Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.
Salt Lake City, UT
Joined May 2022
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Polycarp Market Research retweeted
$VKTX - Oral VK2735 is positioned to be the first oral GLP-1/GIP dual agonist on the market‼️
The SUNRISE oral Phase 3 program targets only ~1,120 patients across two trials (560 each). That is roughly a quarter of the ~4,700 Lilly enrolled in ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 for orforglipron. 🤔
The smaller program is likely possible because oral VK2735 is the same molecule as SC VK2735, so it can lean on the VANQUISH safety database (~5,500 patients).
This should let oral VK2735 reach market at a fraction of the incremental R&D cost of new-molecule SMOL single agonists like orforglipron.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Today, October 28 is the S&P 500’s second most bullish calendar day, averaging +0.49% with a 70.4% win rate since 1950.
But today is FOMC day and the S&P 500 has fallen on six straight decision days. It's Kevin Warsh vs the seasonality today.
ALT Heatmap of S&P 500 average daily returns by calendar date from 1950 to 2025. October 28 ranks as the second most bullish calendar day, averaging a 0.49% gain, behind November 24 at 0.52%.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Well, this is getting interesting.
$SMH, $IWM, mid caps and transports are all sitting around their 200-day moving averages.
That's quite a few important parts of the market testing the same long-term trend indicator at once.
Paul Tudor Jones once said, “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.”
I'm particularly interested in whether $IWM can reclaim its 200DMA here.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Earnings preview this week 🧵
Amazon reports on Thursday, AWS will be key as usual. $AMZN
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
For everyone excited about $TSLA don’t forget about the curse
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
First of many seasonal tailwinds for the S&P 500 begins tomorrow! The 8 trading day period, from 5 days before to 3 days after midterm elections, is incredibly bullish.
Since 1950, $SPX has gained in 18 of 19 instances, with a median return of +2.7%.
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights heatmap showing S&P 500 performance from 5 trading days before to 3 trading days after U.S. midterm elections since 1950. The S&P 500 posted positive returns in 18 of 19 instances (94.7%), with an average gain of 2.8% and a median gain of 2.7%. The table also displays historical returns, maximum losses, and drawdowns for each midterm election year.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Per Citadel, yesterday was the 7th largest call-buying sessions on record among retail (and the largest in 2 years since January of 2025)
Meanwhile institutional options activity was overwhelmingly defensive, with clients monetizing and rolling downside hedges, noting little appetite to buy the dip
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
S&P 500 sector valuations... Staples almost 4 multiples pricier than Tech
Health Care at a premium to I.T. too @factset
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Amazon withdraws plans for four data centers on the 122-acre former GWU Ashburn campus in Loudoun County after buying it for ~$427M
#MacroEdge
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
For the market voyeurs, here’s where the damage is being done. Some notable z-scores.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Crazy Semiconductor Volumes...
Tech Stocks Crashing?
What is happening to markets? 👇👇👇
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
$META: The complete breach of the lower Bollinger band suggests that most of the bearish move is in.
