15 years corporate data and analytics consulting. Chart trader. Commodities, options, divergences. Free journal, not financial advice.
Joined January 2026
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ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Lets break down crude oil right now.
Love me the 3h chart, especially when looking at something where I want to know a few weeks out what it might do.
1. Bullish divergence on the MACD histo and MACD signal lines vs price. Also bullish divergence on RSI vs price. This is telling us that even though price got smashed back down to form a double bottom...the selling pressure wasn't there. Buyers stepped in.
2. Blue circle shows us the false breakdown of the falling wedge. False breakdowns of falling wedges(see the AVAV and KTOS charts) are typically quite bullish.
3. The orange circle shows us the quick snap back from the false breakdown, into a break out.
4. The green circle shows us the retest of the breakout. The beauty of this breakout retest is that it's testing not only the wedge, but also the horizontal support, which goes back years. The longer a trendline has been in existence..the more support or resistance.
5. Volume...the initial flush post election was heavy. Volume was higher...since then...this second leg down has faded in volume. Again, sellers getting exhausted.
Ignore the headlines. They are from media that is owned by the very billionaires who want you to buy or sell at the wrong time. The people who only trade on headlines go broke in short order and are back at Mcdonalds servin fries in no time.
Instead look at where money goes. Look at what happened to $LMT going into elections... or heading into the Feb Iran escalation... Look at $XOM at the end of 2025... Money was flowing into the space before there was even an inkling of the war... By the time the headlines came out...money had shifted again.
I read headlines for entertainment. But I don't trade on them. The charts are where the money is made. Big money can't hide their moves. Insiders are constantly deploying capital to certain areas...you want to be mindful of where it's going.
Right now the charts suggest that weak hands have sold out of oil, while smart money has been layering in.
I'm patient. I didn't go short dated with anything so I'm not worried about $SM closing up this week.
If you look back at $SM previous earnings...it's the same playbook. Sells off the day of and a few days after, where it finds footing, and then a few weeks after earnings its higher. I'm expecting something similar this time around.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
$TLT
US10
Probably should have started with this... No one is watching it from what I can tell...
Oil, silver, tech...but not rates. Prevailing consensus seems to be that rates peaked.
..but TLT and the 10 YR are saying... "Not so fast"
🧵
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
New moon starts today.
Peace deals flooding the feeds.
Rates and dollar ready to bounce.
Silver sucking people in with seasonality charts.
Smaller war stocks look like they put in a false breakdown of a falling wedge.
Setup seems RIPE for a shakeout takeout here
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Shaking out weak hands.
A couple points before the charts:
1. Congress does not control war. Israel does. War will continue. I expect renewed strikes on the full moon.
2. Congress doesn't impact physical barrels. Have a blue wave did not rebuild any infrastructure.
Shorter term charts show the pain obviously. But this was somewhat expected. I said we'd get a correction of 5-10%. We got like 15% instead.
Red support line held beautifully. I didn't move that line, it was in place since before the last touch a few months ago...clearly it matters.
Longer term we have a bull flag on crude. Nothing move in a straight line. This flag will take us well into the hundreds of dollars a barrel.
Longer term $XOP chart shows a massive inverse head and shoulders.
Longer term $TAN chart with a symmetrical triangle that will break to the upside as higher energy strokes demand for alternatives.
And my bread and butter ..the silver/oil ratio chart...says that even if silver bottomed today....the most likely oil price is $250 in 2 years. $125 is a minimum price of silver stays at $50. $500 a barrel is 30% chance. All based on historical reversion cycles.
I remain bullish oil. I think people cutting longs here this week are gonna feel reeetarded in 3 weeks.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Nobody stacks four carriers in the Arabian Sea for the week of the new moon in order to not use them.
At 25-30 knots, that puts it in theatre by Nov 9 - right when the third existing carrier was set to rotate out.
They usually overlap which tells me this is prep for an escalation.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
All 4 are Lear plane crashes. One difference, is today's, where there appears to be ZERO WRECKAGE 🤷🏻♂️ ✌️
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Here is the situation. Montana Renewables (MRL), a subset of $CLMT that is not the main business, will grow to become the main business next year. In H1 2027, they are massively increasing production volumes.
With the current spot price, or futures price, MRL will print >250mil EBITDA all by itself each quarter!
Because of NOLs, they dont pay tax. In 2027, $CLMT will retire all debt.
In 2028 that will make it EV/EARNINGS = 3.0 OR LESS IF THE SHARE PRICE GOES FLAT
thats a genuine 3.0 p/e with no debt.
and that assumes all wars resolve tomorrow and 0 new refineries get hit.
If any new refineries get hit, say, Omsk in Russia takes a serious fucking by Ukraine, or Yanbu Luberef gets fucked by the houthis, then $CLMT goes iver $175 or over $250 respectively.
If both hit, it goes to $500.
Yanbu Luberef has missiles flying over it once a week. How long until the houthis realize it is a high value target? Without Yanbu Luberef, Saudi military vehicles cant be maintenanced.
And Russia, without Omsk, their manufacturing capacity is significantly cut by lack of industrial lubricants. And their vehicles have no motor oil.
No China cant help them. China wont fuck their manufacturing to help.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Since 1994, in hiking cycles, the Fed has only hiked rates one time ONCE.
The average hiking cycle is 8.5 hikes all time.
So if you think we are done with rate hikes, or that already stressed capital is going to be easier to come by or cheaper, you are going to be very disappointed.
Remember….. “numbers don’t lie, people do.”
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Respectfully... TIME is just as important as RSI or MACD when it comes to silver corrections.
You also have to check against the silver/oil ratio.
Silver/oil has never, ever, bottomed at .48:1. 0% of the time.. In fact, if you look closely you'll find that .48:1 is a lot closer to the PEAKs of most silver/oil reversion cycles...
.37:1 is the highest trough I can find.
.2:1 is something like 60% of the time.
.1:1 happens almost 30% of the time.
Rates will need to keep going higher due to oils run.
Silver needs more time and for bulls to throw in the towel first.
I'd be VERY cautious about deploying capital to silver miners here.
Stacking physical...meh...I think we see lower prices and a lot more time.
2-3 years is the typical reversion cycle from peak to trough in the silver/oil ratio.
Typically oil runs 2-5x and silver falls over 50% during that 2-3 year stretch. Sometimes silver falls 60%, 70%, 80%+...
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
$MLP.v @MLPotash
Another $142k buy from RJ.
When a ~25% holder is still buying on market with millions of ITM warrants, I take note.
