Matan Sheskin

Don’t worry. AI data centers form only the compute layer. You need a network layer and an application layer. A suitable justification for the current AI data center capex is not LLMs or code, but physically interconnected products (not just smartphones and personal computers) that form the commercial layer of the AI stack that you can’t get without networking. The network “hyperscalers” in the West will be $T, $TMUS, and $VZ. Their suppliers will be $NOK and $ERIC. We’ll also have $CSCO there, and $SPCX will contribute through satellite networking. Network capex will be crazy, much crazier than AI data centers, and it will drive people even crazier, but it will result in a much more sustainable product than AI data centers, since network investments are more durable and less affected by chip optimization (see the dot-com bubble for more). And yes, robots are coming, but they won’t be just humanoids or of humanoid form, but rather free-form.

I think $GOOGL is reinventing itself so that its advertising and search segments become less about servicing people and more about servicing AI agents. That’s why I think Google is the next-largest market-cap company in the world. Disclosure: I am invested in Google.

So, @markminervini blocked me. And what for? Because I gave him another angle to consider regarding systematic funds? The guy is a legend, and, unfortunately, he is going to make a lot of people lose a lot of money. Oh, and where have all the strong bears been when I called the top on $NVDA at around $238 (see attached post)? Or when I said to sell $MU after earnings? Or when I said to sell $AMD after earnings (after predicting they'll beat, which they did)? What about when I said $SPCX would pump just after insiders got their shares released in August 2026? What about when I called for a rate hike in September, even though the odds of a rate hike on Kalshi were less than 30% at the time? I've made mistakes too, for example, thinking there'll be another rate hike in October. Or that $MCD misses earnings. Or that shorting AMD when it broke through $300 is a good idea. And there are many more. But I improved, and I am improving. It's not about bulls vs. bears - it's about who can see the market better and play the game better - that's it. And when I talk about systematic funds, I do so because that's a new component of the board on which the game takes place. By the way, not knowing enough about systematic funds is also why I was wrong on AMD when it broke through $300. You either update yourself to the board (and the players), or you lose the game. The market does not care if you did it for 4 minutes or 40 years. Blocking people who get things right is a good way to lose money. Make your predictions public, fail spectacularly, admit it publicly, and then learn from it and from the people who got it right! And yes, challenge the masters! If they can't stand the heat or the push-back, and if they cannot defend their position, they're not masters anymore. And yes - they are going to lose a lot of people a lot of money. Good luck, everybody! xitter.gq/Matans8442/status/2107…

So, I have been calling for a reversal since Thursday night. It is underway. Here is the list of people who missed it: @gnoble79 @markminervini @kpak82 (this guy even blocked me when I told him “Let’s revisit this in a month”) This market is not the same as it was even 2 years ago. You are playing with and against algos and systematic funds. The one guy who actually timed the reversal perfectly is @michaeljburry. He took profits on time, but more importantly, he published a great article on systematic funds, showing that he is willing to learn and evolve with the market. You either evolve with the market, or the market gets the energy to evolve by eating you alive. But there is always a signal: 1: If you follow someone and he listens and evolves, use his takes as a confirmatory signal going into moves. 2: If you follow someone and he doesn’t listen or evolve, use his takes as a contradictory signal going into moves. Can we go down again? Sure, but with systematic funds buying again, and considering them being the premier market liquidity providers, systematic funds will eat shorts alive, not just in regular trading hours or in US markets, but in all trading hours, across South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China. Good luck!

You have no idea what you are talking about. The down move is over - systematic funds started buying. Good luck fighting them!

If you are short, and you like money, you should cover.

The short-selling ban in Taiwan is showing awful results - truly terrible, mega bearish.

Yes, Michelle Obama will be the Democratic presidential candidate for 2028. The only one with balls there.

Extremely bearish! South Korea had a short-selling ban from November 6, 2023, to March 31, 2025. And during that time, it was totally NOT the case that: 1: After the ban was enacted, Kospi went up 20% in 248 days (a little over 8 months). 2: After the ban was lifted, the Kospi went on one of the greatest bull runs in history, going up 278% in 445 days (a little over 14 months) Things to remember from this: 1: Interfering with "free" markets is always bad! Always! 2: Never do any due diligence. 3: The immediate and intuitive conclusion from something is usually the right one. Always. (To clarify: I am totally not cynical. This is extremely bearish - if you hate making money.)

Being bullish on the market is really just being bearish on people's ability to either recover from stupidity or stubbornness or want to wake up from a fantasy. Sometimes a lot of people wake up for a little bit, and they get really scared - you want to be short going into that. But most of the time, people prefer a fantasy, especially when they see a lot of fear around them and ignorance is extremely comforting - you want to be long going into that. Because most people don’t change, and prefer fantasies, especially with AI providing such a great fantasy, being long most of the time makes financial sense. You just want to make sure to pay attention when people are forced to wake up for longer - which usually happens when their dominant fantasy (for example, a shared fantasy like AI and robots doing all the work instead of, and for, people) is no longer that accessible.

Someone asked me what I saw when I predicted that beta would pump on Friday. I thought it would be better to answer it here. Here is what I saw: The markets in South Korea and Japan are weak, so I wanted to check if there’s any fuel for a turnaround. I use liquidity conditions and liquidity channels for that. The main liquidity channel I use is forex. Then I also check what happens in and between countries because countries are essentially the largest organizations, with the most liquidity, and a market lives on liquidity. I especially pay attention to how countries deal with problems (internally and externally) because pumping markets is a great way to affect the expectations of market participants and observers (think classical conditioning, only with money). Controlling these expectations can help a lot with dealing with problems. So: Forex: 1: USDKRW gaining strength: - Good for South Korea. - Whatever is good for South Korea is good for beta. 2: USDJPY gaining strength: - Good for liquidity. - USDJPY is positively correlated with $SVIX, with a bit of lag, and SVIX tells you how coiled the $VIX is. Politics (intra-country): 3: Japan announced the cancellation of energy subsidies: - Good for liquidity. - Japan spent a lot of money not just on energy subsidies but also on shorting oil for the US. They can now use it for other things, such as helping themselves and Korea. - The strength in USDKRW makes me think they are helping Korea first. I assume that help is needed because Japan is investing in a fleet of robots and in its 6G network for them (see Nokia’s previous earnings call). Robots need a lot of memory, and South Korea makes memory. So Japan has a lot of interest in memory and in South Korea not going under. Geopolitics (inter-country) 4: Vice President JD Vance blaming Israel after Republicans lost midterms: - This is exactly the type of behavior Arab countries (for example, Qatar) want to see more of in the US, especially after Democrats won the midterms, and especially when the Muslim Brotherhood gained much power in the US. - To make sure this behavior happens more, these countries have an interest in rewarding the US population the same way you reward a dog for good behavior (classical conditioning). So they will help pump the US stock market. - This won’t last long (problems should return in 3 months), but I believe it will help push markets to an ATH, I assume in a month. If anyone has any questions, let me know.

Nvidia will pump on this. Otherwise, the CEO will get some pushback for ducking a woman he shouldn’t have. And then, god forbid, people might start expecting powerful people to be accountable for ducking women they shouldn’t have. And accountability?! If accountability makes a comeback, there might be consequences for failing at things, and that would be terrible, especially for powerful people! Who wants that?? (Also, people might become more demanding towards the release of the Epstein list, which obviously does not exist) So how do powerful people make sure this does not cascade? They pump Nvidia, and then no one thinks there’s anything wrong, because - hey, the stock is up! Classical conditioning at its finest. The most valuable asset in the world today is not AI, but how ignorant people are willing to get if that means they can stay in their fantasy world and not start questioning what’s going on around them. So, to keep that asset intact, it is imperative to not give people anything that might wake them up. (By the way, no one guarantees that waking up is a good thing. Things might actually become much worse.)

Are you ready?

Shorts are f*****

I was wrong on the resumption of the US-Iran war, but November 5 was a very red day for markets.

How’s that going? Pretty good, no? Again, I highly recommend @harmonictrader

Told you. Arab money to the US. Japanese money to South Korea. It will last about 3 months, but we are now going higher - a lot higher.

lol

Another great account that has gone absolutely useless: @kpak82 Became too much of an ass and is now blocking people literally for telling him “let’s agree to disagree and revisit this in a month”. Said he can’t be “distracted” - with what? Revisiting something in a month? Crazy world. The worst thing you can do in the market today is block yourself from listening, because the smartest people in the world are joining the game and, by doing so, are actually creating a new game!!! The base assumption every day should be: “I know nothing. Let’s see if what I knew still holds”. Oh, and if someone gave you an important signal after you insisted it didn't matter and it turned out to be very important, you should shut up and listen. Do you want to win the game, or do you want to feel good and lose? Crazy.

It's going to get funny.