Joerg Mueller

$MSTR another thing I wanted to touch on again (longer post but worth it I think) Because of the social network/X effect, you will always feel the urge to buy the exact pico bottom. Some people, sometimes with a very large audience, will show extreme confidence when calling bottom dates or price targets. But the reality is that most will never buy the exact bottom themselves, whatever confidence or experience they show. The opposite is obviously true for calling tops. And remember, they won't be there to actually place your buy orders for you, and they won't compensate you for the opportunities you missed because of their thesis. That's again what I'm trying to show by being transparent and sharing my actual buy orders. Some probably laughed when I started buying $MSTR around $115. Yes, in hindsight, I was early. I had absolutely no idea where the exact pico bottom would be, or whether we've even seen it yet. But I had a plan. I was buying at what I considered an interesting macro level, and I was prepared to continue buying spot and lower my average if MSTR went further down. And the result? No, I didn't buy the exact bottom. I "failed" at it again, like most investors. My average cost is actually around 18% above the recent bottom. Yet, today, my position is already showing: 🔸 +59% unrealized P&L 🔸 ~+716% annualized XIRR, roughly 71 times the SP 500's historical average annualized return of ~10%. Of course, this XIRR annualizes only around three months of performance, not a full year. But the reality is that I could sell today with a +59% profit. At a constant 10% annual return, it would take roughly five years to achieve the same percentage gain through compounding. And that's precisely what I want to show with my transparency. Not some imaginary perfect entry, but the reality of investing with an actual plan. Just look at my previous $MSTR cycle in the first chart. I didn't buy the exact bottom, neither did I sell the exact top. Yet, I still managed to achieve a +1,289% realized profit and +184.5% XIRR. No perfect timing. Just an actual plan, execution and risk management. The second chart shows my current position. Same approach, and we will see the final results in few months/years. Moral of the story: Don't take anything for granted on here. Don't confuse extreme confidence and a large audience with certainty. Build your own plan, manage your risk, and don't burn yourself chasing some imaginary perfect entry or exit. And yes, there will be wrong theses and mistakes. I'll make some too, and I'll still be there to share mine. Make it real. Make it yours. You can probably bookmark this post for the next time someone makes you feel FOMO or greed with an extremely confident bottom or top call. Remember the psychological aspect. It's probably one of the hardest parts of investing.