Past/future founder, big weekly chart guy, author, love design & tech. Always learning
NY
Joined January 2018
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Last 2 cents:
When things felt difficult for the past 2 weeks but you saw indexes at highs, and you log onto X and have a bunch of people only sharing hindsight setups it makes you think something is wrong with you when in reality something was wrong with the market.
This happens over and over it’s the market cycle. If you think this type of distribution is going to disappear like nothing happened that is very very unlikely.
Today confirmed just how weak the market was and the weakest markets have the biggest bounces.
After today we are going to have very convincing bounces and they will suck you in before another day like today shows up.
There are going to be big bounces, and you’re going to scroll X and see a bunch of people sharing winning trades.
Dont underestimate how hard it is to resist that. Don’t take this action lightly and on the next bounce think it’s time to make $ back and let your guard down.
Most importantly do not believe what you see on X and think someone else has a secret and they are killing it… why can’t you?
Get rid of the make it back mentality because if you think you are in a hole now it will only get deeper.
Be safe…. have a plan… keep your guard up. Know what needs to happen before the market deserves your risk… it’s not going to be a bounce.
I’ll add my worthless 2 cents:
The way the market has been acting for the past few weeks is not healthy. There’s moments where the action gets good and it looks like it may be risk on but it doesn’t last long.
This type of action isn’t sustainable and is how the market acts near the end of uptrends.
I wouldn’t short the market here because we can keep grinding higher for longer than I can imagine… timing is very difficult… plus I’m a bull at heart I don’t like to go short anyway.
Forgot who said it but “the market can act irrational longer than you can remain solvent” or something.
Things can always change and we see a big improvement in the health of the market where it actually starts acting like it can sustain a big new trend but this action that we’ve experienced over the last month is nowhere near healthy.
I’m not complaining either. Been trading a long time…. this is just how market cycles work over and over again.
I would love to see risk on action that sticks and changes my opinion but I’m aware that how things have been acting is what you see near the ends of trends.
Mark Douglas said you don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money and it’s true.
Some guys I look up to feel this might turn into a bear market while others think we will make new highs soon. Traders with years of experience doing the same thing see something so different.
I love how we can look at the same market every day & interpret things so differently. It’s kind of amazing! It’s what makes a market a market.
Whichever direction the next 20% on the Nasdaq is I know they will be positioned properly. I will too. Even if right now we are thinking opposite directions.
There’s no right or wrong for guessing direction the only wrong is not adapting when things change and not managing risk
People are going to somehow blame Elon for their neocloud losses
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Nick Schmidt retweeted
Important concept @NickSchmidt posted about a while back, especially for new traders. You get bombarded with content focusing on setups when it's really mostly just risk management.
Also an important concept to grasp when building AI trading bots.
