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Seeing 49.6 - 39 as of ~ 9pm ET
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Replying to @MonolithMediaCo
the race has tighted back in Hinson's favor; last 3 polls were +3/+2 for Hinson; prior 3 were +1-+3 for Turek, and the earliest two, from end of sep/early oct, are +2 for Hinson.
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RealClearPolling retweeted
polls have mcps now! check out @RCPolling's MCP - can just ask my agent who’s gonna win the midterms ? 🤯 realclearpolling.com/ rcp 🤝 taza
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For a candidate who is running explicitly on a promise to “unrig the system” (in her X candidate bio) to get accused in the New York Times, with text messages to back it up, of literally trying to game Alaska’s unique RCV system after denying that charge repeatedly (and still denying it) really is a problem. pollvault.substack.com/p/why…
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Replying to @EggerDC
we got you:
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Replying to @SeanTrende
@SeanTrende level-sets the senate: over the past two decades, "it has been extremely rare for a party to win elections in seats where the PVI is R/D+6 or greater." pollvault.substack.com/p/lev…
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One Week Out: 2026 Kansas Senate Race 🔴Roger Marshall: 46.0% 🔵Adam Hamilton: 45.7% 🔴Net: Marshall + 0.3 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 28, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Alaska Senate Race 🔵Mary Peltola: 49.4% 🔴Dan Sullivan: 48.2% 🔵Net: Peltola + 1.2 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 28, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Iowa Senate Race 🔴Ashley Hinson: 46.1% 🔵Josh Turek: 45.5% 🔴Net: Hinson + 0.6 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 28, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Maine Senate Race 🔵Troy Jackson: 48.7% 🔴Susan Collins: 47.5% 🔵Net: Jackson + 1.2 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 28, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Michigan Senate Race 🔵Abdul El-Sayed: 48.1% 🔴Mike Rogers: 45.6% 🔵Net: El-Sayed + 2.5 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
One Week Out: 2026 Ohio Senate Special Election 🔵Sherrod Brown: 48.2% 🔴Jon Husted: 44.9% 🔵Net: Brown + 3.3 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 South Carolina Senate Race 🔴Darline Graham-Nordone: 48.0% 🔵Annie Andrews: 45.3% 🔴Net: Graham-Nordone + 2.7 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
One Week Out: 2026 Ohio Senate Special Election 🔵Sherrod Brown: 48.2% 🔴Jon Husted: 44.9% 🔵Net: Brown + 3.3 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Ohio Senate Special Election 🔵Sherrod Brown: 48.2% 🔴Jon Husted: 44.9% 🔵Net: Brown + 3.3 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
One Week Out: 2026 Texas Senate Race 🔵James Talarico: 48.5% 🔴Ken Paxton: 46.7% 🔵Net: Talarico + 1.8 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
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One Week Out: 2026 Texas Senate Race 🔵James Talarico: 48.5% 🔴Ken Paxton: 46.7% 🔵Net: Talarico + 1.8 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 27, 2026
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2026 Texas Senate Race: Talarico Leads Paxton 🔵James Talarico: 48.3% 🔴Ken Paxton: 46.8% 🔵Net: Talarico +1.5 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 22, 2026
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Democrats lead in 6/8 RealClearPolitics Senate Toss-Up States 🔵Minnesota: Flanagan +3.2 🔵Ohio: Brown +2.4 🔵Texas: Talarico +2.2 🔵Michigan: El-Sayed +2.0 🔵Maine: Jackson +1.6 🔵Alaska: Peltola +1.2 🔴Iowa: Hinson +0.1 🔴Kansas: Marshall +0.3 October 21, 2026
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TODAY at 2 PM ET: @SeanTrende hosts a live Zoom briefing for Poll Vault paid subscribers on the 2026 House map. He’ll cover how past midterm waves played out, what that means for 2026, and new polling in several House races, with Q&A at the end. pollvault.substack.com/p/pai…
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2026 Minnesota Senate Election 🔵Peggy Flanagan: 46.4% 🔴Michele Tafoya: 43.6% 🔵Net: Flanagan +2.8 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 20, 2026
2026 Kansas Senate Election 🔴Roger Marshall: 46% 🔵Adam Hamilton: 45.7% 🔴Net: Marshall +0.3 RealClearPolitics Polling Average | October 20, 2026
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