Economist. YIMBY. Trade Unionist. Giant bath enjoyer. Tweets mostly policy, F1, shitposts, cool data & Mushroom the cat
Greenwich, London
Joined April 2012
- Tweets65.2K
- Following2.1K
- Followers2.9K
- Likes235K
Cal retweeted
A larger proportion of British people eat curry at least once a month than eat roast dinners.
Total globalist victory.
While Brits are most likely to name fish and chips the UK's national dish, only 35% eat it at least once a month - compared to 52% for roast dinners
While only 21% eat a chicken tikka masala at least once a month, this rises to 52% for all forms of curry
yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55…
If this carries on (it probably won’t) a handful of voters in a few marginal seats will decide who will be LOTO and potentially change the trajectory of the British right forever
MRP Poll | Labour Largest Party | 46 Short:
LAB: 280 | 27%
RFM: 130 | 24%
CON: 116 | 21%
LDM: 62 | 10%
SNP: 26 | 3%
PLC: 8 | 1%
GRN: 6 | 10%
Ind: 3
Via @GoodGrowthFdn, 5-10 Sep.
Farage losing to Rupert Lowe in this feels pretty significant
🧵Tracking latest forced choice PM heads to heads
🌹Burnham wins handily against all alternatives, closest but still clear against Badenoch, overwhelmingly against Polanski.
🌳Badenoch beats the other 4 leaders.
➡️Farage only wins against Polanski
🌍Polanski now loses all of the head to heads
Lowe above Farage/Polanski but caveat of much lower name recognition.
Cal retweeted
Here's an alternate read of today's consumer confidence survey to challenge the gloomy takes of this release
🧵
Very striking plunge in UK consumer confidence: biggest single-month drop since Covid April 2020. Usually a drop this steep is event-driven (saw a similar slump around Brexit) whereas it's harder to pin this on anything more specific than rising costs. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
These days…
MP harassed for 'being English' by man who took axe to pub bbc.in/4yyak5u
This is spot on. The route to power in the modern day (and the past few hundred years really) is economic growth achieved through investment in infrastructure and trade. Conquest is zero sum or more accurately negative sum because you damage and devalue the place you invade
站在今天看，俄罗斯这波操作，属于手握着一把天胡的牌打得稀烂。
如果不出兵乌克兰，今天全球AI的牌桌上，除了中美，大概率真得坐着一个俄罗斯。
搞AI、跑大模型，底层逻辑就是“吃电、散热、堆机器”。这两年全世界的数据中心老板都在为电费和机房降温发愁。俄罗斯属于老天爷喂到饭：西伯利亚开窗就是纯天然顶级空调；境内水电、核电、天然气很便宜，当年挖矿的都选西伯利亚。
另外俄罗斯人的数学和算法也强，各大国际编程竞赛，Kaggle机器学习竞赛常被俄国人屠榜。全世界除了中美，俄罗斯也搞出了自己完整的互联网生态：搜东西有Yandex，社交有VK，还有Telegram。现在在美股被炒上天的算力黑马Nebius，核心班底就是原先Yandex那帮俄罗斯人。
如果疫情后俄罗斯出地皮、出冷气、出便宜电，再拉着中国这种基建狂魔帮忙拉高压电网、建厂房、铺光纤，欧美资本开服务器工厂。俄国人完全可以成为欧亚大陆最大的“超级算力工厂”，中美神仙打架，它在中间两头收过路费。
结果呢？普京一拍大腿：不行，我得去抢那几块地。
普京的脑子，彻底停留在了19世纪沙皇俄国那种“开疆拓土”的旧梦里。什么有没有出海口啊，有没有所谓的军事缓冲带啊，就算抢方法也多的是，这可这是21世纪啊！现在的世界霸权争夺，抢的是半导体供应链，抢的是先进算法，抢的是高精尖人才。你去顿巴斯抢了几片烂泥地、几座废弃钢铁厂，代价却是把整个国家的未来都押了上去。
枪声一响，一切全崩了。稍微有点本事的程序员、算法工程师，连夜跑路。Yandex核心技术团队，宁可巨亏，惨烈的断尾求生、割裂母国，也要跑到欧洲重组成Nebius。普京把最懂未来的人，全逼成了难民和海外创业者。
在人工智能技术爆发的黎明前夜，全世界都在疯狂狂飙算力、抢占新工业革命的门票；而俄罗斯的老大，却带着几十万人，在泥潭里打着一百年前的一战式堑壕战。
再说一遍，普京不行，国内崇拜普京的那帮人也不行
It’s ironic that German High Command’s stubbornness and stupidity resulted in them ending the war in the least favourable terms to Germany possible
Oh dear, Peter. In March 1917 the Kaiser's ally, Emperor Karl of Austria, proposed precisely such a peace settlement: restoration of Belgian sovereignty and Alsace-Lorraine to France. He urged Kaiser Wilhelm to agree.
It's called the Sixtus Affair. Rather unfortunate to lecture others on knowing “very little about war or politics” while overlooking one of the most remarkable peace initiatives of the Great War.
Like Putin, Wilhelm rejected the approach because Germany's military leadership still believed victory was possible and refused to surrender its territorial gains. A catastrophic miscalculation. Instead of negotiating from strength in 1917, Germany fought on to unconditional military defeat, revolution and the Kaiser's abdication in 1918.
The real lesson of 1917 is the folly of confusing the ability to continue a war with the wisdom of doing so.
It’s probably the only way to arrive in Britain that doesn’t make me feel slightly sad when I come home from being abroad. All our air and seaports are just a bit rubbish
I have a sudden urge to drive around it* who wants to come?
The Baltic Sea from a different angle. Perspective matters. This looks vastly different and more involved than a standard map of Europe. Source: buff.ly/PvqiVck
Cal retweeted
£100 fine if you call TEA dinner
I just don’t believe the Bank of England is going to hike interest rates four times in the next 12 months. It doesn’t pass the sniff test. Labour market is weak (I’ve never known so many people personally being made redundant), risk of secondary inflation seems low
Job vacancies fall as small firms cut back on recruitment bbc.in/3WjBZK2
Morning @Se_Railway, is there any k own issues with your ticket barriers in Eltham? I’ve been overcharged for several journeys starting/ending there as TfL haven’t recorded me tapping in/out despite me definitely doing so