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Semiconductor Bro

Seoul
Joined February 2024
Photo by Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ (@Semicon_player)Photo by Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ (@Semicon_player)Photo by Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ (@Semicon_player)Photo by Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ (@Semicon_player)
AI ์ง€์ถœ์ด ๋ฉˆ์ท„๋‹ค๊ณ , AI์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฉˆ์ถ˜ ๊ฒƒ์ผ๊นŒ. ์ตœ๊ทผ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์˜ AI ํ† ํฐ ์ง€์ถœ์ด ๋‘ ๋‹ฌ๊ฐ„ ์ •์ฒด๋๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ณด๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํˆฌ์ž ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง„ ๋งŒํผ, ๋งค์ถœ์ด ์ด๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ๋‹น์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์ด ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ AI ์ˆ˜์š” ์ „์ฒด์˜ ์ •์ฒด๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•ด์„ํ•  ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€์ถœ์€ โ€˜์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ร— ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉโ€™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ† ํฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ€๋ฉด ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ ๋Š˜์–ด๋„ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ™์€ ์ง€์ถœ๋กœ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋งค์ถœ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ํ™•์‚ฐ์€ ์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์†๋„๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์„ค๊ณ„ ํ˜„์žฅ์—์„œ ์ ‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์—๋Š” ๋ณ„๋„๋กœ ์ธ์‹ํ•  ๋งŒํผ ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ AI ๋น„์šฉ์ด, ๋‚ด๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ๋Š” ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์˜ API ํ˜ธ์ถœ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ๋˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ฒฝํ—˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ ์ „์ฒด ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๋‹จ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ AI๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ ์—…๋ฌด์— ๋“ค์–ด์˜ค๋ฉด์„œ ๊ธฐ์กด ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋ฃŒ์— ์—ฐ์‚ฐ ๋น„์šฉ์ด ๋”ํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์—…์šฉ AI๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์‹œ์ž‘๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๋ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋„์ž… ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋ณด๋‹ค ์—…๋ฌด์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊นŠ์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๋А๋ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง์›์ด ๊ฐ€๋” ์งˆ๋ฌธํ•˜๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ณ„์™€, ์„ค๊ณ„ยท์ฝ”๋”ฉยท๊ฒ€์ฆ ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ์—์ด์ „ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์—…ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋ฐ–์— ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด ๋ฌป๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋„ ๋ฐ”๋€๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€œAI์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋ฅผ ์“ฐ๋Š”๊ฐ€โ€์—์„œ โ€œ๊ทธ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ค„์˜€๊ณ , ๊ฐ™์€ ์ธ์›์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์„ ํ–ˆ๋Š”๊ฐ€โ€๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก  ํ† ํฐ์„ ๋งŽ์ด ์“ด๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฌผ์ด ์ข‹์•„์ง€๊ณ , ๊ฒ€์ฆ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ž‘์—…๊นŒ์ง€ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์ด๋น„์šฉ์ด ์ค„์–ด์•ผ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ ํ† ํฐ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ž์ฒด๋ณด๋‹ค, ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ถœ์„ ์ •๋‹นํ™”ํ•  ์—…๋ฌด ์„ฑ๊ณผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ํˆฌ์ž์—์„œ๋„ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ํ™•๋Œ€๋Š” ์—ฐ์‚ฐ๊ณผ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์„œ๋น„์Šค ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋‚ด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋ฉด ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์†๋„๋Š” ์กฐ์ •๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ํ™•์‚ฐ๊ณผ ํˆฌ์ž ์ˆ˜์ต์˜ ์‹คํ˜„ ์‚ฌ์ด์—๋Š” ์‹œ์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์ง€์ถœ ์ •์ฒด๋ฅผ ์„ฑ์žฅ์˜ ๋์œผ๋กœ ๋‹จ์ •ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋ณดํ•œ ์—ฌ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์—…๋ฌด ๋„์ž…์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€๊ณ , ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์œ ๋ฃŒ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋งค์ถœ์„ ํ‚ค์šฐ๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜, ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ค ์—…๋ฌด๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ์— ์ƒˆ๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ผ์˜ฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ retweeted
์Šค์ฝง ๋„ฌ์Šจ ํ‚ค์˜ฅ์‹œ์•„ ์˜์—…๋‹ด๋‹น ์ž„์›์€ ์• ํ”Œ๊ณผ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์—์„œ ๋А๋‚€ ๋ถ„๋…ธ๋ฅผ ์ฐธ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„ ๋‚จ๋ถ€ ์‚ฌ๋ง‰์—์„œ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์•„์ดํŒŸ์„ ์†Œ์ด์œผ๋กœ ์ด ๋ถ€์‰ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ์• ํ”Œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•ญ์˜์˜ ์˜๋ฏธ๋กœ ์•ˆ๋“œ๋กœ์ด๋“œ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‚ฐ์‚ฐ์กฐ๊ฐ๋‚œ ์•„์ดํŒŸ ์กฐ๊ฐ์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๋„ ์ฑ…์ƒ์— ๋ณด๊ด€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ฌ์—ฌ๋ฆ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„์ฃผ์—์„œ ์—ด๋ฆฐ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…๊ณ„ ํ–‰์‚ฌ์—์„œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ด€๊ณ„์ž๋“ค์€ ์• ํ”Œ์˜ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ์ฒ˜์ง€๋ฅผ ๋‘๊ณ  ๋‚จ๋ชฐ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐ์จ์„ ๋‚˜๋ˆˆ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ•ด์กŒ๋‹ค. ์›”ํŠธ ์ฟค ํ…Œํฌ์ธ์‚ฌ์ด์ธ  ์• ๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ๋Š” โ€œ์• ํ”Œ์€ ๊ทธ๋™์•ˆ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ€ํ˜นํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ˜‘์ƒ์„ ํ•ด์™”๋‹คโ€๋ฉฐ โ€œ์ด์ œ ํ˜‘์ƒ๋ ฅ์˜ ๊ท ํ˜•์ด ๋ฐ”๋€Œ๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๋ปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
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Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ retweeted
Culper took this short report off their website but @grok remembers everything. Genius move before AAOI ran to 200+ I am long $CBRS with 1k shares now and will add more over time. Deals with Amazon and AMD havent even lead to any deployments yet. Oracle deal just announced yesterday. I expect CBRS to become THE BEST play on security in AI. Speed is absolutely mandatory for security. It doesnt need to beat nvda to carve out a great niche, being long cbrs does not mean you think nvda or tpuโ€™s are bad, it means you see the value in lightning fast inference in CERTAIN workloads, and can sniff out bullshit in real time. Thanks Culper. Nice to see $VICR hold up well on this cbrs selloff btw. Vicor is the providing world class vertical power modules to CBRS for those unaware- this tech is one of the key reasons Cerebras is even a viable commercial product.
Replying to @TaylorStCap
@grok true that culper shorted $AAOI at $20 ?
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๋ธŒ๋กœ๋“œ์ปด๋„ ์•„๋ฐ”๊ณ ์™€ ์†์žก๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์œ„์น˜์— ์˜จ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งˆ๋ฒจ๊ณผ ๋ฃจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€๋„ ๊ทธ ๊ธธ ์œ„์— ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹๊นŒ
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Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ retweeted
Yesterday, Oracle and Cerebras announced that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) will offer Cerebrasโ€™ fast inference to AI labs, enterprises, and developers. After more than a year of extensive evaluation of Cerebras technology, Oracle selected Cerebras to bring the world's fastest AI inference to its cloud infrastructure. We're excited to bring blazingly fast inference to more AI labs, enterprises, and developers around the world. Together with Oracle.
The worldโ€™s fastest AI is coming to @Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
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Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ retweeted
I cross-checked the two papers Culper cites on $CBRS power draw. The numbers line up with the figures, but the papers describe measurement boundaries and operating conditions more carefully than the surrounding narrative. "Jacquemin et al. 2022 (CS-2)": The quoted 16.1 kW baseline and 22.9 kW peak are correct. Baseline is whole-chassis power (pumps, fans, power-supply losses, I/O), not the wafer alone. Coolant temperature only rose from 23.6 ยฐC to 25.6 ยฐC during the run, consistent with tightly managed thermals. "Golden et al. 2026 (CS-3, Llama-3.1-8B)": Idle power is shown near 80 % of TDP, and both prefill and decode run close to 100 % of TDP. Other systems in the same figure (H100, A100, MI300, Gaudi, SambaNova) sit lower during decode (roughly 45โ€“80 %) and show lower idle. Measurement boundaries differ between board-level tools and wall power, so direct percentage comparisons need that context. From a chip designerโ€™s perspective: large temperature swings create additional mechanical stress on a wafer-scale die and its package connections. Maintaining a more constant background load to limit thermal cycling is a reasonable option under those physical constraints. Operating at low junction temperature with cold coolant is also a different regime from the high-temperature qualification conditions typically used for wear-out lifetime estimates. The practical question is therefore economic: how the extra energy cost of a near-constant load compares with any reliability or lifetime benefit it provides. That balance depends on actual utilization. At high utilization the idle contribution becomes a smaller fraction of total energy; at lower utilization it has a larger effect on total cost of ownership. Fleet-level failure and replacement data would help quantify the trade-off. Not investment advice. Just trying to separate the engineering details from the narrative. $CBRS
This morning, I read the full Culper PDF on Cerebras. I canโ€™t fully verify or conclude on the durability claims yet, but a few things stand out: - Idle power at 70โ€“80% of peak is from measured studies (including one with a Cerebras co-author). Thatโ€™s a real operating-cost issue. - Useful life was stretched from 1.5โ€“3 years to 3โ€“5 years just before the IPO with little explanation. - The ~2-year wear-out estimate relies on Arrhenius modeling from power draw. Actual field failure rates and replacement counts are still missing. - Dummy operations / โ€œdummy tokensโ€ are documented, but they describe a thermal-management approach more than proof of field failure. Hard data on failure rates and replacements would settle a lot of this. Probably coming at Nov 12 earnings. #CBRS
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$ORCL ๊ฐ•ํ•œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ๋ณ€์‹ ?
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High school Semiconductor oracle. What a time to be alive.
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Cerebras๊ฐ€ ์—ดํŒฝ์ฐฝ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด, ์‹ค์ œ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ์ฒด๋กœ ๊ฐ€์—ดยท๋ƒ‰๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•ด ์ ‘์ด‰์ €ํ•ญ๊ณผ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜์œจ์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ณ ์žฅ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์†Œ์žฌ๋งŒ ๋“ค์ด๋ฐ€๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ปจ๋””์…˜์œผ๋กœ ์ฐฉ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒŒ ํฌ์žฅํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋จ ์—„์—ฐํžˆ ์—์ด์ง• ์‹คํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์Œ ์„ธ๋Ÿฌ๋ธŒ๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ๊ณ ์˜จ ์ƒํƒœ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์˜คํ”ˆํ•ด์„œ ๋…ผ๋ž€์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ ํ•  ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•จ
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์š”์ฆ˜ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๋Š” ์†Œ์žฌ ์ด๋ฆ„๋งŒ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ์„ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ค๊ณ„ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ์—ดยท์‘๋ ฅ ํ•ด์„, ์†Œ์ž Aging, EM/IR, PDN ๋ถ„์„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์‹ค์ œ ์‚ฌ์šฉ ์กฐ๊ฑด์—์„œ์˜ ์˜จ๋„, ์ „์•• ๊ฐ•ํ•˜, ์ „๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐ€๋„์™€ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฌ์œ ๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•ค์‹œ์Šค ํ† ํ…œ์ด๋‚˜ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋งŽ์€ ํˆด๋“ค์ด ์กด์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ์ฆ๋น™ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜์—ญ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ œ์ž‘ ์ดํ›„์—๋Š” ์‹ค๋ฌผ ์›จ์ดํผ๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ œ ์ปค๋„ฅํ„ฐยท์ „์›ยท๋ƒ‰๊ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์— ์กฐ๋ฆฝํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ ๋ถ€ํ•˜๋ฅผ ๊ฑธ๊ณ , ์˜จ๋„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ์ ‘์ด‰์ €ํ•ญ, ์ „์•• ๋ณ€๋™, ์˜ค๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณ ์˜จ ๋™์ž‘์‹œํ—˜๊ณผ ์˜จ๋„ยท์ „๋ ฅ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์‹œํ—˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์žฅ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋™์ž‘๊ณผ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์ธ ํŒฝ์ฐฝยท์ˆ˜์ถ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‚ด๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ดํŒฝ์ฐฝ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ถ”์ธก๋งŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜์—ญ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ํ•ด์„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žฌํ˜„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณตํ•™์  ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๊ฒ€์ฆ ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  Cerebras๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ์™„๋ฒฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. EM/IR ๊ฒ€์ฆ์ด ์ปค๋„ฅํ„ฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์  ํ”ผ๋กœ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ณด์ฆํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ธฐํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ์šฉ ์กฐ๊ฑด๊ณผ ๊ณ ์žฅ ๋ฉ”์ปค๋‹ˆ์ฆ˜์—์„œ ์„ค๊ณ„ ์—ฌ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ์ง€, ์ด๋ฅผ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜๋Š” ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ณ ์žฅ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋œ ์ด ๋Œ€๋ชฉ์€ โ€œ40๋…„ ๋œ ์—…์ฒด ์†Œ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ๋‹คโ€๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์—์„œ ๊ณง๋ฐ”๋กœ โ€œ์—ดํŒฝ์ฐฝ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹คโ€๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์œผ๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์†Œ์žฌ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์—ฐํ˜์€ ์ ‘์ด‰์ €ํ•ญ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋„, ์—ด์‚ฌ์ดํด ๋‚ด๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋„, ์ œํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜๋ช…๋„ ์•Œ๋ ค์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ์†Œ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ๋‘๊ป˜, ์ ‘์  ๊ตฌ์กฐ, ์••๋ ฅ ๋ถ„ํฌ, ํ”„๋ ˆ์ž„, ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์™€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ ๊ณต์ •์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์š”๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ดํŒฝ์ฐฝ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ํŒฝ์ฐฝ ์ž์ฒด๋ฅผ ์—†์•ค๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํŒฝ์ฐฝ์„ ์ˆ˜์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ „๊ธฐ์  ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์  ๊ฑด์ „์„ฑ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. Cerebras์˜ โ€œ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์†Œ์žฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ–ˆ๋‹คโ€๋Š” ํ‘œํ˜„์ด ๊ณผ์žฅ๋๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ๋”ฐ์ ธ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฐœ๋ช…์˜ ๋…์ฐฝ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜๋ฌธ์„ ์ œํ’ˆ์˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ ์‹คํŒจ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋ ค๋ฉด ๋ณ„๋„์˜ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋Œ€๋ชฉ์— ์ œ์‹œ๋œ ์†Œ์žฌ ์ •๋ณด๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๊ทธ ๊ฐ„๊ทน์„ ๋ฉ”์šฐ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฝ์—… ํ•ด์ œ๋ฅผ ์•ž๋‘” ์‹œ์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ด ํ™•์ธ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ์˜ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์‹œ์ ๊ณผ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋ฏธ์น  ํšจ๊ณผ๋„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณผ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์š”์ฆ˜ ํ•˜๋“œ์›จ์–ด๋Š” ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ์—ด๋ถ„์„ ์—†์ด ์–‘์‚ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์š” ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ
NEW: We are short Cerebras Systems $CBRS. Cerebras claims to have solved wafer-scale chips. We believe otherwise: $CBRS wafers break down after just ~2 years in use - a lifespan that undermines the entire business. See full report and disclosures on our website, link in bio.
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Mooni Insight ๐Ÿ’ซ retweeted
Fomc ์‹ธํ•˜๋‹ค..
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Congratulation ๐Ÿ‘
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์˜ค๋Š˜ ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์–ด๋‹์ฝœ ์š”์•ฝ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‹ค์  ๋ฏธ์ณค์–ด. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  28๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ 50% ์ด์ƒ ํ–ˆ์–ด. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  29๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ DRAM๊ณผ HBM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์†”๋“œ์•„์›ƒ์ด์•ผ. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๋„˜์ณ๋‚˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ๋„ˆ๋„ค๊ฐ€ ํ˜น์‹œ๋‚˜ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฐ์†Œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ AI๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ด. ๊ทธ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์บํŒŒ ๋Š˜๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ณต๊ธ‰์ด ๋Š˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, HBM ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณ ๋ถ€๊ฐ€๊ฐ€์น˜ ์ œํ’ˆ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ณต์ •์ด ๋” ๋ณต์žกํ•ด์ ธ์„œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์ด ๋Š˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค์–ด. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์”จ๋ฐœ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌํ•œํ…Œ ํ•œ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ ์†์•„๋ณด๋ƒ? ๋‹ˆ๋„ค๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์บํŒŒ ์•ˆ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ๋‹ˆ๋„ค ์žฌ๋ฌด์ œํ‘œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋‹ค ๋œฏ์–ด๋ณด๊ณ  ์บํŒŒ ๋Š˜๋ ค. ๊ตฌ๋ผ์น˜๋‹ค ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋งˆ๋ผ. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ˆ๋„ค๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” HBM4๋Š” ์ˆ˜์œจ์ด ๊ณ„ํš๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž˜ ๋‚˜์™€์„œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋„ ์ƒํ–ฅํ–ˆ๊ณ  4๋ถ„๊ธฐ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ถœํ•˜ํ•ด. HBM4E๋„ ์ด๋ฏธ 2๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ๊ณ  ์ˆœ์กฐ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ์ž˜๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด. ์ ์ธต ๋‹จ์ˆ˜ ๋‚ด๋ฆฐ ๊ฑฐ? ์ ์ธต ๋‹จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋ ค์•ผ ๊ทธ๋‚˜๋งˆ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ๋Š˜๋ฆด ๊ฑฐ ์•„๋‹ˆ์•ผ. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  4Fยฒ? ์ œ๋ฐœ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ตฌํ˜„๊ณผ ์ƒ์šฉํ™” ๊ฐœ๋… ์ข€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด.
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