StreetSignal

Nothing will happen to Jensen over the next 6 months, this story will largely die down in media / finance But Democrats will call him into Congress They will investigate the fuck out of GPU sales to Chinese companies And hammer him w questions That's when the shoe /could/ drop

Texas's incoming governor wants a pause on new data center approvals while more than half of state's ~34 GW pipeline is still only announced so the real question now is who already has power and who is still waiting to build. Here's how much capacity companies have lined up in Texas: • $AMZN ~5,700 MW • $GOOGL ~4,500 MW • $MSFT ~1,300 MW • $IREN ~1,300 MW • $META ~1,200 MW • $HUT ~1,100 MW • $CIFR ~1,000 MW • $GLXY ~900 MW • $CORZ ~900 MW

Putting all the pieces together we believe Big Tech capex growth rate now peaks in 2027 vs our previous view that would not happen until 2028/2029. While Big Tech and hyperscaler capex should still easily exceed $1 trillion in 2027 the growth rate into 2028 will clearly moderate significantly as the data center buildout comes at a much slower place given the political map especially in the state of Texas🌊🎯

Dylan Patel says SemiAnalysis expects $11 trillion of AI capex globally by the end of 2029, about $7 trillion of it debt “The other question is sort of who pays for it. So one of the things that we’ve said is by end of 2029 we expect $11 trillion of capex globally on AI." "Five of that being from cash and equity and seven of that being debt. And that’s a tremendously ridiculous number to most people. And this has been our view for a while." "And then and now over the last sort of two months if you watch debt markets the US 10year yield has been spiking like crazy. And it’s caused a lot of pandemonium in the market. So you know the capex that’s coming online is humongous. And and most of that capex is for the chips themselves.” ________ Source and full breakdown of his presentation: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…

The $ANT S-1/A gives us some insights into a restructured $AMZN deal, and the potential headwind that posed to AWS growth this past quarter. It's possible that AWS & Anthropic restructured a deal this past quarter and that it partially explains the Q3 AWS miss (39% vs. the ~42% the buyside was looking for)... and the Anthropic S-1/A actually allows us to size this. The filing says S&M as a % of revenue fell in Q3 partly due to "changes in the terms of our channel partner distribution arrangements." So something changed. Anthropic books CSP marketplace sales gross and runs the partner's cut through S&M (that cut is AWS/Google/MSFT revenue). Piecing it together: (i) Share of revenue sold through CSP marketplaces was 48% in 1H26 and 44% for 9M26, which implies ~40% in Q3, or ~$6.8B. (ii) S&M was $2.4B in Q3. Partner fees were ~$351M in 2025 ($43M of 2024 S&M less $33M of advertising, plus a reported $341M increase in partner fees), and the filing says they rose $4.8B Y/Y over 9M 2026. That leaves ~$530M of non-partner marketing over 9M 2026, or ~$207M in Q3 with a modest step-up through the year. This implies Q3 partner fees were ~$2.15B. (iii) That puts the partners' cut at ~35% in Q2 vs ~32% in Q3. ~3.7 pts on ~$6.8B = ~$250M of fees partners didn't collect. The $250M is across all CSPs, and the filing doesn't say which partner's terms changed (the $110B AWS compute agreement isn't described as amended; Google's & MSFT's are). If AWS absorbed ~75-100% of it, that's ~55-75 bps of Y/Y growth. So something was restructured, but the headwind looks quite manageable. I think it explains a piece of the miss, not the whole thing (as shown here, I think capacity timing is the larger culprit: xitter.gq/PrefShares/status/2116…). Table attached.

Super Intelligence WILL EAT MANY ENTIRE businesses, industries and professions in the next few *months* and *quarters*. The rest will follow. The physical world will take a bit longer. That needs A LOT of humanoid robots. Strap yourselves in.

Breaking down Anthropic’s 3Q26 inference costs, we can see that SpaceX captured the vast majority of the incremental spend, while AWS, GCP, and, to a lesser extent, Azure captured just $820 million combined. This makes it hard not to speculate that Anthropic renegotiated compute pricing with its cloud providers in 3Q26, weighing on AWS’s and GCP’s growth.

Bill Ackman reveals Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are now about a third of his portfolio, each bought when the stock fell, and says it’s interesting when a company announces "enormous demand" and its stock goes down “I would say every business today is either AI related or should be or is going to be disrupted by AI. So I think that’s the assessment that you have to do." "You know, we purchased Amazon after Trump announced liberation tariffs. We acquired Meta after they disappointed people by committing a large amount of money to capex. And the same with Microsoft." "You know, it’s sort of an interesting environment when you have a company come out publicly and say, ‘We have enormous demand for our service. Therefore, we have to invest well in excess of what we expected in capex just to try to meet the demand from our product.’ And then stock price goes down." "And that’s what led to an investment in Microsoft. But it’s probably, those names represent about a third of our portfolio today.”

So many mixed signals in the market right now 🟢 AWS sold out through 2027, with a good chunk of 2028 already committed 🟡 $INTC reporting +78% data center revenue growth, yet delivering absolutely dogshit guidance 🔴 Kioxia guiding for just +1% QoQ revenue growth in the middle of a NAND supercycle 🟡 Samsung and SK Hynix reporting tremendous earnings, but uncertainty around LTA terms raising too many doubts about pricing resilience 🟢 Anthropic struggling with compute constraints 🟢 SemiAnalysis forecasting 50 GW of additional data center capacity in 2027, with demand for compute still exceeding supply 🟡 Google Cloud growing +103% YoY, Azure +48%, and AWS +39%, but negative FCF crushing sentiment 🔴 Memory prices crushing consumer electronics demand 🟡 Neoclouds facing increasingly difficult financing conditions, even as demand for their capacity continues to grow The market doesn't trust the sustainability of AI demand

David Sacks says $GOOG looks oversold here "I'm seeing people post that Alphabet's Google search revenue dropped below 50% of total revenue for the first time, and they're making it sound like that's a catastrophic situation. Basically playing into the narrative that the search business is going to be disrupted by AI. And that's what it seems like on the surface. But when I dug into the numbers, it didn't really seem that bad at all." "It’s true that Google searches' relative share decreased, but its absolute revenue still increased. If you look at Google search revenue year over year, it was still up 12%. It increased from $56 billion to $63 billion. So there's still a roughly $7 billion year over year increase in Google search. Google search is still thriving." "I think you could say it's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet. And the reason why the share fell below 50% is because other Alphabet businesses are simply growing much faster. And the main one is Google Cloud, which basically doubled year over year to $37 billion." "So it's the rise of the Google Cloud business that has made Google search seem like it's on the decline. But I tend to think it's a good thing that Alphabet is now finally getting some of these other businesses to really work and to finally diversify the revenue. Diversifying from search has been something they've wanted to do for a long time. They now have all these other segments, you've got YouTube, you've got G Suite subscriptions." "So in any event, I tend to think Google's a little bit oversold on this news today." Jason: "I just literally bought some shares. So I'm long. I just bought more Google while doing the show. David Friedberg: “Just remember, Alphabet owns 6% of SpaceX and like 15% of Anthropic as well. I think 85% of Waymo.”

$INTC bloody start 28% Is it the entry time? Intel experts?