudal leasehold system to an end”. No wonder Rayner and Pennycook are lashing out. Note the sass when Rayner invokes the Prime Minister, as if @andyburnham saying the right things about leasehold were enough to guarantee that this government will ensure a policy agenda repeatedly captured by vested interests finally favours leaseholders, not the property mafia. All the evidence of the past two and a half years, the excuses, foot-dragging and U-turns, points in the opposite direction. And Rayner acts as if journalists in a democracy need ask no further questions about this vitally important issue. We want to work with the Prime Minister and his Number 10 team to get these reforms right, but we’re being shut out. It doesn’t help when the PM’s housing minister is calling the government’s U-turn “misinformation”. We’ve run this campaign long enough to know that talking is not the same as doing. And leaseholders are rapidly running out of time. Ending leasehold is the test of the Burnham government, whether they want it to be or not.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Whole lot of Gen Z really went to the polls in 2024 just to cook their own futures.
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For some species, we have made some recovery! Humpback whales, for example, have dramatically recovered.
the reason moby-dick remains such a vital piece of human art is that it addresses what is probably one of humanity's greatest collective atrocities, the genocide of the whales, with an ambivalence it cannot itself fully articulate. melville is distraught, but he can't explain why
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“Lidl…argued Bath needed a budget supermarket in the east of the city and said the shop would create 40 jobs, reduce customer mileage by 29% and cut carbon emissions by 82 tonnes” Yet you give an “explanation” that contradicts all of that, with no supporting evidence
Replying to @clrjoannawright
I realise this needs more explanation
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Vivek Ramaswamy calls Medicare and Medicaid “mistakes.” Let me be clear: these programs are lifelines for millions of Ohioans. As governor, I will fight to protect Medicare and Medicaid and ensure Ohio families have access to the affordable care they need close to home.
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There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal U.S. Senator.
There is something deeply wrong with Talarico
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Utterly, utterly moronic.
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The first thing I did when this story came out yesterday is look at Kalshi and I saw… nothing. Which told me all I needed to know
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Price return isn't everything in property. A significant component of return is yield (be it actual or imputed rent) - if we include a relatively modest 4% net yield (not reinvested), it makes the returns from property a lot more meaningful.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
What do Larry Kudlow, Janet Yellen, Steve Mnuchin, @econJaredB & me have in common? We all believe the permitting reform bill is essential for America to build, grow, tackle climate change and maintain our technological lead. Probably the broadest letter I've ever signed.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
When you ask Claude to pick random numbers, you really get the impression that it was trained on The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Private Consumption Expenditure which is a excellent monthly indicator for US nominal spending growth is growing close to 10% annualised - it should be a 4%. Inflation will keep on picking up unless the Fed gets its act together. And it wont.
Strip out housing and energy, which Fed policy can’t really affect anyway, and CPI is running at about 0.13% month over month. The Fed would be foolish to hike into this.
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os democratas cuidadosamente escolhendo a unica pessoa q perderia pra um republicano no clima atual
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Kamala Harris is preparing to run for President again in 2028.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Our marginal tax calculator just exploded.
The cap would be £90,000 outside London. Analysis suggests that a teacher and a nurse living together would not be eligible for the Your First Home scheme thetimes.com/business/compan…
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Three thoughts: - I think it's more likely than not that she runs. - I think people are underrating her chances of winning the primary. - I really hope she chooses not to run.
WSJ: Vice President Kamala Harris has been laying the groundwork for a potential third presidential campaign. Her husband has privately told some people he would prefer she didn’t run and some donors have told her directly that a bid would be a longshot, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations. Harris has said she is undecided on whether to launch another run for the White House, but she has taken steps that could be a precursor to a presidential campaign, including speaking with major donors, hiring staff and traveling to battleground states to boost Democratic candidates in the November midterm elections.
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
The combination of pension pots being brought into scope for IHT from next April (Reeves) and this proposal from the Leader of the Opposition would have the impact of massively increasing the incentive to hold property wealth over more liquid and (historically) higher return financial assets. Not sure looking at the current breakdown of UK wealth (and comparing to the US) that is the direction policy from both main parties should be leaning. You either get very, very bullish on equity release, or conclude that end of life assets are going to be very illiquid and will amplify financial planning/ social care challenges.
“Nobody will ever pay inheritance tax on their family home,” promises Kemi Badenoch On top of that, couples will be able to leave an additional £1m tax free and there will also be no stamp duty when homes are bought, she adds 

 Follow live: bbc.in/4ATwqSu
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Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 retweeted
Latest data point in the Germanisation of the Euro defense landscape Half of Defense VC funding in Europe is for German startups
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