Southern Yinzer

Lake Bachar: Pirates A-to-Z I have a real soft spot for the game’s weirdos. Lake Bachar is one of those guys. Beyond his unique appearance lies an equally unique backstory befitting a dude who would look at home at a GWAR concert or Cryptid Con. But make no mistake -- when your starter is out of the game in the 4th inning and your offense has somehow still kept you in the game, Bachar is the guy you want to see making the walk from the bullpen to give you a fighting chance. And how he got here is a pretty interesting tale. Revisiting The Origin Story Relievers often have a circuitous journeys to the major leagues. But even by that measure, Bachar’s road to Pittsburgh was pretty unlikely. Continuing the football theme started with yesterday’s profile on Braxton Ashcraft, who was an incredible wide receiver in high school, Lake Bachar was originally a kicker. A graduate of Wheaton North High School in Illinois, he attended the famous University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he was an all-conference punter for the Division III football team. I say famous because the UW–Whitewater Warhawks made history as the first school in NCAA history (in any division) to win a three-sport national sweep in a single academic year, claiming national titles in football, basketball, and baseball in 2013–14. In fact, Bachar kicked 3 FGs in the 2014 Stagg Bowl to help the Warhawks win that national championship as a sophomore. There’s absolutely another version of his story where he ends up a kicker in the NFL. But then, his flowing long hair would spend most Sundays under a helmet. And that would be a damn shame. Instead, the two-sport star in high school found that the extra muscle he’d added for football helped his fastball inch up past 90 mph. He walked on to his college baseball team and ended up dominating in a second sport, getting drafted by the Padres in the 5th round of the 2016 draft. You read that right. Bachar was drafted way back in 2016 as a 21-year old and spent 8 years bouncing around the minor leagues before debuting as a reliever for the Marlins at age 29 in 2024. Yo-yoing as a starter and reliever, his slider and curveball were standout pitches that kept him getting opportunities. He was the #29/30 ranked prospect for the Padres when he underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2021 and was later released as a minor league free agent in 2023. Re-signed with the Padres, he was later selected off waivers by Miami where he appeared in 10 games for the Marlins in 2024. He returned to their bullpen in 2025 and went 8-2 with a 3.95 ERA -- numbers he’d repeat in 2026 before being traded to the Pirates at the deadline this past August. Looking Back at 2026 Of course, as we all know, the signature challenge for the 2026 Pirates was a miserable bullpen for two solid months way too early in the season to do much about it. When your entire bullpen falls apart in early May, with 10 blown saves for losses over a two month period, there isn’t much recourse. By the time Bachar was being traded to the Pirates on August 3 in exchange for Brandan Bidois, Hyun Seung Lee and Brian Sanchez, the team was already basically out of it. The remainder of that month would hammer that nail deeper, but it was already there that final day of the trade deadline. Still, it was refreshing to suddenly have a sparkly new bullpen. Bachar was not supposed to be the highlight of the four that came in, but he absolutely was. His 2.57 ERA across 15 appearances, including eight as opener, was pretty strong. He achieved a 0.9 WAR for the Pirates in just 28.0 IP with 32 K and an impressive ability to limit contact. He took over for Carmen Mlodzinski as the team’s opener during the nearly two-month period of covering for Mitch Keller’s spot in the rotation after he went down with his injury in early August. Across both teams in 2026, he had a 78th percentile xERA of 3.39 and a 90th percentile xBA of .199. With fairly pedestrian velocity and offspeed stuff, his breaking offerings are legit elite and led to an outstanding whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate. He was a welcomed addition to the bullpen, for sure. On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond Suffice it to say, Bachar’s unlikely journey to the major leagues finds him as a 31-year old reliever for the Pirates who won’t be arbitration eligible until 2028 in his age 33 season. Sometimes the sport is funny that way. Relievers are traditionally failed starters who may look a little funny on paper. Bachar’s utilitarian history prepares him well as a bulk reliever who may eventually settle in as a RH middle reliever for the Pirates. So long as he continues placing his curveball and slider, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a bedrock of the bullpen. But relievers without strong fastballs have a way of hitting lulls. Just look to Dennis Santana last year as a cautionary tale -- another scrap heap bullpen guy who excelled until he suddenly didn’t. I’m not wishing that juju on anyone, but we have to be realistic and clear-eyed about these late bloomers. I am mostly hopeful Bachar can repeat his 2026 success, with a 3.25-3.50 ERA and a lot of multi-inning relief appearances where he continues limiting hard contact. There will always be a role for a guy like that. A Final Word All signs are pointing to a much better bullpen for the Pirates in 2027, and Bachar appears to be one of the guys who will be penciled in as a component piece. I can’t help but see him as the sort of player the deal being offered by the owners to the MLBPA is meant to serve. Bachar won’t be a free agent until 2031 following his age 36 season. When you think about who would benefit most from an increased minimum salary and a shortened runway to free agency, it’s a guy like Bachar. For now, he’s exactly the archetype a small market team like the Pirates covet -- a seasoned specialist who is inexpensive and dependable. Oh, and the hair. This column is only scratching the surface as Bachar is a pretty intriguing dude. He’s into the paranormal and ghost hunting. He calls his hairstyle “the lettuce.” There’s a lot here. We’ll unpack these mysteries in a future installment, no doubt. #LetsGoBucs

Braxton Ashcraft: Pirates A-to-Z Today we kick-off the alphabetical run-down of the players who appeared in Pirates games in 2026 with a helluva start. Braxton Ashcraft was the Pirates most consistently effective starting pitcher this past season and a tremendous building block who isn’t arbitration eligible until 2029. @AileenBowers20 calls him “Acecraft,” a nickname that is completely fitting. He’s a pitcher who doesn’t have to throw 100-mph to be effective, and in some of his best starts, he didn’t strike out that many batters (though he did have 173 K in 165.1 innings of work). He was just the stopper -- a pitcher who consistently got the win and thwarted losing streaks, ending the season with a 14-6 record, a 3.65 ERA and being named to the NL All-Star team. If not for a brief lull of ineffectiveness in late June and July, he might have made some Cy Young ballots. He was that good. Revisiting The Origin Story He almost played a different sport altogether. With the Steelers desperate for a wide receiver, they could do worse than Ashcraft. During his record-setting junior year of high school in Texas, he caught 204 passes for 2,090 yards and and astounding 37 touchdowns. Not for his career -- in a single. damn. season. His highlight during his junior year was a 7 TD game. And we're talking about Texas-brand high school football. In his senior year, Ashcraft concentrated on baseball and a $1.825 million bonus from the Pirates in the second round of the 2018 MLB draft drew him away from playing at Baylor, his hometown school. His early work in the system did not match the pitcher he would become. His first season with the Single-A WV Power was poor, with a 1-9 record and a 5.77 ERA. Then came the injury bug. He underwent surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in 2019, and his knee during 2020, before moving up to Greensboro in 2021 where after 10 starts he went out with Tommy John surgery. That many surgeries so early in a career may have kept him from ever fulfilling his promise. But not Ashcraft, who reemerged in 2023 as an all-new pitcher. His velocity took a big step forward that season and he ended with a 2.39 ERA across 52.2 IP and a promotion to Altoona. He returned to AA the next season and demonstrated an uncanny ability to attack hitters with just 8 BB in 53.2 innings. In 2025, he was eventually called up to join the Pirates' bullpen before entering the rotation. His 2.71 ERA across 69.2 innings in his first taste of major league action was a sign of things to come. Looking Back at 2026 Ashcraft started the season as an unquestioned member of the starting rotation alongside Paul Skenes and rookie Bubba Chandler. Those three remain mainstays, alongside mid-year addition Jared Jones back from injury, creating a formidable rotation for the foreseeable future. Much of the attention to start the year was on others in the rotation, with Chandler expected to challenge for ROY and Skenes for his second CYA. But it was Ashcraft who got everyone’s attention. After a solid start to March and April, his 1.99 ERA across 40.1 innings in May announced the arrival of a truly special pitcher. A fast worker, Ashcraft is typically the first out of the dugout and sprinting to the mound. He keeps hitters off-balance by getting set and firing it in as soon as possible, creating an unrelenting pace. It leads to a high degree of efficiency -- just a 1.9 BB/9 against 9.4 K/9. In 2026, Ashcraft decreased his reliance on his slider -- traditionally his bread and butter -- through a combination of a four-seam fastball, a resurgent curveball, and a sinker thrown nearly as hard as his fastball. It’s a repertoire that worked really well… until the movement on his slider faded in July. A rough set of starts led to a change of mix to play up the sinker and curveball even more, giving way to more dominance in August (2.13 ERA in 38.0 IP) before inning limits forced him out in early September. He went far deeper into the season than I expected, going from 117 IP in 2025 across AAA and the Pirates, to 165.1 IP last season. In his final start of the year on September 5, he had 9 K in 5 IP, with zero signs of arm fatigue. He’ll be locked and loaded for a 200-inning season the next time he pitches. On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond But will any MLB pitcher have an opportunity to throw that many innings next season? That’s the question as the sport hurtles toward the December 1, 11:59pm deadline and the start of the owner lockout. If we end up getting a shortened season of some sort, Ashcraft would still seem to be super well-positioned as the #2 behind Skenes. He had a 3.07 ERA in his first 16 starts of the season, suggesting he can be counted on to deliver, especially when the arm is super fresh. There are very few question marks in his game. He is coming off a season where he was 95th percentile in overall pitching run value, driven by an incredible 99th percentile breaking run value. His 97th percentile chase % was elite, as was his 95th percentile BB %. As a guy who attacks hitters, his 22nd percentile hard-hit % and 21st percentile average exit velocity can get him in trouble. His struggles last summer related to a drop-off in movement on his slider, leaving it in the middle of the plate, which he corrected for. The hard sinker induced prodigious groundball outs, and a better defense behind him (especially at 3B) would help. But folks, this is a starter around which to construct the future. Some may be hesitant to lock him up given his TJ surgery in 2021, but I’m just the opposite. Buddy boy has a brand-new arm as far as I’m concerned. I’d be in favor of buying him out of a free agent season or two, especially if we get the cap and have extra cash to spend retaining players. A Final Word Ashcraft reminds me a little of another pitcher with a Texas connection -- Mike Scott of the Astros. When his slider gave him some troubles, he locked in on a split-finger fastball and rode that to a 2.22 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP that earned him the Cy Young Award in 1986. By early August of this past season, Ashcraft’s hard sinker produced a ground-ball rate of nearly 73%, placing him in the top 5% of the league. Leaning on the sinker helps his slider and curveball play up while saving the arm from fatigue. It could be the winning combination that, like Scott, wins him his own CYA someday. For now, he’s an incredible, controllable #2 pitcher to pencil in for years (and years!) to come. #Acecraft, indeed. #LetsGoBucs

Lonnie White Jr. Is Back From the Dead After a couple seasons of looking like a complete bust, Lonnie White Jr. is suddenly back on the prospect radar. And not just a little bit. He's gone from a guy we'd all but written off to someone who might actually contribute in Pittsburgh in 2027. Talk about an unlikely opening paragraph. White was about as far from prospect status as you could get, having weathered a tumultuous couple seasons repeating the A+ level. But the lightbulb turned on this past season, and after (finally) dominating in Greensboro, he went on to AA Altoona and had a breakout season. As we contemplate how to fill roles on the field should anyone go down in 2027, White should probably be on a shortlist of guys who deserve a shot. This Was Not Expected Before the 2026 season, folks were most familiar with White as a part of the upside talent acquired when Hank Davis was selected as an underslot #1 in 2021. White was taken as the CB-B selection eight picks ahead of Bubba Chandler. Injuries kept him off the field until 2023 when he looked pretty good between rookie ball and Bradenton, But that’s when the troubles started. When I say that White was off the prospect map, I mean utterly and completely. In 2024, he put up a .167/.275/.340 performance in 375 PA at Greensboro. It might have been thought of as an aberration, except that he wasn’t much better the next season in 2025 with a .723 OPS. Once a fixture of Pirates Top-30 lists, he fell off by the end of 2025. I frankly had forgotten about him as he set out to repeat A+ for the third time in 2026. Who is This Guy? It’s easy to forget that, as arduous a time as he had since being drafted in 2021, White was still just 23 years old at the start of the 2026 season. But given his narrative, it was a “put up or shut up” season for him. And the dude absolutely rose to the occasion. White looked like a completely different hitter to start the season, with a .298/.413/.595 line with 7 HR in just 104 PA that got him promoted to AA Altoona. And after an adjustment period there, he started raking again, putting up an .866 OPS with another 19 HR. While there is some swing-and-miss in his profile (a 29.6% K-rate that is just barely acceptable), he complements his bat with speed on the base paths (21 SB) and above-average defense at all three outfield positions. A Look to 2027 White will likely start at AAA alongside Gray. Also in Indy will likely be Jhostynxon Garcia, a player with a similar profile and capability of playing all outfield positions. Both he and White will be watching the outfield in Pittsburgh closely as Esmerlyn Valdez returns to pair with Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in the Bucco outfield. Valdez’s incredible summer with the Pirates in 2026 won him the starting RF role and cemented him in the cleanup spot leading up to his injury near the end of the season. The news is that he is completely repaired and looking forward to his first full season in 2027. But we all remember what a difficult August Valdez had, with no power and a ton of strikeouts. If he comes back to start 2027 with similar production, one of these two may get a shot. The Bottom Line It’s awesome to have real outfield depth in AAA, and depending on when the MLB season starts, we’ll have additional data as Garcia and White will start up their 2027 minor league seasons this spring. No one expected White to be challenging for a role with the major league club, not after his disappearing act in 2024 and 2025. He’s back on BA’s Top-30 list at #29 -- a very difficult feat once you get excommunicated. I find myself pulling for him as an unlikely prospect. Rooting for the underdog is kind of my thing. I mean, of course it is. I’m a Pirates fan. #LetsGoBucs

Murf Gray is an X Factor Under any other circumstances, Murf Gray’s 2026 season would have been the year’s biggest development. Coming on the heels of Konnor Griffin’s meteoric rise and during a year where the Pirates were actually competing allowed his development to fly under the radar. But make no mistake -- it’s a really big deal. It isn’t every year that a prospect moves through three levels, dominating at every stop en route to a 32 HR season. Gray’s .305/.402/.567 line across roughly equal time at A, A+ and AA is one of the best offensive performances of the year in the minor leagues. So why aren’t more people freaking out about him? No Respect MLB Pipeline ranks Gray at #89 in its Top-100, with him entering the list in mid-July. But on the Baseball America side, he has yet to break the big board, settling for #4 in the Pirates system behind recently-drafted Derek Curiel (who has yet to play a single inning in the minors). I don’t get it, personally. Gray is still just 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until December 30. It took him a bit to get settled at AA, but dominated in his final 28 games with a .297/.388/.515 line over his last 121 PA with an acceptable 20.6% K rate. We talk about AA being the dividing line? Well, here he is folks. That’s a .900+ OPS. And get this -- he hit RHP better than LHP, with a .997 OPS against righties across the three levels with an .868 OPS against lefties. What’s a guy got to do to get the national media to pay any attention? Really, Defense? That’s the Concern? The oft-repeated criticism on him by arm-chair X users is that his defense is perceived as sub-standard. And really, everyone is just repeating the same 1-2 lines some mercenary blogger got paid $50 to write up for BA. I saw him play 3B in person this past season and watched several games via MiLB -- his defense certainly didn’t stand out as awful. He’s a big guy who maybe doesn’t move laterally as well as he could, but he makes the routine plays just fine. So, can he stick at third? He got 94 starts at the hot corner across three levels, and he finished with a .950 fielding percentage. He made six of his 12 errors in just 35 games at AA which is a little concerning, but I think we can also point at the overall adjustment that level requires. I’m not all that concerned. Looking Ahead to the Future All that said, I’ve come around on the idea that better defense needs to be a goal for the Pirates as they improve run prevention. I’ve advocated for KBO slugger Si Hwan Roh as a 3B target in part because he offers GG-quality defense coupled with the potential for strong offense. I could also be happy with Gray at 3B and Nick Gonzales moving back to 2B, especially with KG playing above-average defense at SS between them. But I’ve warmed to the idea that Gray is really Ryan O’Hearn’s heir apparent -- a 3B/1B/DH who gets in the lineup every night but isn’t the everyday 3B. As Flores showed over the final few weeks, there is a role for a RH hitter to pair with Spencer Horowitz at 1B. With O’Hearns departure, one could imagine a DH share between Flores and Gray that could be very effective, it’s what I dreamed about for Hank Davis and Endy Rodriguez, And of course, Roh and Gray on the same Pirates squad would also mean being able to move on from Jared Triolo. Cue the marching band. The Bottom Line 📌 If 2027 was a regular year, Gray would still likely need to start at AAA, meaning the Pirates would be without a starting 3B to begin the year. But with the lockout likely to extend into June or later, Gray may in fact be ready for “opening day” sometime next summer. The 2025 draft, which brought us both Seth Hernandez and Gray as 1A and 1B in the first round, may end up being a crowning achievement of the Cherington era, which is saying a lot after the 1-2 punch of Paul Skenes and Griffin. We will find out next year either way. #LetsGoBucs

The Pirates’ Bullpen Still Needs Help Over the last couple days, I’ve made the argument that shoring up the bullpen is the most important activity for Ben Cherington this offseason. More important than re-signing Brandon Lowe (which, come on, we all know isn’t happening). More important than signing a lefty starter (which I still think is badly needed). And even more important than signing a legit 3B (there’s always Triolo, I guess). The bullpen needs to be buttoned up so tight, it would take the jaws of life to pry a lead away. I have PTSD after the first half of last year and I just can’t live through that again. Except, you know, right now, helping you remember the misery so you join me on this crusade. It Was Bad, Mmmkay? Travel back with me as we arrive in mid-April 2026, during what should have been a time of great joy in Pittsburgh. The Pirates offense was among the best in baseball, scoring runs hand over fist while the trio of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft all had sub-3.00 ERAs. But then it happened. On April 11, in the 14th game of the season, Dennis Santana has a blown save in a game that the Pirates would end up winning 4-3 against the Cubs in the 11th inning. Well, that’s not so bad… Until the next night, when Justin Lawrence blows another save in a game the Pirates would lose 7-6. It began a two-month odyssey of bullpen failures I never want to experience again: 4/12, BS, Lawrence (Loss) 4/16, BS, Ramirez (Loss) 4/18, BS, Sisk (Loss) 4/25, BS, Mattson (Win) 4/27, BS, Sanatana (Loss) 5/10, BS x 2, Mattson & Ramirez (Loss) 5/15, BS, Soto (Loss) 5/19, BS, Sisk (Loss) 6/3, BS, Soto (Loss) 6/7, BS, Sisk (Loss) 6/13, BS, Montgomery (Win) 6/19, BS, Montgomery (Loss) Never, Ever Again That is 12 blown saves in two months, 10 of them for losses. On June 20, the Pirates were 38-39, a game under .500 having given away 10 contests in which they were winning until a reliever melted down. And this says nothing about the games where we were down a run or two, within striking distance, before a reliever let the other team pile on more runs. Every. Single. Night. The bullpen was like playing Russian Roulette. I shutter thinking about it. Look at the names. Yes, there are guys like Justin Lawrence, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana -- pitchers who were demoted or jettisoned. But Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramirez and Evan Sisk? That’s 3/8ths of your 2027 bullpen. I won’t go back there. I can’t. I physically can’t. The Bottom Line 📌 Yes, the bullpen recovered. Montgomery went on to pitch 24.2 scoreless innings over the final two months of the season as he ascended as our nails closer. Yohan Ramirez had a 1.43 ERA from June 6 through the end of the season. And Even Sisk was… Evan Sisk. We added a poison ivy-addled Luke Weaver and a surprisingly effective Lake Bachar at the trade deadline, with both returning for 2027. There’s good reason to think the bullpen could be a strategic strength in 2027. But listen, I may be a week late with this spooky tale, but we thought the exact. same. thing. heading into 2026. Justin Lawrence gave up 1 ER in 17.2 IP to finish the 2025 season. We thought the bullpen was going to be fine. We mustn’t make the same mistake again. We need at least one more late-inning LHP. We could probably stand to add another middle innings RHP. We need tested talent, not reclamation projects. And that costs money. We would have been in the playoffs if not for the bullpen last year. Never forget. #LetsGoBucs

We Gotta Trade Mitch Keller Lost amongst all the debate about whether to bring Brandon Lowe back on a multi-year deal is the fact that the Pirates don’t have much money to spend this offseason. The anticipated payroll as we currently stand is somewhere in the $102M range, which is just under the $106M spent on payroll in 2026. Can the payroll go up? I suppose it’s possible, but what was spent this past year was already a sizable increase over the payroll in 2025. I don’t think it’s likely that Nutting will approve another $20M+ increase for 2027. And that’s what it would take, at least, to retain Lowe. Yesterday it was announced that a qualifying offer was made to him in the $23M range. I can only assume that the team already knows he will decline that offer amidst a column from Ken Rosenthal predicting Lowe gets 5/$150M on the open market. Seeking Wiggle Room And what if the Pirates did something crazy and figured out how to keep an aging Lowe into his age 37/38 season. What then? As we sit, that would be the only acquisition possible this offseason, leaving the rotation and bullpen as-is and counting on Nick Gonzales to once again be a starter at 3B. Is that really what offseason success looks like? Looking at the team’s current contracts, there are only two that would afford any sort of payroll relief if moved: Mitch Keller who is owed $18.4M in 2027 and $20.4M in 2028, and Bryan Reynolds who is signed for another four seasons at $15.25M per. I would personally be fine with moving both this offseason, but I don’t think the Pirates are prepared to move on from Reynolds. He was signed at a time when the Pirates had truly no one capable of putting up compelling offense. His .789 OPS last season is pretty par for the course over his last five seasons. He also paired that with outstanding defense in LF. While I think they will likely want to move that contract before it runs out, I don’t see it this offseason. That leaves Keller who is coming off his worst season in 2026 just as his salary climbs into pricey-even-for-the-Yankees territory. Moving On From Keller I’ve advocated in this column the need to add a left-handed starter to complement the RH starters that are the core of the team. I see that alongside another left-handed leverage reliever as essential acquisitions this offseason. I just don’t see that as possible without moving Keller. But how would that get done? I see three options: ▫️Offer $$$ -- Keller is owed $38.8M over the next two seasons. The Pirates would need to pay roughly half of that to make him attractive to other teams. And it would take a team that is convinced he can still be effective. That might be possible, but it works against freeing up capital. ▫️Package with Prospects -- Keller could be unloaded if Cherington attached a top-100 prospect like Edward Florentino (ideally him and not another) alongside a top-10 prospect like Jhostynxon Garcia, effectively selling them. I could be convinced if the salary relief went into areas of need. ▫️Package with Skenes -- This isn’t very likely, but Skenes represents another ~$10M in arbitration, and is likely to be moved next season anyway. He’s coming off a down season, but still has peripheral numbers that would make him coveted. Attaching him to Keller would clear out $28M for 2027 and beyond. The Bottom Line 📌 Of these options, I see the spending of prospect capital to free up resources as the most likely path. That would provide ~$20M to spend on 3B, a left-handed SP and/or a reliever, which is a tall order with limited resources. I remain bullish on Si Hwan Roh, the Korean 3B who just got posted and would likely take $8M-$10M AAV to sign. A soft-tossing lefty like Patrick Sandoval in the $5M range still provides another ~$5M for a LH reliever like Steven Okert or Taylor Rogers. At $20M spent, I’d call that a really successful offseason entering the unknown timetable of the 2027 season. And if it took moving Edward Florentino to make it happen? I’m okay with it. #LetsGoBucs