Christian. Dad. Grampa. Explorer. Trail angel along the Appalachian Trail. (https://xitter.gq/t.co/NeUqup6yXE) Je suis sans peur.
Northeast GA
Joined July 2008
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Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
ウォーレン・バフェット「株価が50％暴落しても慌てる必要はない」
投資家「株価が50％も下がったらどうすればいいんですか？」
バフェット「まず、株というものを理解する必要がある」
投資家「どういうことですか？」
バフェット「株を買うなら、50％以上下落する可能性を覚悟しなければならない」
投資家「でも資産が半分になるんですよ？」
バフェット「そうだね」
投資家「普通は怖くなって売りたくなりませんか？」
バフェット「実際、バークシャーの株価も過去に3回、50％ほど下落したことがある」
投資家「えっ、バフェットの会社でも？」
バフェット「そうだよ」
投資家「そのとき会社の経営は大丈夫だったんですか？」
バフェット「会社そのものには何の問題もなかった」
投資家「じゃあ、なぜ株価が暴落したんですか？」
バフェット「株価と企業の価値は、いつも同じように動くわけではないからね」
投資家「それでも暴落は怖いです」
バフェット「だから借金をして株を買うべきではないんだ」
投資家「なぜですか？」
バフェット「株価が下がったとき、耐えられなくなるからだ」
投資家「では、いつ買えばいいんですか？」
バフェット「底値を正確に当てることはできない。誰にもね」
投資家「じゃあ今日買うのが正解かもわからない？」
バフェット「もちろんだ」
投資家「それでも投資するんですか？」
バフェット「20年、30年という長い目で考えているからね」
これ、投資をする人なら一度は考えておきたい話。
もちろん、どんな株でも持ち続ければいいという話ではない。
企業の業績や将来性が悪化しているなら、売却を考える必要もある。
ただ、株価が下がったという理由だけで、慌てて手放してしまう人は少なくない。
投資で本当に難しいのは、底値で買うことでも、天井で売ることでもない。
自分が信じて投資した企業を、相場が荒れているときにも冷静に評価できるかどうか。
暴落したときにこそ、投資家としての姿勢が問われるのだと思う
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Disappointed Christian Republicans Briefly Consider Placing Trust In God Again buff.ly/Hzt6Yk4
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Ukraine knocks out 15 Russian oil refineries, causing $23.2 billion in damage: officials trib.al/427QRnk
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Marc Andreessen revealed how Harvard Business School was built on a broken 1941 theory, and how it's now collapsing...
Andreessen co-founded Netscape in 1994 and a16z in 2009.
He has sat on Meta's board since 2008.
He has spent 30 years backing founders and watching managerial CEOs lose to them.
The pattern traces back to one book: James Burnham's The Machiavellians (1941).
Burnham argued every great company had been founder-run.
Henry Ford ran Ford. Bob Noyce ran Intel.
Today, Elon Musk runs Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink.
Then, he said, something broke.
Between the 1880s and the 1920s, a new philosophy replaced the founder. It was called managerialism.
The professional manager would now hold a portable skill, usable across any business.
The consequences were:
- Harvard Business School
- Stanford Business School
- Management as a universal skill
- The 1970s conglomerate
"That assumes the managers are going to do a good job," Andreessen says.
For 30 years, they haven't.
Managers can run something static, he says. Soup is soup. A bank is a bank. A car is a car.
But when the industry changes, the manager freezes.
Look at SpaceX.
"Imagine being a professionally trained manager, trained at a top management school, working for a rocket launch company, competing with SpaceX."
Then Elon's rockets started landing on their butt.
"Your management skills ... what good are they at that point?"
Andreessen's conclusion:
"You're much more likely to build something important in the 21st century if you start with the founder and train them on management."
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
For those keeping track, at least 4 widely cited polling firms have been exposed for fabricating or manipulating polling data:
- Wedgewood polls
- Median Strategies
- PSI
- SoCal Strategies
These polls, and the surrounding comemntary/reporting, had real impacts on races.
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
This is an extremely bullish sentiment. Bill Ackman gave us an indication of the Trump administration's thinking. At this price level, these stocks are stupidly cheap quoting Ackman's post a while back.
After watching this interview, I am more convinced of the timeline I was thinking of, although now I find that timeline quite conservative in view of this information from Bill.
Initially I argued that Trump most likely will wait till we are close to the warrant expiration for him to release and relist $FNMA and $FMCC. This will minimize the political firestorm that will follow the release as he can argue he has no choice but to release otherwise the warrants will expire and that will deny American people hundreds of billions of dollars of windfall. I argued we may start to see movement in Q2 next year and full speed ahead in Q3/Q4.
However, I think given that Sep 2028 is so close to the presidential election, releasing the twins so close to that date may not be politically prudent. The ideal timeframe therefore for release is either Q4 2027 or Q1 2028, hence Bessent's statement of next year or the following year. Releasing the twins in Q2 2028 is cutting it too close. Ideally, the release needs to happen Q4 2027 but in case there are still open items, maybe Q1 2028 is still OK. You want to release the twins with reasonable time gap to the presidential election to allow for the political dust surrounding the release to settle while the nation moves on to other REAL pressing issues. (Democrats will try to lie and gaslight about how bad releasing the twins are, but the American people are smart to see through the lies.)
Given this release date timeframe, we should start seeing movement Q1 next year and quite possibly right after midterms as Bill Ackman suggested. You need at least a full year to prepare for releasing and relisting the twins.
Borrowing Bill Ackman's post a while back, at this pricing level, $FNMA and $FMCC are stupidly cheap.
$FNMA $FMCC
🔥🔥🔥
@BillAckman with epically bullish commentary on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac this A.M.
All the bases were beautifully covered. Thank you once again for your tireless advocacy, Mr. Ackman!
No chance DJT leaves F2 up for grabs at the risk of a democratic administration potentially regaining control.
Shout out to @CaliRefugee1 for continually banging that drum!
Not if...but when.
Tick, tock.
GLTA.
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Georgia inmates used fake warrants to swindle victims out of $464K wsbtv.com/news/georgia/georg…
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
LSU paid over a hundred million dollars to get rid of Brian Kelly, hire Lane Kiffin, and assemble this roster. Only to have a worse record now than it did last year through six games. Penn State spent 50 million to buy out James Franklin last season for losing to Northwestern and starting 3-3, only to hire a coach who lost even worse to Northwestern and also started this season 3-3. Michigan has committed $43 million to Kyle Whittingham and Jason Beck, and $40 million to this year's roster, only to have the exact same record it had last year at this time with Sherrone Moore and an even worse offense.
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
The Atlanta Braves got 19 outs from a former 7-Eleven employee and a 21 year old rookie to beat the billion dollar Dodgers.
Baseball is a beautiful sport.
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
“This does not look like Jesus in the Gospels.”
Our @DashaBurns asked Senate candidate and pastor Adam Hamilton whether he thinks Donald Trump is a Christian.
🎧 The Conversation: politi.co/4yrhPfg
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Mom Takes Kid To Doctor’s Office To Pick Up Twelve New Diseases buff.ly/NMLXgrn
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Women Honor Gloria Steinem By Leaving Kids At Daycare And Working 9 Hours At Jobs They Hate buff.ly/bSbPYte
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Nation’s Murderers Excited To Learn Killing Legal If You Say You Were Sad buff.ly/Kiwkui2
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
'Let's Set Aside Distractions,' Says Worship Leader Surrounded By Lasers And Fog buff.ly/gkKx19b
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Progressives Across Nation Locked Out Of Accounts After CAPTCHA Asks 'Select All Squares That Contain A Woman' buff.ly/wrCoVgy
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Unlucky: 6th Grader Flunks Geography After Trump Renames Everything In Middle Of Exam buff.ly/b6vIR66
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
Elon Musk was asked how he handles employees who disagree with him publicly.
His answer contradicts every leadership book written in the last 30 years.
"I'd rather have someone who argues with me and is right than someone who agrees with me and is wrong."
The room expected the diplomatic answer. That he values diverse perspectives. That healthy debate makes the team stronger. The standard CEO answer about psychological safety.
He went further. He said the most dangerous person in any company is the one who agrees with you to protect their job. Because that person will let you drive the company off a cliff rather than risk being fired for telling you the cliff is there. The yes-man isn't loyal. He's selfish. He's trading the company's survival for his own comfort.
He said SpaceX has a rule. If an engineer sees a problem and doesn't speak up, and the problem later causes a failure, the silence is treated as more serious than the mistake itself. The person who made the error was trying. The person who watched the error and said nothing was protecting themselves at the cost of the mission.
Think about what that inverts. In most companies, the person who stays quiet and avoids conflict is rewarded with job security. At SpaceX, silence is the fireable offense and disagreement is the job requirement.
Most leaders say they want honesty. Then they punish the first person who delivers it. He built a system where dishonesty through silence is the thing that gets punished. The culture didn't happen by accident. It was engineered to make agreement more dangerous than disagreement.
Robert J. Sutherland retweeted
They faced the same issues in Ancient Rome
Rome handed out free grain to 40,000 citizens in 73 BC. By 46 BC, Julius Caesar found 320,000 people lining up for their monthly ration. That eight-fold expansion happened in under three decades, and it shows you how welfare states actually grow.
No Roman senator stood up and announced a plan to addict a third of the city to government bread. It happened incrementally, through political competition. Each magistrate who wanted votes expanded eligibility. Each expansion normalized the next one. The citizen who once considered the dole shameful eventually expected it, then demanded it, then organized politically to protect it.
This is the core mechanism free market thinkers have identified across every era: once you create a transfer program, you create a constituency for that program. Recipients vote. Administrators build careers. Grain merchants who supply the state develop a stake in keeping the contracts flowing. The political economy locks in.
Caesar, to his credit, actually cut the rolls back to 150,000 through verification audits. It was one of his more economically coherent moves, though the Senate still murdered him. His successors quietly let the numbers climb again.
What did the dole require? Massive grain imports from Sicily, Sardinia, and Egypt, organized through state logistics at state expense, funded by taxation and conquest. When the conquest revenue dried up, the obligation remained. Rome had written a check against future military success, and future military success eventually failed to arrive.
The lesson is not complicated. Distribute a benefit and you distribute dependency. Distribute dependency and you distribute political power to whoever controls the distribution. The grain dole didn't weaken Rome overnight, but it made every subsequent reform politically impossible.
