Peter retweeted
This month shows why a portfolio of diversified strategies can smooth the journey.
Default-style momentum strategies have been heavily caught in the AI sell-off. Longer variants are currently at a maximum historical drawdown of -50%. Shorter variants are at -35%.
Other US-style momentum portfolios not caught in the AI collapse are defensively positioned and are at about an -11% drawdown.
Our US All-Weather, designed for low volatility, is currently down -3.2% and very defensively positioned.
Peter retweeted
NDX 100 has reclaimed its 200 DMA which is upward sloping.
Intermediate bull trend is intact.
Game on. Ignore the doomers.
Peter retweeted
Lots of people are applauding yesterday's meteoric rise on the #ASX with the usual "you can't time the market" and other basic motherhood statements.
But buried beneath the hood, like many passive strategies, there looms significant hardship.
Example:
The $MTUM ETF has been a rip-roaring success since its launch in 2013.
But doing some basic homework reveals that, had the ETF been around in 2008, the equity decline would have been nearer -56% and taken quite a few years to recover.
And don't tell me that you would've averaged down into that decline. I'll call BS. I was there in 2008. The world was ending. Sh*t stuck to everything, and nobody wanted to own anything.
I agree you can't time the daily noise. But the daily noise is the start of larger dislocations that can be timed.
Peter retweeted
RBC Capital on NextDC $NXT: "Digital Realty and Goodman Group's acquisition of up to 9.9% of NextDC is validation that fundamental value exists in NextDC shares.
"We recently took a conservative approach to valuation while NextDC worked through delays to its M3 data centre development.
"We now take a more constructive view, and increase our valuation to $11/share (+22%).
"From here, upside may exist if 1) NextDC can de-risk part or all of its development pipeline (e.g. development partnerships); 2) NextDC can provide confidence that delays to its M3 development are <6 months; or 3) macroeconomic conditions improve, driving lower interest rates."
#stockinfocus #XJO #investing
Peter retweeted
Australia's job ads rose 23% in June. Here's the catch. A level shift, not a boom.
Full read (out 3 weeks before the ABS): workopia.io/hi/trends/report…
Peter retweeted
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
-John Kenneth Galbraith
Peter retweeted
Trimmed mean inflation comes in at 0.9%qoq and 3.4%yoy ahead of the RBA's expectations. 6 month annualised is 3.9%yoy. Along with the upside surprise on headline inflation there's a strong case for the RBA to hike next week
Peter retweeted
To be clear, the RBA focuses on quarterly trimmed mean CPI.
It came in at 0.9% for Dec.
It needs to be under 0.7% to be consistent with the RBA’s target.
The jobs market is tight and productivity is too low.
The RBA will hike interest rates on Tuesday.
Peter retweeted
This has broken my heart
Justicia por Alex Pretti rinden homenaje en el Hospital donde trabajaba el enfermero asesindo por la gestapo del ICE en Minneapolis
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This is not Alex Pretti
It is a veteran being honored during Covid, as you can see from masking and Covid signage on the floor. Also the audio calls out the veteran's name, it's not "Alex Pretti"
There is no mainstream media evidence his body was paraded at his old VA hospital
abcnews.go.com/Politics/minut…
Peter retweeted
"The sickening lies told about our son by the
administration are reprehensible and disgusting. Alex is clearly not holding a gun when attacked by Trump's murdering and cowardly ICE thugs."
Peter retweeted
One of my former research assistants was killed by ICE in Minneapolis today😢
Alex was the kindest, sweetest human and a ICU nurse with a bright future ahead of him
May his soul rest in peace and this senseless carnage stop💔
Peter retweeted
"The idea that simply because the Minnesota woman 'disobeyed an order,' that she can be shot in the face at point blank is wrong. That's not the law in the United States of America." — Ranking Member @RepRaskin
Peter retweeted
Why are the media ignoring this? For Iran to be free is such wonderful news, spread the word #FreeIran!
