Peter retweeted
This month shows why a portfolio of diversified strategies can smooth the journey.
Default-style momentum strategies have been heavily caught in the AI sell-off. Longer variants are currently at a maximum historical drawdown of -50%. Shorter variants are at -35%.
Other US-style momentum portfolios not caught in the AI collapse are defensively positioned and are at about an -11% drawdown.
Our US All-Weather, designed for low volatility, is currently down -3.2% and very defensively positioned.
Peter retweeted
NDX 100 has reclaimed its 200 DMA which is upward sloping.
Intermediate bull trend is intact.
Game on. Ignore the doomers.
This is perspective. Caution and fear should be separated by fundamentals. Do you think tech stocks driven by AI have potential? Or is AI just a passing fad 🤔😏
The Nasdaq traded at 60× forward P/E before the dot-com bust. Today, it’s at 17×, its cheapest in 4 years. Sure, whether earnings hold up is debatable. But this is a fear-driven drawdown, not a fundamentals-driven one. Enough with the lazy dot-com comparisons and fearmongering.
1
28
Peter retweeted
Lots of people are applauding yesterday's meteoric rise on the #ASX with the usual "you can't time the market" and other basic motherhood statements.
But buried beneath the hood, like many passive strategies, there looms significant hardship.
Example:
The $MTUM ETF has been a rip-roaring success since its launch in 2013.
But doing some basic homework reveals that, had the ETF been around in 2008, the equity decline would have been nearer -56% and taken quite a few years to recover.
And don't tell me that you would've averaged down into that decline. I'll call BS. I was there in 2008. The world was ending. Sh*t stuck to everything, and nobody wanted to own anything.
I agree you can't time the daily noise. But the daily noise is the start of larger dislocations that can be timed.
Peter retweeted
RBC Capital on NextDC $NXT: "Digital Realty and Goodman Group's acquisition of up to 9.9% of NextDC is validation that fundamental value exists in NextDC shares.
"We recently took a conservative approach to valuation while NextDC worked through delays to its M3 data centre development.
"We now take a more constructive view, and increase our valuation to $11/share (+22%).
"From here, upside may exist if 1) NextDC can de-risk part or all of its development pipeline (e.g. development partnerships); 2) NextDC can provide confidence that delays to its M3 development are <6 months; or 3) macroeconomic conditions improve, driving lower interest rates."
#stockinfocus #XJO #investing
A brilliant observation of the cost of living...
The cost of living in Australia is atrocious. Ive come out for lunch with a friend and couldn’t believe how expensive it was:
- uber $22
- steak $30
- glass of wine $12
- bag of cocaine $350
- punt on the races $3000
Imagine the cost for a whole family
1
36
