Stoked about reality, interested in the future. Trading with @CarstenPredicts. Hari Seldon on Discord. Glass artist
Midwest USA
Joined June 2022
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How do we settle election markets? Based on a consensus of reporting or certification of results? Or by whoever ends up actually in office? Kalshi used to do certification of results (2024) but switched to consensus of reporting. Would hate to be a Lula bettor on Betfair!
This is pretty fun and really interesting to look at. Unsurprisingly, everyone really cares about California governor and Texas senate! For some reason Indiana cares more about SC than TX...wonder why
What is your state trading on?
Introducing Mapping the Midterms: an interactive, animated dashboard breaking down Kalshi activity by state.
Try it here: kalshi.com/research/trade-wa…
Jager retweeted
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
Jager retweeted
Someone made a site that tracks what people are talking about at public city council meetings across the US.
The only thing discussed more than data centers?
Pickleball courts.
I don't think the Talarico race odds are a Cloobeck situation (he bet on himself as a marketing stunt). Hard to tell if this is a real opinion or generational fud to keep driving volume for famously undesirable Paxton
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality.
It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67%
That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs.
People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right?
The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting.
Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
For reference, here is a Politico article about Cloobeck's betting. tinyurl.com/mt4cd3t9 My trading partner @CarstenPredicts has a good post showing how he was Cloobeck's counterparty for his stunt betting on himself
Great write-up by Nate on some manipulation he uncovered. @NathanMeininger deserves attention for this work! Very foolish and a comically bad cover-up attempt by the perpetrator. @robertjdenault have you seen this?
This was my biggest non-election politics position yet. Stoked to win big! Thank you Maria. Didn't have any shares on Katie Zacharia tho
Very holistic article on the current state of things taking in opinions and positions from all sides of the prediction market space!
NEW w/ @PatrickSvitek: We spoke to 20+ campaign operatives, election officials, traders and other insiders about how the 2026 midterms became "the first prediction market election," with over $750m in trading volume so far. Here's what we found... (1/5)🧵
Jager retweeted
> get introduced to someone new
> being told that they are high agency
> ask if they mean breaking the rules and soiling the commons or figure out a way to push the pareto and create positive sum
> she doesn't understand: "they're high agency sir"
> meet the person
> they're soiling the commons and externalizing internalities
Jager retweeted
Kalshi for Businesses is probably the most exciting thing happening at the company right now.
We're building out the org to service the increase demand in hedging. If you're good at relationship management and GTM, apply by replying and explaining why you're a good fit.
Navore is a small produce distributor that buys from family farms. Their whole business depends on good harvests.
Heat waves are their biggest threat.
When a stretch of extreme heat dries up the fields, the farmers lose their harvests, and Navore loses their revenue.
So Caroline, who founded Navore, came to us and asked if we could build markets around this exact risk. We listed them, and now she hedges every week. When the heat waves come, the trade payouts soften the hit.
Here's the part we love. She doesn't keep all of it. Some of what she wins goes straight back to the farmers who lost the crop.
Small businesses have been carrying weather risk alone forever. They shouldn't have to.
Jager retweeted
@mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara @Kalshi the removal of announcer mentions has been a big bummer. Any ETA on when they will be back? They were a lot of fun for a lot of people and enhanced sports viewing!