Illustrative, assuming an 80% liquidation threshold (real ones vary by lender): Start at 30% LTV → BTC can fall 62.5% 40% → 50% 50% → 37.5% 60% → 25% 70% → 12.5% Higher starting LTV, thinner cushion. Fast.

"i’m just gonna close my eyes for 10 minutes while this candle closes..." 10 minutes later: • funding rate spiked • margin call received • room turned red • yield reset to zero Happy Saturday CT... we go again

@BashirJasper @HoneyB_BTC

The math is a spread: Fund target: ~12% gross Borrow cost: the swing variable Illustrative: SVB says BTC-backed loans generally run 7.5-16% APR. At 7.5%: ~4.5% before fees, inside the 2.5-5% range. At 16%: negative. PS: Not the actual rate. It’s the number to watch.

HoneyB targets 2 - 4% APY on Bitcoin without selling the BTC. Let’s underwrite it the way an allocator would: where does the yield come from, what does it cost, and what would I need to see? @HoneyB_BTC, a quick analysis 🧵

Hot take: most DeFi lending is conservative by necessity, not by choice If the gap between “breach detected” and “recovery complete” can't be controlled, you widen haircuts and cap leverage. The user pays for that uncertainty Arch’s bet is to control that gap. Now we watch.

Everyone says “Bitcoin yield.” It’s not one market. It’s four, with four different sources of return and four different ways to lose your money. Most of CT mixes them up. Let’s separate them 🧵

HoneyB just raised $5M at a $30M valuation. Most people will scroll past it as “another seed round.” They shouldn’t. This is a bet on the biggest idle asset in crypto 🧵🐝

you can literally use your @papertrade_xyz liquidation logs as a tax write-off and a dividend-generating portfolio asset at the exact same time losing trades mint $PAPER ➔ $PAPER stakers capture 50% of fees + 100% of LP surplus past $5M. exchange.papertrade.xyz/port…