Citizens: Neoclouds "CoreWeave has the largest contracted platform and the most future capacity to reprice; Nebius already shows the rate reset in agreements signed at $20–$25 million/MW, with customers prepaying 50–60% of the associated capex; and IREN shows the progression from roughly $10 million/MW on its original Microsoft agreement to above $20 million on newer contracts." "We are more positive on the Neocloud business model in the near-to-intermediate term. The equities and credit have repriced around the capital required to deliver the build, but demand continues to exceed available supply, delivery remains back-end loaded, and the newest contracts are being signed at higher rates." $NBIS $IREN $CRWV

This is a fuller list of the limitations of supercomputer buildout. If anything is missing, however seemingly trivial, the compute doesn’t work.

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I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers

As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing: 1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however. 2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3). 3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening. All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one). This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them. 2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.