Bonar Law of the Jungle

This is all wrong, though. Britain got into WWI for essentially three hard security reasons: The competition with Germany over naval dominance in the North Sea, the concomitant fear that German militarization of the Channel coast by seizing Belgium would allow a staging area for an invasion (always a “hard ‘no’”), and the reality that Britain (through its “military conversations” with France) was already engaged in Continental balance of power politics and in fact needed to be for the preceding two reasons. Those are all excellent reasons to get involved in a war, and yet the amazing thing is that there was such a debate in the British government about intervention at the time of the July Crisis that historians still dispute which, if any, of them truly forced Britain’s hand (leading, ironically, to this very dispute). Britain was the consummate reluctant warrior - and yet its back was to the wall. British statecraft in the early 20C is actually a model for how to manage an increasingly tight imperial security situation - if they couldn’t stay out, you have to wonder if anyone could. And, in fact, while there is always a pull back and forth in British strategy between the Continent and global empire/naval affairs, every hegemonic war since 1492 has seen British power either deployed to the Continent or (rarely, but it happens) Continental power deployed against Britain. Here are the data points: —The Italian Wars saw fighting over Calais (which England lost) as well as a French-supported (per the Auld Alliance) Scottish invasion of England (turned back at Flodden, Britain’s answer to Antietam) —The War of Dutch Independence included the War of the Armada; the follow-on 30 Years War manifested in Britain as the English Civil War (and yes - they’re related - affairs on the Continent feature in the 19 Propositions, and Puritan fear that Charles’ Arminianism and absolutism amounted to crypto-Catholicism is a standard feature in histories of it) —The Spanish Succession War and the preceding wars of Louis XIV saw an Anglo-Dutch alliance and, famously, Marlborough’s army deployed to the Continent —The Napoleonic Wars, of course, featured Wellington’s army in Spain and then at Waterloo The World Wars were just one more instance. And in fact this was well-understood by British leaders at the time and even by the British public. The “it was all for nothing” narrative is a (very) latecomer - it’s a recycling of German war angst (of the All Quiet On The Western Front variety, double-distilled by “nie wieder Krieg” after they got beaten the second time) via EU propaganda (have to marry your neighbor to avoid fighting them, you see). Britain still, to this day, doesn’t really buy it - the tone of Remembrance Day ceremonies tends to be solemn, but the dominant themes are gratitude and memory, not cynicism or disgust. As they should be.

I don't think you will long be able to describe a country that is looking to regulatorily align with the *european union* as world leading in any aspect of AI. Britain has missed the boat on sovereign frontier models but is not as far behind as Europe. London is at least second home to many American frontier companies. There will come a time, frankly I think the time is already upon us, where we need to pick a side, and Europe isn't even a choice. We are already living in a world where everything from supermarket fridges to government healthcare databases have the potential to be hacked, now remarkably easily utilising frontier AI systems. We are entering uncharted territory where every aspect of online security - from our banks to our data to our internet of things, now relies on access to American models to patch vulnerabilities before other models find them. Only America and to some extent China have the technology to defend against stuff like this. Europe isn't on the pitch and that means Britain needs to unequivocally join America's AI nuclear umbrella if it wants any semblance of security at all in this brave new world. What's remarkable for all the talk of 'AI safety' in Europe, there is zero urgency at all to develop anything powerful enough to genuinely provide safety for our entire online lives. Today everything is all insanely vulnerable to the people with the biggest models. Europe thinks 'AI safety' means regulating the industry out of existence in their corner of the world. That's like saying 'nuclear safety' is not developing nuclear weapons yourself, despite knowing that your advasaries are. 'AI safetyism' within the EU AI Act has made Europe *less safe*. For actual safety today, we need AI powerful enough to keep us safe.

It’s the 5th of November. So what do we think of that most infamous of plotters Guy Fawkes. While nearly half of Brits are neutral/no opinion on Fawkes among those who do there are partisan splits. Reform 2024 voters have the most positive net view, Tory voters the most negative

The hard truth is that government must do fewer things, and do them better. It is not there to solve all of life's problems. Labour and Reform are squabbling over who can be the most interventionist in the Poundland dispute. Getting involved in Poundland is the opposite of doing fewer things better. In a dynamic economy, thousands of businesses will be created every year, whilst others sadly fail. Although not a frequent shopper, I’ve always been a fan of Poundland. Mrs Griffith has been known to have to fish me out from wandering the aisles, marvelling at how some of the products are so much cheaper than elsewhere. Brands of my youth such as Our Price records, Woolworths and Oddbins are no more. Consumption patterns change, new technologies emerge but so long as there are entrepreneurs willing to take and back risks, new growth fills the places vacated by others. Poundland was founded in the 1990s. It will have taken a place left by other businesses, had that not been allowed it would never have existed in the first place. The government has a huge role to play in sustaining profitable businesses in the UK, but the bar should be set very high on piling into disputes once a business is already in trouble. Instead, the government should make it less expensive and risky to employ staff, lower business rates, tackle planning red tape, deliver cheaper energy and lock up prolific shop lifters. All of these would help our retailers. If there is ever a Poundland ‘post-mortem’, just like the rest of the High Street, I am sure these factors will feature prominently. If I were Chancellor, reducing those burdens, rather than grandstanding on social media, would be my focus. In this case, some are asking that the government ‘step in’. In reality, that means government deciding what rules apply to whom and telling businesses that politicians know better than them. This never goes well and that judgement is often clouded by political factors. If we enter a world in which politicians decide the future of businesses, we will find that businesses must put a ‘price’ on the risk of government sticking their fingers in everywhere. The cost of doing business goes up, and fewer people bother at all. We end up in a world where it’s who you know that matters, not what you know. Investors, who have a choice where to take their money, will demand a higher price to do business here - or stay away entirely. Every well-intentioned regulation or intervention has its unintended consequence. It sounds harsh, but not every problem has a government-shaped solution. And sometimes the most mature and courageous political position is to stick to those things which government can do to make. That decision won’t always be popular, but it will be based on the truth.

Catholics, reminder: You can free a soul from purgatory every day this week. From Nov 1–8, the Church grants a plenary indulgence, applicable to the souls in purgatory, each day you: 1. Visit a cemetery and pray for the dead (even silently) 2. Go to confession (within about 20 days before or after) 3. Receive Holy Communion 4. Pray for the Pope's intentions (an Our Father and Hail Mary is enough) 5. Be detached from all sin, even venial Today only (All Souls Day): you can also gain one by visiting a church and praying the Our Father and the Creed. One confession covers the whole week. Communion and the prayer for the Pope are needed for each day's indulgence. And if you're not fully detached from sin, you still gain a partial indulgence. So go anyway. Repost this to spread the word. The souls in purgatory need our help.

Nobody has ever offered me a single historical example of successful accelerationism The example I witnessed personally, the Sunnis boycotting the Iraqi elections in 05 was disastrous for them

Sometimes you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet. (And by "eggs" I mean "people," and by "a few" I mean "40 million or so", and by "break," I mean "cause to starve to death," and by "omelet" I mean "a shitty system that required Deng's market reforms to function").

I want people to like the weird stuff they like, but I'm continuously reminded that the optimal level of stigma is rarely zero

Britain is broke. And to fix it, we need to start growing again. That’s why Reform’s Economic Rescue Plan includes these 64 pro-growth measures I’d take if I were Chancellor: 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗮 1. Approve Rosebank 2. Restart oil and gas licensing 3. Legalise onshore exploration 4. Abolish the Energy Profits Levy 5. Restore maximum economic extraction as the North Sea regulator's objective 𝗥𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 6. Abolish the Emissions Trading Scheme 7. Halt the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 8. Repudiate AR7 contracts for difference and scrap AR8 9. Implement the Fingleton Review on nuclear in full 10. Automatically approve French and South Korean nuclear designs 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 11. Cut affordable housing requirements on brownfield sites 12. Permitted Development Right for brownfield housing 13. Repeal Biodiversity Net Gain 14. Exit the Aarhus Convention 15. Repeal and reform the Habitats Regulations, including Nutrient Neutrality 16. End the boiler ban 17. Legalise air conditioning to meet overheating rules 18. Remove mandatory EPC improvements 19. Revoke the Future Homes Standard 20. Repeal the Renters' Rights Act 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 21. Legislate approval for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick 22. Auction airport landing slots 23. End 'target-consistent' carbon pricing in project evaluation 24. Ban carbon emissions considerations in planning applications 25. Fast-track all water reservoirs as nationally significant projects 26. Make Development Consent Orders a true one-stop shop 27. Restrict judicial review of ministerial planning decisions 28. Scrap Net Zero construction rules 29. Scrap the social value test in procurement 30. Lift launch limits at SaxaVord Spaceport 31. Open completed sections of East-West Rail 𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 32. Review regulatory barriers to AI adoption 33. Permit on-site gas generation for data centres and industry 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 34. Cut Employer NI back to 13.8% 35. Introduce a migrant worker levy 36. Repeal the Employment Rights Act 37. Clarify that workplace rights don't require mandatory training courses 38. Let experienced tradesmen work on government contracts without CSCS qualifications 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 39. Review bank capital requirements to boost lending 40. Rule out Net Zero in financial regulators' remits 41. Repeal climate-related financial disclosure rules 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 42. Scrap airport 'surface access strategies' 43. Abolish the electric vehicle mandates 44. Apply domestic GB hours to all UK HGV trips 45. Ban Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods 46. Back the M4 Relief Road 47. Move a new car's first MOT to four years 48. Abolish the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation 𝗨𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗼𝗺𝘀 49. Replace GDPR with a New Zealand-style Privacy Act 50. Fully re-legalise Imperial units 51. Review all unchanged EU law 52. Automatically repeal remaining EU law in 5 years unless retained 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 53. Make quarterly Making Tax Digital reporting voluntary 54. Reduce legal obligations on SME Non-Executive Directors 55. Double permission-free event days from 28 to 56 56. Make pavement dining licences automatic and permanent 57. Let shops open until 10pm, except Sundays 58. Repeal board diversity and inclusion rules 59. Remove the Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate 60. Abolish the packaging tax 61. Scrap BBC and Channel 4 priority on streaming platforms 62. Remove the Public Sector Equality Duty 63. Five-year sunset on all QUANGOs 64. Five-year sunset clause on all new regulations And there are more to come! Britain’s full potential is waiting to be unleashed 🚀

I realise this needs more explanation

A stolen watch doesn’t become yours just because you pass it down to your children. So why apply a different rule to stolen labour, wealth and land? Reparations are about inherited benefit and inherited loss. Time doesn’t erase injustice.