Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.
Salt Lake City, UT
Joined May 2022
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Introducing the new Polycarp Research Platform 📊
Find the best setups in the market with live dashboards of risk and opportunities, seasonal paths and technicals, and that isn't even the warm up. 👇
The trial is totally free, let me know what you think and hope you enjoy, cheers 🍿 (direct link in the comments)
$GOOG has gap fills at 303 and 287, both levels are potential support levels. RSI should open tomorrow at oversold levels along with being outside the bollingers, worse opportunities out there as we head in stronger seasonality
The Fed held but is the bond market signaling a policy error? @fxevolution @Globalflows @TheChartReport
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
$VKTX - Oral VK2735 is positioned to be the first oral GLP-1/GIP dual agonist on the market‼️
The SUNRISE oral Phase 3 program targets only ~1,120 patients across two trials (560 each). That is roughly a quarter of the ~4,700 Lilly enrolled in ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 for orforglipron. 🤔
The smaller program is likely possible because oral VK2735 is the same molecule as SC VK2735, so it can lean on the VANQUISH safety database (~5,500 patients).
This should let oral VK2735 reach market at a fraction of the incremental R&D cost of new-molecule SMOL single agonists like orforglipron.
Are we going to get the typical midterm year pattern?
Or the Trump Deluxe? @FortuneOptions @fxevolution
In 2018 Apple was up 29% at this same point. This year it is up 27%.
Is a repeat possible? $AAPL
Regardless, seasonal strength starts to end around this window
In 2018 the Fed “held” in the meeting following the “hike”
Was it bullish? $SPY
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Today, October 28 is the S&P 500’s second most bullish calendar day, averaging +0.49% with a 70.4% win rate since 1950.
But today is FOMC day and the S&P 500 has fallen on six straight decision days. It's Kevin Warsh vs the seasonality today.
ALT Heatmap of S&P 500 average daily returns by calendar date from 1950 to 2025. October 28 ranks as the second most bullish calendar day, averaging a 0.49% gain, behind November 24 at 0.52%.
Four portfolios. Going live November 1.
I’m launching four owner-managed model portfolios at Polycarp Research:
💎 Polycarp Growth — focused on growth opportunities.
🐂 Polycarp Core — focused on core holdings.
🛡️ Polycarp Premier — independently managed with a balanced core-and-growth mandate.
💊 Polycarp Biotech — focused on biotechnology and med device.
Each portfolio will have published holdings, dated allocation changes, and performance tracked against benchmarks using daily closing prices.
Follow the holdings. See the changes. Track the results.
Launching November 1, 2026. First trading session: November 2.
Research model portfolios. Not investment advice. Lock in early access now ⏰
❤️ 🍻
As far as "getting the most bang for your buck" , you will not find a subscription service with so much valuable & actionable information, but furthermore you won't find someone who works harder than @PolycarpFX to organize it all and make it extremely user friendly.
Can't say enough good things and I've tried several services with lots of disappointment previously.
Truly fantastic stuff here.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
FOMC tomorrow, the market has fallen the day of and before since the Warsh era started
The day after? A nice bounce. @DualityResearch @thesetupfactory
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Well, this is getting interesting.
$SMH, $IWM, mid caps and transports are all sitting around their 200-day moving averages.
That's quite a few important parts of the market testing the same long-term trend indicator at once.
Paul Tudor Jones once said, “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.”
I'm particularly interested in whether $IWM can reclaim its 200DMA here.
