Ex Hedge fund Quant. 10Y trading SPX. I build the models the desk wishes it had - dealer flow, gamma levels, automated signals. SPX customer positioning!
Joined February 2023
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QuantNug retweeted
Trump will lose the midterms, and then LIKLEY put the world in a fearful state. But funny enough, I bet w the dems in there, the market will likely buy heavily etc rather than give Trump his “doomsday” market scenario. No taco for this long is wild… He’s probably a huge bear.
QuantNug retweeted
🔴 US official tells Al Jazeera: Trump Ready to Ease Sanctions, Release Frozen Assets for Nuclear Progress
QuantNug retweeted
🔴 US Treasury to buy back up to $6B in longer-dated debt on Thursday; previously said buyback would be at least $4B.
QuantNug retweeted
IS IT OVER??
👎 Global bonds hitting record highs
👎 US 10Y over 5%
👎 30Y fixed mortgage 7.2%
👎 Oil over $100
👎 Diesel prices at record highs
👎 Ongoing war
👎 No one can afford anything
QuantNug retweeted
The S&P 500 has fallen under every single new Fed chair in their first 90 days.
Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting today.
The historical data goes back nearly a century across 12 Fed chairs. The average drawdown in the first three months of a new Fed chair is -12%.
The worst was Alan Greenspan at -33%. The best was Ben Bernanke at -2%.
Jerome Powell's first 90 days saw a -7% drawdown. Janet Yellen's saw -4%.
Not one single new Fed chair has avoided a drawdown in their first three months.
Warsh's 90-day clock starts today.
QuantNug retweeted
Today, the SEC approved a major FINRA rule change that eliminates the Pattern Day Trader (PDT) rule and replaces it with a new intraday margin system.
sec.gov/files/rules/sro/finr…
📷 What’s Being Removed
The $25,000 minimum account requirement for day traders
📷 What’s Replacing It
A new intraday margin framework that:
Measures risk in real time (or end-of-day) instead of counting trades
Requires traders to maintain enough equity based on actual exposure
Applies to all margin accounts, not just day traders
📷 How the New System Works
Firms monitor your account for intraday margin deficits (when risk exceeds equity)
📷 Implementation Timeline
Rule is approved now (April 2026)
FINRA will:
Announce an official start date
New rules go live ~45 days after that notice
Firms can phase in over up to 18 months
📷 Key Takeaway
The market is shifting from “how often you trade” to “how much risk you take.”
This is a huge structural change—it opens the door for more traders while still enforcing discipline through real-time risk management.
QuantNug retweeted
“But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the Strait of Hormuz is open and people are having a wonderful time!”
QuantNug retweeted
DON'T RUSH BUYING THE S&P 500 DIP, PIPER SANDLER SAYS
Piper Sandler urges caution after the recent rebound, warning the market remains fragile despite the bounce.
Analyst Craig Johnson notes weak conviction, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still below their 50-day moving averages—leaving room for another pullback. The rally has also lacked follow-through, with indexes giving back much of their gains.
The firm advises using this rebound to trim weaker Tech and Consumer Discretionary positions rather than aggressively buying.
While the market still favors selective dip-buying, momentum is cooling and breadth is weakening, reinforcing a patient approach. Energy stands out as a relative strength, supported by rising oil prices.
Oversold conditions in some large-cap stocks could drive a short-term bounce, but Piper Sandler cautions against overcommitting to low-quality rallies.
