Robert J. Sutherland

Legendary musician Bob Dylan had a private meeting with Pope Leo at the Vatican ahead of his concert in Rome. The first American pontiff is a noted fan of Dylan's music, and quoted his anti-nukes protest song, “Go Away Bomb,” in a preface of his book released in July.

True

曾用2700万美元一个月狂赚26亿美元、创下100倍神话的华尔街传奇大佬比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman），前两天在CNBC放话：他手里有两只股票还能再涨10倍，是整个美股赔率最不对称的投资。 说的就是房利美（FNMA）和房地美（FMCC）。 很多人以为他是看特朗普上台才跑出来蹭热度，但去查美国证监会的13D档案，这笔仓位他已经死拿了13年： 2013年10月，他从1.54美元开始扫货，砸了4亿美元把两家公司买满近10%，房利美均价2.29美元，房地美均价2.14美元。 买进去就是十年寒冬。 2021年最高法院判股东败诉，单日暴跌32%；2022年底最低跌到0.35美元，账面浮亏85%。但他一股没卖，硬扛到今天。 他为什么死磕这两家公司？因为背后有一本极荒诞的账： 08年次贷危机两房被政府接管，财政部前后注资1914亿美元救命，拿走10%优先股和79.9%的普通股认股权证。 结果2012年两房恢复大赚后，政府突然修改协议搞“净值清扫”，把两房所有利润100%全部上交，且不算还本金。 到现在，两房累计上交了3010亿美元，比借的钱多还了一千多亿，但账面上反而还欠财政部3000多亿美元。 阿克曼赌的翻盘方案只有三步： 1. 财政部认账，承认已交的3010亿算还清优先股； 2. 政府行使认股权证，拿走79.9%普通股； 3. 直接让两房重返纽交所挂牌。 按他测算，这样政府能再赚3000亿美元，普通股每股能值45到50美元——对比现价4.21美元，正好是10倍。 但按4.21美元的现价倒推，市场给的成功概率其实只有7%左右。卡脖子的主要是三点： 一是财政部如果不肯注销那3000多亿优先股、而是直接债转股，老股东会被稀释殆尽； 二是一旦私有化削弱了政府兜底预期，债券买家要求更高利息，就会推高全美房贷利率，这是谁都不敢碰的政治红线； 三是必须在特朗普任期结束前完成，而下个月就是中期选举。 2块多的成本拿了13年，年化还不到5%。这到底是十倍黄金底，还是一张完全看政客脸色的期权？做了个7分钟的视频，把当年的建仓档案和这笔账完整理了一遍。

I don’t care about the NBA at all but I will watch Charles Barkley every time he crosses my feed.

Judge orders fishing influencer to erase social media pics after he illegally nets great white trib.al/zF386AR

Some thoughts on Fannie $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC

Elon Musk often says: "Patents are for the weak." Why does he say that? In 2014, Tesla opened up all its patents. Anyone could use them. Everyone thought it was a PR stunt. It was actually a declaration of war. Elon's point was that patents mostly serve to slow down progress, protect the positions of giant corporations, and make lawyers rich. Not to innovate. His logic is simple: if your competitive advantage lives inside a legal document, you're already dead. The only real moat is your speed of innovation. If you move faster than everyone else, you don't need patents. If you need patents to survive, it means you've stopped moving fast enough. The strong build. The weak file. And AI is about to make that sentence true for the entire economy. Take biotech. For 50 years, starting a biotech company meant a PhD, ten years in a lab, access to closely guarded knowledge, millions before your first proof of concept, and a network in the right academic and regulatory circles. Knowledge was scarce, access was scarce, and that scarcity was worth billions. That scarcity is dying. I genuinely believe we're entering a world where anyone will be able to start a biotech company. A 19-year-old with AI agents will be able to explore molecular spaces that entire labs used to spend years mapping. Trade secrets, credential rents, access rents, positional rents: all of it is about to blow up. And look at what's already happening. Some of the first calls to "urgently regulate AI agents" are coming from established biotech players. Coincidence? When your business model depends on scarce knowledge and knowledge becomes free, you're left with only two weapons: the patent and the regulator. The two weapons of the weak. Here's what's coming. A wave of panic. Dozens of labs and incumbents retreating behind their patents, filing lawsuits, and above all pouring money into regulatory capture. They won't try to build better. They'll try to make it illegal for anyone else to build. Because the truth is, a lot of people in business were never strong. They were protected. They never won on product, on innovation, on speed of execution. They won because the market was locked. Because attacking their industry required hundreds of millions of dollars, years of approvals, and armies of lawyers. The wall was never their talent. The wall was regulation. And when the wall comes down, we find out who actually knew how to build. This isn't just biotech. Banking. Insurance. Law. Healthcare. Energy. Hardware. Education. Defense. Almost every industry where incumbents were sleeping behind barriers to entry is about to get hit by thousands of founders able to attack their business from every angle at once. With teams of 5 people and an army of agents. Everyone gets to play now. My conviction, and I'll say it plainly: a huge chunk of the S&P 500 could be completely flushed in the next 5 years. Not because those companies will make mistakes. Because their competitive advantage was never real. It was built on how hard it was to get in, and that difficulty is disappearing. The weak will cry danger. They'll talk about safety, risk, disaster. Sometimes they'll be right on a specific point. But most of the time, what they're protecting isn't the public. It's their rent. What's coming isn't a collapse. It's a renaissance. The biggest explosion of value creation in history, driven by people who were always told they weren't allowed to play. Patents are for the weak. And the weak are about to have a very bad decade.